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  • time to cut risk and low size until perform again

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    • Wow. What a terrible terrible day. It just may be that this EA is done and dusted unfortunately. Its not possible that a single subscription has made any money at all.

      Comment


      • I'll unsubscribed from this signal. I'll found EA's that use the same strategy. If you use an EA (e.g RobinVol) you can implement a trailing stop loss which reduces DD.



        Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
        Wow. What a terrible terrible day. It just may be that this EA is done and dusted unfortunately. Its not possible that a single subscription has made any money at all.

        Comment


        • Generally speaking I would like to ask to Hans which is his rule to disable a trading system. Is it correct to stop a trading system when it touches two times the max drawdown seen during the validation process?

          I am not saying that this is the case of HansTrend now so please don't just reply that this is not the moment for HT and a recover will arrive.

          Comment


          • Interesting what are the official instructions about the DD that is now double of max ever historical DD.
            It is always tricky to leave the ship and maybe miss the recovery.

            I subscribed to 6 months upfront, but when we exceeded the max DD I pulled the plug out. For now I am right, but who knows for tomorrow... But we have to choose so I chose.

            I am not angry at all to Hans. I lost money (in my balance and subscription) but past performance is past performance. I admit I had very big hope in HansTrend as it had low DD and was long time proven, based on trends, and so on.

            But when such systems, long time proven, seems to fail, then you don't trust any system, even if good RR, and long time proven

            Comment


            • Originally posted by BMM View Post
              Generally speaking I would like to ask to Hans which is his rule to disable a trading system. Is it correct to stop a trading system when it touches two times the max drawdown seen during the validation process?

              I am not saying that this is the case of HansTrend now so please don't just reply that this is not the moment for HT and a recover will arrive.
              up, please

              Comment


              • Yeah now it takes 5 months profit to make back this drawdown....2% month vs 10%. Today watching it trade was one of the most frustrating thing to see. Long gold oh no stopped short gold oh no stopped there too short AU finally relief but oh no don't get excited more failure to come with long EU. Maybe this thing shouldn't trade during July. I dunno. But really this is shit, this signal there were such hopes. Since going live it has only lost, its literally not possible anyone made profits from the most expensive signal with the best history. It's enough to make you just scream at the whole signal thing in general. Gimme a break forex God. ****.

                Comment


                • Well if you had done some analysis you would have noticed that these patterns were somewhat statistically present - based on EUR/USD the pair has a >80% failure rate on Mondays like other volatility breakout bots (and this is really just another volatility breakout bot like Fx Monetiser or RobinVol -this isn't human trading your paying for).

                  Worth noting that RobinVol has a drawdown period as long as 6 months, and is classified as out of profitability with the market on event of 30% DD. The summer months of June-August are expected low volume- high volatility periods with narrow support - resistance channels that hinder volatility breakout bots. Thus we should expect to see results improve in Sep-Nov.

                  The highest probably of success for this bot is with AUD/USD which is ~70%. Note most people recommend that you switch of volatility breakout bots on Monday - in this case I would disable EUR/USD pair on Mondays. Reality is your better off buying the EA and running it yourself and disabling it on Mondays. Cheaper too, in the long run. I made the mistake subscribing to this signal thinking that there were significant modifications to the basic EA principal that would make this strategy more affordable - unfortunately based on my analysis the only advantage this EA has is on the AUD/USD pair - and the same results should be achieved by tweaking the EA settings on commercial EAs. These bots are based on statistics and probability - it will be profitable again - but as a signal I don't feel it's practical when the EA with similar functions is around $200-$400 and offers more flexibility.

                  alazarus.



                  Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
                  Yeah now it takes 5 months profit to make back this drawdown....2% month vs 10%. Today watching it trade was one of the most frustrating thing to see. Long gold oh no stopped short gold oh no stopped there too short AU finally relief but oh no don't get excited more failure to come with long EU. Maybe this thing shouldn't trade during July. I dunno. But really this is shit, this signal there were such hopes. Since going live it has only lost, its literally not possible anyone made profits from the most expensive signal with the best history. It's enough to make you just scream at the whole signal thing in general. Gimme a break forex God. ****.

                  Comment


                  • @Hans
                    It would be really good to hear from Hans right about now.

                    Looks like another basket of AU shorts will hit all SL. Hopefully not but it looks pretty obvious it will happen.

