Smart Squared!

[Sherif]

I agree, it's not pure luck.

Yes, there's always a large element of luck needed when going into a news release, however we're not trading news here. We're trading in the direction of the trend, if news is released and burns us then so be it.

If we've got trades open there are only 3 options going into a major news announcement. Hold, close or hedge.

I sure as hell don't want to see any hedging, and closing a large basket "just in case" it goes against us also doesn't make a lot of sense.

I know you're analyzing as best you can to reduce risk Viay, but personally I see this as coincidence that we hit 2 heavy baskets in the space of a month. The market hasn't changed in my view, so I don't see it as a reason to panic. But it is a good opportunity to optimise the system (like the idea about cutting out trades on a Friday as an example).

Well done on the recovery. Yes, we got some luck, but it was also your ability to stay level and make rational decisions that helped get us through it.

Nick .. do u consider opening fx fusion mamm at icmarkets ??? Most of us already have our money there .. thanks

Sent from my SM-G900H using Tapatalk

[Nick]

Its not pure luck. Price is the greatest indicator. Why do you think USD has been going down for a long time now even though some think that there is an interest rate hikes. For interest rate hikes Yellen needs proper data points. These were not there for several months. Market expects that she can not come up with a rate hike, thats why the price is showing that already. its complicated.

I agree, it's not pure luck.

Yes, there's always a large element of luck needed when going into a news release, however we're not trading news here. We're trading in the direction of the trend, if news is released and burns us then so be it.

If we've got trades open there are only 3 options going into a major news announcement. Hold, close or hedge.

I sure as hell don't want to see any hedging, and closing a large basket "just in case" it goes against us also doesn't make a lot of sense.

I know you're analyzing as best you can to reduce risk Viay, but personally I see this as coincidence that we hit 2 heavy baskets in the space of a month. The market hasn't changed in my view, so I don't see it as a reason to panic. But it is a good opportunity to optimise the system (like the idea about cutting out trades on a Friday as an example).

Well done on the recovery. Yes, we got some luck, but it was also your ability to stay level and make rational decisions that helped get us through it.

[giuseppec]

Congrats Vijay of staying calm and closing this basket with almost no loss.

Loosing is part of the game and I'm fine with having sometimes drawdowns of 25% Percent in one month..... but not in one basket in one day.
You should be able to afford some consecutive losses. 2 Basket of this and it will take forever to recover. 3 consecutive loosing basket and we are out of the game.
I saw many traders with long profitable track record, but suddenly they broke the account and disappeared from simpletrader.

I joined in november and it took 3 Months to recover to get breakeven. Now after 5 Months following I have 1.23% total gain, but had 3 big drawdowns, that luckily didn't turn out worst.
The Risk is just not proportional to the possible gain.

If riskmanagement would be better, i would still be interested.

[Anton123]

Yes, here are the stats from last November: Here's what I got since I joined Smart Scalper (653 trades, 650 closed, 3 still open):
382 baskets of 1
59 baskets of 2
39 baskets of 3
9 baskets of 4

[Big River Man]

I in fact counted this some time ago. Pretty most baskets (I don't remember exactly, but surely over 60%) were 1 or 2 trades. I even believe having posted them in Scalper topic...

Ah was that you after the GA nightmare with the Scotland referendum or something?

[Anton123]

I in fact counted this some time ago. Pretty most baskets (I don't remember exactly, but surely over 60%) were 1 or 2 trades. I even believe having posted them in Scalper topic...

[Big River Man]

I'd love to know that stats on scalpers trades if it only opened a single or even 2 trades max. Surely Vijay must have the stats or history to know this?

[Vidster]

I agree. I honestly believe Vijay has the largest potential among all current FS traders. Let's cut out what needs to be cut out (fifo). Let's set a few parameters differently - easier said than done i know. And this signal provider will start rocking even in times of drawdowns. For sure yearly performance will probably be a bit lower. But that's the price to pay for avoiding large consecutive hits.

