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Betatrader - Swing Trading System

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  • Betatrader - Swing Trading System

    Hi everybody,

    I create this thread because some Simpletrader.net subscribers ask me to do it. As I have to deal with a lot of regular questions and emails now (it's not a problem, I'm sincerely always pleased to answer), I chose to create this thread for the current subscribers to my signal (with Dom's approval).
    Don't see this thread as an advertising, I don't want to convince you to take my signal. What I want is just to reply collectively to my subscribers if they have questions, it could be more handy for everybody.

    ---=== Trading system information ===---
    I'm a naked trader (I trade without indicators). I use the only reliable information on Forex : the Price Action.
    I trade only the Weekly, Daily and H4 charts focusing on very high-probability setups depending on price patterns (pinbar and engulfing bar) found around significant S/R levels.
    It's a swing manual trading discretionary system. I don't take a lot of trades (average of 4 trades per month) but it's always high-probability setups in order to earn money consistently. I trade this system successfully since 3-4 years now.
    Be aware that my system is a swing trading system, so I can take only few trades depending on the Market state. If there are a lot of consolidation/ranging periods, it's not a problem for me to not take any trade during 1 or 2 weeks for example.
    I prefer to trade less and better than overtrade to lose money. Not trading in bad Market conditions is making money too. But be sure that every trade I take is a high-probability setup with high winratio (around 80%).
    Of course, stoplosses are systematically used for every trade.
    This system relies only on technical information, I don't care about the news event (except for major news like NFP or currency rates modification). The fundamentals are in the charts. It's the key precept of the technical analysis theory. All is in the charts.
    My system doesn't change over the time because it uses deep price action properties which never change despite of the market conditions.

    All technical details of my trading system are available on my website : http://www.beta-trader.com/heavy-tra...m-description/

    ---=== Money management ===---
    I never risk more than 2% per trade. The lot size is always calculated relating to the stoploss position to never risk more than 2% per trade : the money management and the risk involved are constant.
    In order to use proper and efficient money management on the Forex, I use constant risk exposure for every trade. As nobody is able to know in advance if a trade will be a loser or a winner, it's normal to treat every trades with the same risk in order to earn money consistently over the long run.
    I can have a maximum of 4-5 trades opened at the same time but it's very rare.
    It is recommended to have a minimum account of $3000. Since I can take weekly trades sometimes (with potential wide stops of 400-500 pips), to be able to set the risk to maximum 2%, your account has to be minimum of about $3000 with a broker trading the micro-lots (0.01 lots). The risk of using an account a lower account is that you could miss some of my trades (mainly the weekly) or take trades with a risk higher than 2% depending on the copier configuration.

    ---=== Drawdowns ===---
    My theoretical maximum drawdown can be around 10%. But I never did more than 6-8% in practice (3-4 consecutive loser trades as you can see on my Historical Myfxbook account).
    On my new Forex account my max drawdown is 2% but keep in mind that it can go to 4-6%. The probability of having drawdowns higher than 6% is low because my winratio is currently high (more than 80%).

    ---=== Assets ===---
    I trade these pairs : EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, AUDUSD, AUDJPY, AUDNZD, AUDCAD, AUDCHF, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF, NZDUSD, NZDJPY, NZDCAD, NZDCHF, CADJPY, CADCHF, CHFJPY
    I can trade these too but it's really rare :
    SILVER, GOLD, USDSGD, SGDJPY, AUDSGD, EURSGD

    ---=== Risk multiplier ===---
    I have regular questions about the risk multiplier in my mailbox :-)
    My advice is that it's better to use only 1x risk in my point of view. However, it depends on your drawdown endurance. I wrote an article about it here : http://www.beta-trader.com/how-much-...an-you-endure/.
    If you are able to endure a max theoretical drawdown of around 20% (historically never below 12-16% as I never gone below 6-8%), you could use a 2x multiplier but you must assume this big risk exposure.
    I strictly discourage using my signal with a risk multiplier of 3x. For me, a trading system with more than 25-30% of drawdowns is a loser one.

    ---=== Extra info ===---
    My historical account (USD) : http://www.myfxbook.com/members/beta...orical/1182264
    My new account (EUR) : http://www.myfxbook.com/members/beta...ly--h4/1182199
    My Twitter : https://twitter.com/Beta_Trader (@beta_trader)

    To finish I have to say that I don't take in account the remarks about my trading style, the possible modifications on my trading system or the worries of one particular trade (ex: "take more trades to make more money", "you could try to use tighter stops", "why did you take that trade, you should...").
    My trading system is no more in progress since few years, it's fully completed. I don't need trading advices. I spent so much time in front of my charts, live trading and backtesting, I don't care at all what people can think about me and my trading style. It's called the confidence.
    Concerning the eventual worries about one particular trade, when you see a single trade, I see one trade belonging to a larger trades set. When I take a trade, I don't care if it's a loser or a winner. What is important is knowing if the current trade fits my system criteria. After, the probabilities do the rest...

    I'm sorry if you think I'm rude, but I prefer to be honest from the start.

