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  • Originally posted by arkoon View Post
    Sorry but is is very useless people telling they intervened, hedged, closed half, changed SL, opened another trade... if they want to do it why not. But most of us here or trust the trader, or don't, no point to intervene and tell it on the forum.
    I prefer big solid boys that trust, or don't the trader, apply a good MM then see at least on a few months...

    What I can tell in most of the case these manual intervenes will be loosers overall at the end. Excepted if you are in the 5% retail that have some skills (good trader+good money manager)

    see, now i got some useful info from you, the idea of starting at lower risk for few months as testing

    that is why i don't mind hearing what others do/think to increase my knowledge and experience, i might not need such ideas now but may in the future be a lifesaver

    thanks for sharing your opinion

    Comment


    • Hi Beta..Could you please give us some sort of update on your views of the past 3 trades and what possibly caused these high probability trades to go against us?

      Thanks

      Comment


      • Peoples involved at retail level, be it retail traders or retail investors always lose not because of trading but because of non patience. You know how big investor deal with their investment, they put in extensive research on manager before they commit any money on them. Once their due diligence is complete they trust the trader / manager with fraction of their total investment. They ask trader / manager to turn that fraction of investment into certain % before they can commit more funds to him. This keeps investors risk moderate their expectancy moderate & gives trader / manager encouragement / motivation that his good performance will be rewarded in future with more funds from investors. And mind you investors won't check what is happening to their investment on daily basis, they most probably have prearrangement / mutually agreed periods with trader / manager for investments performance evaluation. This gives edge to investors & trader / manager both in long term. So if any of you are trying to be good investor, please keep in mind that you have to do your due diligence before committing any sort of funds to any signal. And once such fund is committed do the performance evaluation after certain period like Quarterly, Half Yearly or Yearly etc. Purpose of due diligence is that you cannot trust trader / manager completely but you can trust your due diligence completely.
        Now coming to performance of Betatrader, I dont think losing 3 trades in a row is big deal. But people here are getting desperate for 2 reasons - 1] they keep checking their accounts maybe daily or maybe hourly basis to check whether there is any trade from Beta, & when finally one shows up & then lose they are frustrated. - Solution is have a predefined period when to check his performance, I highly recommend to evaluate his performance Quarterly. 2] they have not done their due diligence on whether Beta will be successful or not, if they have done that they dont need to trust Beta but they can trust their due diligence. - Solution is do you due diligence & check what will be his performance on quarterly basis, what will be his highest losing streak, his minimum winning streak, his maximum draw-down or minimum gains.
        Dont be so critical of any trader within this short losing streak & dont discourage them, that will only hamper his performance more than help him. Because losing 3 in a row is not a big deal at all. I have seen "n" number of extremely good traders (the ones who never ever show up in retail forums, the ones who do trade extraordinarily well & trade only individual millionaire / billionaire investors money) lose 10-15 trades in a row.

        Comment


        • agree, copy signal 4-6 months and then check account equity , 3 losing trades in row with risk 1x is not problem only 3% loss besause 1 trade befor was 3% win.

