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XedFX NightScalper

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  • barrault
    replied
    What is your max. DD?

    30%. I will close all positions, if I reach this equity DD.

    Can you stop playing the dead man, and come on line, and explain to your customer what's happen .
    Losing money is part of the game, it is happen to all forex trader.
    Can you give us an update on your system, i stop it for now.
    Waiting for some news from you side.
    To make my dessicion.
    Regards.
    Olivier

    Leave a comment:


  • Flow
    replied
    Paul "XedFX"

    Look, it is a bit annoying when a trader breaks DD rules and appears to use a different strategy to the history....

    BUT it's not that big of a deal.

    You don't need to set your myfxbook to private, or not show up here.

    Everyone gets knocked down, that's forgivable, it's how you get up that matters.


    As followers we should expect and allow for some DD slippage. And we can step in to do the DD discipline ourselves, if it comes to that. Which some of us have done.

    I'm fine to take my 30% hit, no problem at all, so what's next?....

    As a trader all you need to communicate is something simple like - "opps, plan b of less risk didn't work out, held on to try to help us all but unlucky as that was an unusual move, so back to plan A"



    So the signal is still trading, and it looks like it has reduced lot sizes to match reduced balance of 4,700 to 2,000, so followers don't have to change lot multipliers to keep the same risk if they keep following, right??


    I prefer signals that have dealt with serious knockdowns, to signals that are filtered to never have a scratch.

    take care dude, this ain't too bad, a signal with a full year's history of ups and and downs, and learning from mistakes is still worth something, if you have the mindset to handle it

    Leave a comment:


  • HedgeBitcoin
    replied
    Originally posted by Pianetti View Post
    As I can see the signal has much better results.
    Here is the $99 EA -
    http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ex4systems/mfm5/1676720

    sometimes the EA is better because it follows the trading plan every day. I 'm sorry to hear the trader didn't follow the normal system.

    https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...htScalper.html

    The trading history shows a 4 level averaging/grid on GBPJPY and GBPAUD which took those profits away.

    Leave a comment:


  • Flow
    replied
    trader closed trades - but only after drawdown run out to 60%,

    Is still trading, opening new trades - but has set the myfxbook Master Account to private


    the 8 trades Gunther mentioned did the 60% damage, and were out of step with the length of the preceding 1,500 trades, so not scalps, i also saw it as more like a hopeful grid.



    trader, you had a year with a history of taking DD of 20-38%, facing it and recovering.

    this time you let DD go to 60% and are hiding myfxbook - what's up?



    i also closed closed most trades earlier when they exceeded all 1 years historical limits, and got past 30% dd. also got a hit of 3%, nothing unusual! was expecting a 30-40% drop on this at any time, and a 10-20% pm recovery,

    unfortunately this puts the future DD risk ,and recovery ability, into doubt.



    Many signals, make a ton, have an controlled inevitable hit, and keep their trading style to recover nicely, so I can keep subbing


    The signal history from a year of trading does look like it was superseded by the new settings from the backtest results, that didn't go too well on the forward test

    Xedfx-nightscalper has not been able to keep the dd discipline, and made uncharacteristic trades, not fitting with the advertised history, makes it hard to keep or start subbing


    paul...




    Leave a comment:


  • Gunther
    replied
    lucky i closed the trades was running at .5 risk so lost about 4% better then a 20% ( had a max DD protection of 20%) Something not right with the trades in the last few days. I hope everyone else got out fine.

    Leave a comment:


  • Gunther
    replied
    Im unsure whats happened but not comfortable with these trades, seem as though the trader is not supervising the trades, because these are completely out of pattern. I closed all the treads yesterday and will disable the signal now until i hear from the trader.

    Leave a comment:


  • barrault
    replied
    Strange for an asian scalper, opening a position a 13:26, I thing paul is on manual mode, to try a recovery, cross finger

    Leave a comment:


  • Gunther
    replied
    Paul,

    Im a little confused regarding the trading in the last 24hours as you mentioned the signal is NOT a grid and will close trades in minutes or hours as per your description on your simpler traded page:

    "This signal is a well back and forward tested scalper, that trades only during the asian session. It trades up to 20 different pairs and normally only 1 position per pair. In some rare cases, it could open a second trade too. You can start with a minimum of $100 per 0.01 lot.

    NO GRID, NO HEDGE and NO MARTINGALE

    All trades will be closed after some minutes / hours."

    As you can see the signal has 2 or more trades open in 3 pairs and I'm not sure how this has happened could you please advise on this, because there was GBP data and Ive never seen you keep positions open this long and during the European data releases.

    2016/08/08 23:44:36 77.767000 0.16 Buy CADJPY -8.17 -5.4 3984706
    2016/08/08 18:19:23 77.950000 0.16 Buy CADJPY -34.09 -23.7 3980858
    2016/08/09 08:13:45 1.697890 0.40 Buy GBPAUD -20.02 -6.4 3985168
    2016/08/08 23:44:16 1.701910 0.40 Buy GBPAUD -131.03 -46.6 3984705
    2016/08/08 21:10:07 1.704040 0.40 Buy GBPAUD -189.85 -67.9 3984344
    2016/08/09 05:28:56 132.991000 0.13 Buy GBPJPY -15.21 -12.6 3985002
    2016/08/08 23:43:58 133.403000 0.13 Buy GBPJPY -62.44 -53.8 3984704
    2016/08/08 18:02:04 133.682000 0.13 Buy GBPJPY -94.48 -81.7 3980851

    Could you please advise on this matter as I'm unsure if this was an error by the system or not. Im more concerned given your post of a few weeks ago stating the following;

    "With this new package, I will delete the NZD-pairs, but I will add two new pairs (AUDCAD and AUDJPY - both will open only sell positions).
    My aim was to reduce the max. open time for a trade and to find the best settings with max. 1 open position per pair at the same time. Some pairs will close the position after max. 2-3 hours (other pairs will hold positions up to 10 hours) before they will be closed (if they don't reached the TP before)."