                    Hans are you taking note of this, are you testing to keep this EA versatile. Mate this really sucks a lot of us putting our hard earned money into an EA that isn't adapting right now. To make it worse it actually gets the direction correct but it just doesn't give itself enough bloody room to move. Long EU and short AU SHOULD be winning trades this week. Same goes for most of the trades except for last week which was just a shocker all around with NFP whipsaw.

                    I honestly don't know if I can stomach paying any more money for this EA Hans. It's seriously disappointing. I am sure for you too, but likely more for us as it's expensive and looked promising, and you have other signals and lots of people trading for that you make money off. Us subs for HansTrend don't have that luxury. Would really like some reaction to the drawdwon records. I am a firm beliuever of you get what you pay for and the boxes are well and truly not being ticked right now.

                    @alazaurs
                    I must admit that I hadn't gone into it that in depth. IUt is a good idea, however I would have thought that Hans or his team of experts would have noticed this already. I mean it just stats so i don't know why this wasn't already picked up. If I knew how to code an EA I would always be looking out for these type of issues. but thank you kindly I may go an do some analysis on other signals too.

                    Comment


                    • HansTrend is annually being able to have a return of ~45% with only a peak draw-down of 5% (max ~1.25% per pair).
                      Until now we have a peak drawdown of ~10%

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by berndbread View Post
                        Until now we have a peak drawdown of ~10%

                        it means ~2 times max historical DD ----> trading system has to be paused accordingly to normal knowledge about TS

                        I asked info about this common sense rule in the last days without any answer so I am forced to escalate my questions:

                        1) Hans, is two times max historical DD also your limit to stop a trading system?

                        2) Hans, are you going to stop Hanstrend due to point 1 ?

                        you did your best bringing us Hanstrend and I still thank you for that. This could happen and maybe happened, it 's normal with trading systems and just bad luck that happened as soon as you started selling it

                        Comment


                        • UPDATE:

                          Currently analyzing each single order which I made the last 3 months, which I have been doing for 3,5 weeks now, basically after 1,5 month+ of losses because I want to know whether this is supposed to happen and it will get back to the way it used to trade, OR it actually needs a small adjustment. Meanwhile I will continue trading HansTrend as before, and will post here again once I have come to a conclusion/result and whether I will change HansTrend slightly or not.

                          For now, there is no way that there is a certain rule for stop trading HansTrend, there also never has been. I tyraded my system and just let it ran, never looked back, and found out it was doing great, while there has been some small losses or even almost a year of no growth at all (just around 0%), but now I see that I have been making losses 3 months in a row, which is a record and unfortunately this means I need to at least analyze the cause of it and come with a solution.

                          All 4 pairs will stay in place, that's for sure, as all pairs seem to lose more than usual (in the past). Furtermore I can already say I will be looking specifically at the TP/SL setting as I already saw MANY orders didn't hit TP, while the orders stayed perfectly in gain... untill the trend reversed and went straight to SL. This is a clear sign that it could be that the TP level is too optimistic for the current market. I won't go into detail that much, as this is up to me and my own calculations, however some things many will agree with me, that for this time being the TP is a bit too optimistic.

                          To be continued. Hopefully during next week... same goes for answering any questions based on my reply here.

                          Ah and don't worry, I'm on this already before you guys start questioning I let you guys alone in the dark.

                          Cheers,
                          Hans

                          PS. During the last 3 months I have made NO changes to the strategy, if I did.. I would have told it.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Hans Bowles View Post
                            UPDATE:

                            Currently analyzing each single order which I made the last 3 months, which I have been doing for 3,5 weeks now, basically after 1,5 month+ of losses because I want to know whether this is supposed to happen and it will get back to the way it used to trade, OR it actually needs a small adjustment. Meanwhile I will continue trading HansTrend as before, and will post here again once I have come to a conclusion/result and whether I will change HansTrend slightly or not.

                            For now, there is no way that there is a certain rule for stop trading HansTrend, there also never has been. I tyraded my system and just let it ran, never looked back, and found out it was doing great, while there has been some small losses or even almost a year of no growth at all (just around 0%), but now I see that I have been making losses 3 months in a row, which is a record and unfortunately this means I need to at least analyze the cause of it and come with a solution.

                            All 4 pairs will stay in place, that's for sure, as all pairs seem to lose more than usual (in the past). Furtermore I can already say I will be looking specifically at the TP/SL setting as I already saw MANY orders didn't hit TP, while the orders stayed perfectly in gain... untill the trend reversed and went straight to SL. This is a clear sign that it could be that the TP level is too optimistic for the current market. I won't go into detail that much, as this is up to me and my own calculations, however some things many will agree with me, that for this time being the TP is a bit too optimistic.