    Don't hesitate if you have any question,


    Betatrader
    Last edited by Betatrader; 08-28-2015, 06:53 PM.

  • #2
    Thanks very much for this information - it's very helpful to those of us considering following your signal and I wish more traders would do it. Your system looks very interesting and I think I'll be adding it to my portfolio very soon

    Comment


    • #3
      i like all of the information, just the kind of trader i want.

      Comment


      • #4
        Guys this is a wonderful signal and trader looks very serious too, not a beginner...

        Comment


        • #5
          Yes this signal is very good and low risk system.

          @Nick we need signals like this in VIP.

          Comment


          • #6
            As your trades are open for a number of days or weeks, how does the swap fees affect profits?

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by ScottFX View Post
              As your trades are open for a number of days or weeks, how does the swap fees affect profits?
              To answer precisely to your question, I looked at my swap fees. On my Oanda new account (~20k€), it can go from 0.10€ to 2€ per day for swap fees. If we take an average of 1€ of swap fees per day for opened positions, it represents 0.005% per day. As my trade average length is around 10 days, we can calculate around 0.05% (0.005x10) of swap fees per trade. When a trade is a winner, minimum 2% are done, so we could say the worst case is 1.95% (2-0.05). In fact, it's even less because the swap can be positive. It's an empirical and not accurate calculation.
              To sum up : the swap fees don't affect my profits. It's negligible.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by smejko View Post
                Yes this signal is very good and low risk system.

                @Nick we need signals like this in VIP.
                I second that...

                Sent from my GT-I9100G using Tapatalk 2

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by smejko View Post
                  Yes this signal is very good and low risk system.

                  @Nick we need signals like this in VIP.
                  Won't work not enough trades therefore not enough commissions.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
                    Won't work not enough trades therefore not enough commissions.
                    Depending on the agreement,...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Hi beta, your trading looks great and is ticking alot of boxes for me as a potential sub to your signal. Just wanted to know a bit more about yourself as a trader - do you do this as a full time job/sole source of income? Are you looking to provide signals long term and build a strong following with your subscribers? Cheers, beaumz

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I'm in. Let's burn this candle.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by beaumz View Post
                          Hi beta, your trading looks great and is ticking alot of boxes for me as a potential sub to your signal. Just wanted to know a bit more about yourself as a trader - do you do this as a full time job/sole source of income? Are you looking to provide signals long term and build a strong following with your subscribers? Cheers, beaumz
                          Yes, I'm a full time-trader but not like everyone could think.
                          I trade for a living but it takes only around 30 minutes per day to trade efficiently relating to my trading style and my experience (to look at Weekly, Daily and H4 charts).
                          It could be surprising but in fact, traders with this kind of trading style don’t need to spend a lot of time in front of the screen to earn money consistently.
                          Profitable trading is a boring and lonely task. You do always the same (once you built completely your trading system). Again and again. The trading is my main income but in order to keep me busy, I have severals hobbies (and 1 job, working as a Freelance only around 60 days per year in order to have social link).
                          I think I can provide signals long term because I don't have any reason to stop this signal for now. If I can help other people and make extra money at the same time, it could be fun. I'm happy to help people and it keeps me busy (that's why I created my website few months ago).
                          In general, don't hesitate to ask me questions about trading, I'm always pleased to answer.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Hello Betatrader,

                            I would be really interested to know the following:

                            " How to backtest a strategy " ???
                            - What factors do you take in to account ?

                            Because what I found is that most robot do not work on the long-term and they all are the results of deep backtesting by their creators... So what did you do better than all of them (us) ???

                            Thank you

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by yoyomoma View Post
                              Hello Betatrader,

                              I would be really interested to know the following:

                              " How to backtest a strategy " ???
                              - What factors do you take in to account ?

                              Because what I found is that most robot do not work on the long-term and they all are the results of deep backtesting by their creators... So what did you do better than all of them (us) ???

                              Thank you
                              When I say backtesting, I'm not talking about automatic trading with robots. A lot of people, think about EA and automated system with the "backtesting" concept.
                              I was talking about backtesting your trading system manually (I trade 100% manually). With a tool like Forextester for example (http://www.forextester.com/). You can use any pairs during any periods. You start the soft and you hit the spacebar to display the next candle. And you trade manually. You put SELL/BUY orders with SL and TP. Like that you can know if your trading system is profitable over the long run. It concentrates your experience. It's like you traded since 20 years. It's a really fastidious and long process. But be sure that it's really efficient. To become profitable : stay at your home and backtest during 6 months, every day. At the end, you'll see the Markets differently. It's not magical, it's just experience concentration.
                              Of course, I did it on the majority of pairs over decades (and all the best traders I know did it too). And I know that my system is profitable (I'm not the only trader using this system...) and I'm confident.

                              In fact, how can you be sure that your trading system is profitable if you don't test it at least on the last 10 years ? Some cycle on the financial markets can be very long. And some strategies can lose in some periods. So you have to test your system over the time. The manual backtesting is one tool to do it.

                              The factors I take in account in my trading style are described on my website, in the link available on the first post.

                              Comment

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