[oportunis]

I think that most are worried because you don't do anything once the 4th trade is open. We either wait till it goes to -25% or it goes to BE. You start closing some trades when you are close to -25% so you can get some extra "breathing" room, but in this specific case on scalper your DD stretched to -30%, so basically it went over max. DD. Yes the month is around -25%, but we already had around 5% of profit. I think most of us would like to see you close trade earlier or partially close them or maybe open a hedge. That FIFO rule obligation is for a few subscribers and those who really want to follow you can overpass that rule by going to a broker like Tallinex or some similar that accept US clients, so I don't see any point in being FIFO compliant if you can make a better system without it.

[ales]

Guys, calm down.

There will be always a reason why price would move in or agst our favour ... could have been Yellen, could be NFP ... doesnt really matter.

Im repeating myself here - risking 25% of capital into one trade is a suicide. Im fine going into major events with a position on but not willing to risk a year+ gains ...

[sanriopurin]

Its not pure luck. Price is the greatest indicator. Why do you think USD has been going down for a long time now even though some think that there is an interest rate hikes. For interest rate hikes Yellen needs proper data points. These were not there for several months. Market expects that she can not come up with a rate hike, thats why the price is showing that already. its complicated.

Agree to disagree.

I give you credit for identifying the DIRECTION of the trade.

But once those trades are entered, and it's not yielding the intended results, it's down to holding and praying. We escaped thanks to Yellen's comments. But what about this coming NFP? Would THAT be influenced because of lack of "proper data points"? What if Yellen's comments were already "priced in" even after the statement?

Sure yes I agree with you it's complicated.... but (as Smart Scalper has already proven), there's only so much you can "hold and pray" before luck runs out.

Anyway: I'm not here to pick an argument, and I truly wish you all the brains and inspiration to make this system better (I'm still a subscriber!).

I'm going to repeat my crazy idea if FRIDAY TRADES have been statistically disastrous (I doubt it), consider reversing them and aim for 8-10% gain for Friday basket.

[Vidster]

No, not really. A few other members were pretty hawkish lately. It's the game they play we know that but you could not know she was going to be dovish. Even if she was dovish in her statement she could give out some positive comments before starting to pound the dollar with negative remarks. That would make a lot of trouble to your sub accounts.

If you are saying you like to bet on this kind of news and you think you gonna win them in a long run then please let me know with clear answer. I will run away as fast as i can.

This is/was f***ing gambling!

If I am not mistaken the last time you lost was betting on NFP?

I will remain waiting on your update regarding strategy and risk control.

Cheers

[SmartTrader]

Its not pure luck. Price is the greatest indicator. Why do you think USD has been going down for a long time now even though some think that there is an interest rate hikes. For interest rate hikes Yellen needs proper data points. These were not there for several months. Market expects that she can not come up with a rate hike, thats why the price is showing that already. its complicated.

[sanriopurin]

It was PURE luck and nothing else.

This.

I'm sorry Vijay, I respect you and I've been with Nick/Simpletrader for years now. I hardly complain when things go rough, nor do I 'celebrate' when things are killing it.

But after observing the GBP/JPY and USD/CAD baskets, I have to say that I share the same view as Vidster.

Referring to the USD/CAD basket: if Yellen's comment went the other way, I'm very sure it would at least test the triple-top (H1) 1.3280+ level, maybe break through it. The basket might not reach the 25% limit yet.... we would then be subjected to 'holding and praying' through NFP Friday.

If NFP were to go against us, that's 25% bye bye for sure. If not, then we'd still be holding the basket now 'holding and praying'...

Either way: bottom line I do still believe Vijay can tweak some stuff and I'm still a subscriber. Although, I have massively reduced my exposure. At current strategy, 25% loss is not a matter of IF but WHEN.

We "struck lottery" twice now with the GBP/JPY and USD/CAD baskets. I'm not going to lose sleep over the third strike.

[Surrealistik]

There was lot of time between our first trade and the budget news. But I got your point.

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Aye, I acknowledge that; I had thought that the USDCAD positions prior to the budget news would be closed out, and no further positions accumulated during the announcement and turbulence thereafter.