    Your feed back would be helpful.

    Regards,
    Last edited by Gunther; 08-09-2016, 08:45 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Flow
    replied
    Hi Paul,

    Good job on keeping the DD in Feb to around your stated target of 30%. (It got to 38%, but I add on an buffer for worst case, so still within my reasonable expectations.)


    ​1) Nice gains since Feb 16. Were these a result of adjustments you made after Feb? Or were they the same settings since Aug 15?

    Notice you've kept dd to 20% since then. and gains 15-20% pm.

    2) So are you now making second set off adjustments?
    When do the adjustments you mention now come into effect?

    So the signal history from a year of trading is superseded by the new settings from the backtest results?
    Fine with me if it is, good to see providers pay attention and work to make minor tweeks according to changing market conditions, as long as it's still in line the with major signal principle.


    3) How does these new backtested changes effect your "Signal Information" statement...?
    "Our expected monthly gain should be around 15-30%. The DD should be under 30%." (Was this based on the pre Feb version of the signal?)

    4) So Is the DD guidance still around the range of 30%-ish?
    Since you "reduced the max. drawdown significant" - can you reduce the DD guidance, so we can increase our risk?

    At what point would you step in and cut losses in worst case DD based on these new settings?

    Thanks

    Leave a comment:


  • XedFX
    replied
    Here are my lastest news from SimpleTrader:


    Hello friends,

    I got some good news!
    After some weeks of backtests (I made thousands of backtests), I finished my work and I will introduce a new package with improved settings for my NightScalper-signal.

    I used the most realistic testing environment for this new package:
    99% full tick data based backtests with 5$ commission and variable spreads (from dukascopy) for the past 5,5 years (starting from 1.1.2011)

    All my recent backtests are already based on tick datas, but with fixed spreads. So we will see much more realistic results in this way.

    My current settings were pretty good until the start of 2016. The new settings are optimized for the current market situation. Therefore you will see a big difference in the backtest results for the year 2016.

    At the end, I will post two backtest-portfolio statements for you, where you can compare my current and my new settings / backtests.

    With this new package, I will delete the NZD-pairs, but I will add two new pairs (AUDCAD and AUDJPY - both will open only sell positions).
    My aim was to reduce the max. open time for a trade and to find the best settings with max. 1 open position per pair at the same time. Some pairs will close the position after max. 2-3 hours (other pairs will hold positions up to 10 hours) before they will be closed (if they don't reached the TP before).

    The backtest-results are based on a fixed lot size for every pair to make it more compareable (that mean, that you will have the same profit in $, no matter if you got a account with 10k or 100k). Here are the backtest results:

    1.) Current settings: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...tfolio_old.pdf
    2.) New settings: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/..._optimized.pdf

    As you can see, I managed to improve the overall profit by 50%, while I reduced the max. drawdown significant.

    I'm really happy about this improvements and looking forward to see a more stable + more profitable signal in the future.

    There are only a few weeks left, until I reach a 1-year history.

    I want to invite everyone to join my signal and be a part of this success story.



    Greetings
    Paul "XedFX"

    Leave a comment:


  • Pianetti
    replied
    it seems the party is over

    Leave a comment:


  • XedFX
    replied
    Hey friends,

    I took the time yesterday and wonder about, how I can improve my signal. Here are my thoughts and my next steps starting from today:

    1.) I will not use the recover function anymore. The strategy will be profitable even without this second recover position for the same pair. This will reduce the risk, if something like the last 2 days will happen again.
    2.) I will open max. 2 different JPY position at the same time. So you will not see a EURJPY, GBPJPY and CADJPY position on the same time anymore.
    3.) I will reduce the risk for the JPY positions a bit
    4.) I will start with my improved settings from today. This will lead to significant less JPY-positions, but with better entry points. And you will expect much more EURCAD positions + some CHF pairs are improved. I will post some backtests later from my lastest results.
    5.) I will reduce the risk of all pairs for 1-3 days (depending on the results).

    I hope you see, that I'm going to reduce the risk and improve the overall results.
    I'm still confident in this strategy and hope we will get back the loose in a few days/weeks.

    For all who are waiting for a answer: I will answer all questions today step by step.


    Greetings
    Paul

    Leave a comment:


  • Tripzor
    replied
    It cant be always wins, High wins, High losses. Lets hope he will recover nicely

    Well Im not following him but still. I hope for you guys

    Leave a comment:


  • ales
    replied
    ouch. 25% down ... whats going on?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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  • Fxtsunami
    replied
    https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/161040#!tab=history

    Such wins are possible.Ea today closed all in loss,you are still hoping to recover.This is your strategie,wait and hope


    When i read about mam,about settings about strategie..... i had to write this post.Here are some real signal providers fighting with market,but dreaming about mam......
    Last edited by Fxtsunami; 02-03-2016, 05:46 AM.

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