                            To be continued. Hopefully during next week... same goes for answering any questions based on my reply here.

                            Ah and don't worry, I'm on this already before you guys start questioning I let you guys alone in the dark.

                            Cheers,
                            Hans

                            PS. During the last 3 months I have made NO changes to the strategy, if I did.. I would have told it.
                            Nice
                            If you can get it to make profit again, I will become a client for sure (Goldstar is doing fine :P).

                            Goodluck

                            Comment


                            • Here's my analysis Hans, feel free to disagree, but I hope you consider the below. I have unsubscribed to your signal because I am using RobinVol EA to get better results than your signal using the below modifications -

                              1. EUR/USD - 83% losing trades on Monday, narrowing of pip channel movement on last 3 months - note june-august so far 300 pip range - hence breakout reaches 4hr and 1hr resistance and support zones very easily from which they pull back from. Going against the general trend down (so longs) make up 10x more losses over the last 3 months. High number of losses in this pair in April because of longs that closed at loss.

                              2. AUD/USD - best probability pair, majority of losses on longs

                              3. USD/JPY - majority of losses on shorts

                              4. XAU/USD - majority of losses on longs

                              Some suggestions -

                              1. Disable trading of EA and signal on Mondays (or only enable on AUD/USD).

                              2. Determine long term trend on weekly/monthly charts then based on this amend EA every 1-3 months to only trade one side - e.g short only on EUR/USD, no longs. This may reduce profit but probability wise - will return overall steady performance by reducing DD.

                              3. Narrow month pip range are hard to deal with - but implementing (2) will mean less trades on narrow month channels. This is hard to predict as it's mainly due to fundamental reasons rather than technical ones. Wide pip movements in a month = profit for hanstrend. Generally with volatility bots 600 pips range in a month in a pair = good profits for that month. Maybe trailing stop loss may be required for these months.

                              4. Consider adding USD/CHF as a pair (monthly pip range around 500 pips for last 4 months before August) RobinVol performed well on this over the last 3 months.

                              Not to sound harsh, but you shouldn't be charging $150+ unless the EA is adapted every month based on monthly channels and key performance stats. If this is not done every month - it doesn't add value to the subscriber as we can purchase EA's such as RobinVol or Keltner Pro for $300 and make changes 1 and 2 to the EA's ourselves. Subscribers are expecting a smarter signal compared to a simple breakout EA.

                              Regards,
                              alazarus






                              Originally posted by Hans Bowles View Post
                              UPDATE:

                              Currently analyzing each single order which I made the last 3 months, which I have been doing for 3,5 weeks now, basically after 1,5 month+ of losses because I want to know whether this is supposed to happen and it will get back to the way it used to trade, OR it actually needs a small adjustment. Meanwhile I will continue trading HansTrend as before, and will post here again once I have come to a conclusion/result and whether I will change HansTrend slightly or not.

                              For now, there is no way that there is a certain rule for stop trading HansTrend, there also never has been. I tyraded my system and just let it ran, never looked back, and found out it was doing great, while there has been some small losses or even almost a year of no growth at all (just around 0%), but now I see that I have been making losses 3 months in a row, which is a record and unfortunately this means I need to at least analyze the cause of it and come with a solution.

                              All 4 pairs will stay in place, that's for sure, as all pairs seem to lose more than usual (in the past). Furtermore I can already say I will be looking specifically at the TP/SL setting as I already saw MANY orders didn't hit TP, while the orders stayed perfectly in gain... untill the trend reversed and went straight to SL. This is a clear sign that it could be that the TP level is too optimistic for the current market. I won't go into detail that much, as this is up to me and my own calculations, however some things many will agree with me, that for this time being the TP is a bit too optimistic.

                              To be continued. Hopefully during next week... same goes for answering any questions based on my reply here.

                              Ah and don't worry, I'm on this already before you guys start questioning I let you guys alone in the dark.

                              Cheers,
                              Hans

                              PS. During the last 3 months I have made NO changes to the strategy, if I did.. I would have told it.

                              Comment


                              • alazarus, despite I will not defend HansTrend that I paid 600usd or so for 6 months and got only losses (I stopped a bit after max DD hit), and will not blame Hans as it is not his fault, why are you interested in tweaking HansTrend when you have your Robinvol doing good, if I hear you well? Why tweak a "non working anymore EA" to make it better when you have one that already works well?


                                I ask again Hans to release other systems than Gold and HansTrend......

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