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          • Originally posted by alex4xes View Post
            Peoples involved at retail level, be it retail traders or retail investors always lose not because of trading but because of non patience. You know how big investor deal with their investment, they put in extensive research on manager before they commit any money on them. Once their due diligence is complete they trust the trader / manager with fraction of their total investment. They ask trader / manager to turn that fraction of investment into certain % before they can commit more funds to him. This keeps investors risk moderate their expectancy moderate & gives trader / manager encouragement / motivation that his good performance will be rewarded in future with more funds from investors. And mind you investors won't check what is happening to their investment on daily basis, they most probably have prearrangement / mutually agreed periods with trader / manager for investments performance evaluation. This gives edge to investors & trader / manager both in long term. So if any of you are trying to be good investor, please keep in mind that you have to do your due diligence before committing any sort of funds to any signal. And once such fund is committed do the performance evaluation after certain period like Quarterly, Half Yearly or Yearly etc. Purpose of due diligence is that you cannot trust trader / manager completely but you can trust your due diligence completely.
            Now coming to performance of Betatrader, I dont think losing 3 trades in a row is big deal. But people here are getting desperate for 2 reasons - 1] they keep checking their accounts maybe daily or maybe hourly basis to check whether there is any trade from Beta, & when finally one shows up & then lose they are frustrated. - Solution is have a predefined period when to check his performance, I highly recommend to evaluate his performance Quarterly. 2] they have not done their due diligence on whether Beta will be successful or not, if they have done that they dont need to trust Beta but they can trust their due diligence. - Solution is do you due diligence & check what will be his performance on quarterly basis, what will be his highest losing streak, his minimum winning streak, his maximum draw-down or minimum gains.
            Dont be so critical of any trader within this short losing streak & dont discourage them, that will only hamper his performance more than help him. Because losing 3 in a row is not a big deal at all. I have seen "n" number of extremely good traders (the ones who never ever show up in retail forums, the ones who do trade extraordinarily well & trade only individual millionaire / billionaire investors money) lose 10-15 trades in a row.
            That all sounds great, but how does one do "extensive research" on these anonymous traders,,, The only information we have is a few months of trading history. There is a risk here. It should be understood that you are, to some degree, taking a leap of blind faith.

            Comment


            • Hi everybody,

              Looks like I have a lot of comments here :-)
              The reactions are really diversified and interesting, like this community. I have a lot of questions and remarks, so let's begin.

              Originally posted by fxtsunami View Post
              Interesting,speaking about increasing the price,looks like we will see third loss in row.Maybe you offer your signal for free
              Interesting, speaking about Forex, looks like you are not able to understand what is Forex about. Maybe you will leave my signal.

              Originally posted by fxtsunami View Post
              Very bad entry and i think shit trader.Last 3 trades all bad entry and after sl turned to our direction.Sorry but we had in past a lot traders here like this guy is
              Such a cute troll I have here I'm so happy to see such a tiny sweet troll getting outside the forest. Looking at your post history shows that you are used to criticize in a constructive way.
              Anyway, I will reply to you because it's part of the game being here. I have one question for you : if you know that my entries were very bad, why did you copy my signal on these positions ? Maybe you have a secret magical skill knowing that the trades in advance will be losers. Maybe you could trade your money yourself.
              I can understand that you had in past a lot of losing traders here and apparently you lost a lot of money. But ask yourself : why are you losing money as a follower ?
              Keep subscribing and cancelling to different signal helps you a lot to lose money I think.
              But the most important is that you had all the information on my first post before subscribing. I told you that I can have drawdowns (what a surprise ! So strange to see a trading system having drawdowns ^^) and I wrote this : "I don't care at all what people can think about me and my trading style".
              So leave my signal, do your homework and go losing your money in another place, thanks.

              Now, I can reply to the interesting posts.
              Originally posted by kmf View Post
              Hi Beta..Could you please give us some sort of update on your views of the past 3 trades and what possibly caused these high probability trades to go against us?

              Thanks
              I can understand that being in drawdowns is really confusing as a follower, especially when you joined the signal last month because you had only 3 losing positions.
              But I can't do nothing about that. The distribution of the losing trades during the year is random and totally unpredictable. It can't be modified. Like the distribution of the winning trades.
              Concerning the losing streak of 3 trades. As described in my first post, like every trading system I have drawdowns (drawdowns is part of a trading system). My max historical drawdown during last year is about 6-7%. It's not the first time and it's not the last time.
              In this first post, I say : my "theorical" max drawdown can be around 10%. Why I say that ?
              Because of the probabilities. The probability to have drawdowns more than 10% (5 losing trades in a row) is less than 1%.
              The probability of seeing a losing streak of 3 losing trades (in about 50 trades) with a system having a 80% winratio is about 30%. It's pretty likely and it's not surprising at all.
              Again : nothing weird here. For information, the probability becomes close to 50% in 100 trades row (in almost 2 years with my system).
              One way to calculate or check the probabilities of seeing a losing streak in a trading system can be found here : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post5325463.
              I attached a screenshot with the 3 losing streak calculation (to the right on 50 consecutive trades, to the left on 100 consecutive trades). And I'm afraid for all the followers being frustrated that the probability of seeing a 4 trade in a row is not 0 :-) I could lose the next trade too.
              But the overall picture is that I make money over the long run. Come again in 6 months or 1 year and you will be able to assess properly my system performance.

              Originally posted by jprize View Post
              We have seen so many traders here who come in with a great history (if you can call a few months history), only to blow up and disappear a few months later. I really hope Beta doesn't wind up being another one. Let's hope for the best.
              I understand that the history of the previous "traders" can frighten a lot of people here. But I can say with some certainty that the previous traders didn't use standard Money management (ex: Dayfox, Fx Amplified, ...). They were able to risk 10-20% on one single position without stoploss...
              If you properly understood my Money management, you can see that it's really hard to blow up an account. To remind, I use a % risk exposure per trade.
              You could think that I can blow up your account if I have an impossible losing streak of 50 trades, risking 2% per trade, it will give you 50 * 2 = 100%. Account blew up. But it doesn't work like that.
              It's percentage, it's not linear. Let's say I have $10000 account, I will lose my next 50 trades in a row (which is impossible for me), it doesn't make 0% but $3641,70 (64% loss of your account). I let you make the calculation.
              If I want to blow up your account, I will need several years and you will have the time to cut my signal...

              Originally posted by Okda View Post
              that is why i don't copy SL , i know it is a huge risk but i have been stopped several times while the signal account didn't
              You know what I will say :-)
              It's highly dangerous to not copy stoplosses. If the Market does some erratic moves, you can lose a lot of money.

              Originally posted by Lesseymourpips View Post
              Best way is too cover with a hedge if signal is still in play release hedge. You might take small loss though. What I do also when trading risk to reward of 1-1 at half way to getting stopped out I take 40 percent off as long as he hits target over 47 percent you will be profitable, so if he can maintain over 50 percent your account should be good.
              Modifying my positions, hedging, changing my money management is something that could result in loss. I hope you know what you are doing because you could lose more money like this.
              Globally, if you let my trades run instead of accepting the loss, I sincerely hope you will make money but it's dangerous and statistically, you are more likely to lose money.
              Now if your SL is set and not triggered, it's highly abnormal and dangerous.

              Originally posted by Stingr View Post
              Hi Betatrader,
              Taking into account the recent losing streak, increasing the price of the signal just next week would become an additional factor for some people not to renew their subscription when it expires. As your signal is quite new on this board I guess you have a lot of investors who signed up in September just before this DD started. Hitting three losing trades in a row is OK for other systems but something that never happened before on your account, so these investors may decide to just wait and see what happens next. Some guys may even start discouraging others from using your signal, writing bad words in this thread etc. and it definitely won't help.
              If you intend to increase the subscription fee, a better moment to do this would be when the system gets out of the drawdown and reaches a new high watermark. Investors would become much more confident in your method.
              Just my two cents if you don't mind, thank you and good luck in your trading.
              Thanks for your comment. What you say makes sense but to be honest I don't care if few investors don't subscribe to my signal because I increase the price. Simpletrader is not the only place where I sell my signal in the retail world (and I sell it in institutional world too). So I don't need to run after investors and taking care of my "marketing" image.
              But the main thing is that I planned to increase my price before this losing streak. So, I think I will do it as planned. And again, it's just for new followers, not the current ones.

              For information, I'm absolutely not affected by these comments and it's really interesting to see the different behaviors. We can see a lot of risk/financial maturity with some people on one hand (ex: alex4xes) and frightened people on the other hand (which is easily understandable seeing the previous "traders" behaviors).
              Whatever it happens, be sure I will never change anything to my system, I will never break my rules. If you don't like my boring system, don't hesitate to not subscribe or to unsubscribe :-)

              However, after saying all those things, I have to be clear : I'm not here to be convincing, just to answer questions. I understand that you can't handle these drawdowns, if so, you have to unsubscribe to my signal.
              The Forex is not for everybody.

              I hope I replied to the majority of queries. If it's not the case, don't hesitate to post (it's more interesting for everybody if your are constructive) or to email me, even for insults ;-)

              Have a great week-end

              Beta
              Attached Files
              Last edited by Betatrader; 10-10-2015, 11:02 AM.

              Comment


              • Hey Beta... I like your attitude, and I'm hopeful that time proves it to be warranted. I think it's worth the cost, to copy at reduced risk for a year or two and find out. :-)

                Comment


                • Originally posted by alex4xes View Post
                  Dont be so critical of any trader within this short losing streak & dont discourage them, that will only hamper his performance more than help him.
                  Beta is such a solid trader/money manager this can't affect him. He trades almost as a robot and I like this.
                  If I believed it can be affected, thus change his style or MM, I would unsubscribe right now.
                  First quality of a trader is his strong nerves/cool head.
                  I remind you 100% of successful trader have good MM. They know what is managing risk.
                  Any pressure or anything that will affect them will be bad. But when you traded the market for years and years, I think you accept easy that you cannot win all the time.

                  A reminder, much better a bad trader with good MM than a good trader with bad MM.... One will loose something small, recoverable, the other will blow or a take major hit a day or another.

                  But yes, I reckon it is not easy to start with 3 losses and pay the subscription. But it's the deal, it is flat and not % based.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by arkoon View Post
                    Beta is such a solid trader/money manager this can't affect him. He trades almost as a robot and I like this.
                    If I believed it can be affected, thus change his style or MM, I would unsubscribe right now.
                    First quality of a trader is his strong nerves/cool head.
                    I remind you 100% of successful trader have good MM. They know what is managing risk.
                    Any pressure or anything that will affect them will be bad. But when you traded the market for years and years, I think you accept easy that you cannot win all the time.

                    A reminder, much better a bad trader with good MM than a good trader with bad MM.... One will loose something small, recoverable, the other will blow or a take major hit a day or another.

                    But yes, I reckon it is not easy to start with 3 losses and pay the subscription. But it's the deal, it is flat and not % based.
                    I m 100% sure also that this wont affect his trading skills but I m concern that this might affect his willingness to participate in the retail space because of the ignorance & negativity of few friends. I mean, he is successful, he manages his own account, he manages institutional clients, then do he need any retail client so badly that he have to tolerate this kind of negativity & that too within 3 trading loss (approx 6%). He himself say that he is not here for attracting new subscribers, he is here for answering his old subscribers.... if this attitude continues & if he decides that he will make a private group to address his old subscribers query & leave this place than that would be loss for genuine investors. Trust me I have no doubt on Beta's trading skill since I understand how good system works & how good trader / manager behaves.

                    Comment


                    • Don't worry , I doubt he is so touchy besides excuse me but time will tell if we will be profitable using this system but for now I'm down 12% on 2x and have no choice but to stay at this risk with hopes of recovery so I'm not here to wipe anybodies tears . Let's just get over it and see the next few trades . Good trading to all.

                      Comment


                      • hello beta,

                        i really like your signal and your attitude but there is one thing i have to ask. maybe it was clarified in this thread before.then sorry for the disturbance! on the 10th of february 2015 you opened a position (GBP/JPY) which you closed with over -6%. how could this occur? dont get me wrong i love the idea of high probability setups and your trading itself but i am curious what was up there because you claim to never hurt the 2% rule?

                        kind regards

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                        • I think you have misread the stats tse13, it was a 638 pips loss but due to the low lot size only a 1.61% loss.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Jamicon View Post
                            I think you have misread the stats tse13, it was a 638 pips loss but due to the low lot size only a 1.61% loss.
                            hmm this may be.. it is correct that i can not see any lot size there. only the fact that myfxbook shows that loss :/ only that you can see that i do not want to discredit beta.. here is what i see on my screen.

                            Screenshot
                            statsBeta.jpg

                            Comment


                            • @tse13, you are analyzing wrong account, Betatrader already mentioned that he is copy-ing wrong lot size from EUR to USD account so this is the reason.

                              Comment


                              • ok got it! thank you all for the clarification!

                                kind regards

                                Comment

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