US Signal - Complete Transparency - I'm here to change everything!

[Ryan]

Hi everyone! Thought I would post here as well....

All positions closed out in profit before the FOMC news today. Exactly where I wanted to be.

We took profit yesterday on the UJ and UCAD

UJ, 11 pips = 0.33% profit
UCAD, 11 pips = 0.22% profit.

We didn't take a lot of pips but our profit was decent because of the lower risk on my first trade in each basket.

[Ryan]

One of my latest baskets. Check out my signal here. https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...nt-Signal.html
UJ_trade.png

[Nick]

Yes, this will be the big test to everyone watching. My loss was only 5.67% on the month. This is not a massive loss. It's also in relationship to my average monthly profit. I don't lose often so I should be able to get things back to where they were in 6 weeks or so. I understand what needs to be done and how it needs to be done. I will not change how I trade to make losses back. I stay the course and do what I know to be best.

Losses are a part of this world. I've excepted it and am prepared to move on. My last loss was a lot worse. I lost 14% of the account back in Feb of this year. I had a much larger loss cut off then. You can see how my loss played out and how 6 weeks later I was able to make just about all of that loss back. Slow and steady.

Good to hear you've got a plan and are sticking to your guns.

"Stay the course" is one of my favorite sayings, I've used it many times on this journey to date

[Ryan]

The point HedgeBitcoin makes is very valid. Your wins are miniscule compared to your large loss. Anyone who just started following you is in a big loss to start off with. Interested here because of NA regulations and having an acct with Oanda. But from here, how you recover with your stats will be interesting...

Yes, this will be the big test to everyone watching. My loss was only 5.67% on the month. This is not a massive loss. It's also in relationship to my average monthly profit. I don't lose often so I should be able to get things back to where they were in 6 weeks or so. I understand what needs to be done and how it needs to be done. I will not change how I trade to make losses back. I stay the course and do what I know to be best.

Losses are a part of this world. I've excepted it and am prepared to move on. My last loss was a lot worse. I lost 14% of the account back in Feb of this year. I had a much larger loss cut off then. You can see how my loss played out and how 6 weeks later I was able to make just about all of that loss back. Slow and steady.

[trytry]

The point HedgeBitcoin makes is very valid. Your wins are miniscule compared to your large loss. Anyone who just started following you is in a big loss to start off with. Interested here because of NA regulations and having an acct with Oanda. But from here, how you recover with your stats will be interesting...

[Ryan]

please can you provide an update for today

Yes, Today was my first basket loss in 6 months. I'm still in profit on the account but it's sitting currently at 4.89%. Losses are normal, I cut it at -7% like I said I would. Now its time to stick to my plan and slowly get above my high-water mark again. I should be able to do this in 4-6 weeks.

Her's a pic of what things looked like before the loss.... The EJ was 10 pips away from my TP at one point. Just never hit. The JPY was the problem here. The elections and uncertain stimulus concerns caused massive weakening on the JPY.

EURJPYH1.png

[fabx]

please can you provide an update for today

[Ryan]

Latest trade on the GA. 2 trade basket here. Profit was hit on the red line at 1.73851. Banked 30 pips total profit from these 2 trades.

GBP pairs still scare me right now. Brexit concerns are still looming. I'm likely to go back to not touching the GBP till it finds more solid ground.

GBPAUDH1.png

[Ryan]

Today's trade on EU. 40 pips take profit hit!

I'm still in the top 25 on SignalTrader.com. https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...nt-Signal.html EURUSDH1.png

[Ryan]

My signal went live today! I recieved a 22 rank placement on signaltrader.com market place! https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...nt-Signal.html

I attached 2 screenshots from my latest AU trade. AUDUSDH1.png

[Ryan]

image_1752.png Hi everyone. Here is my latest trade. I took it on the UJ when my criteria was met. Haven't placed a trade sense the 21st because of the Brexit until now. This trade took profit in under 2 hours.

[Ryan]

Since I have experience with automation, I know that statistics are more important than everything else. The probability plays out over an extended period of time. A short data series hides the flaw in many strategies that only become more apparent once a loss has been taken. For example your ATC account. took more than 45 days and didn't recover the loss entirely.

All Strategies experience drawdown, whether you hold losses and wait for a recovery, or take a loss and recover from new opportunities. The ratios are all the matter because time is money and wasted time during recovery can make the investment not worth the time (not in your case, I do like the ratios as I mentioned before, but I'll need to see how frequently the stopouts happen over a longer period of time before any real ratios can be calculated).

That's the reason why I look through traders statements since I can't backtest a manual trader

Yes, you're right about my ATC account. ATC brokers went bankrupt and my account was forced to ATC's partnered broker FXCM. I was not able to recover the entire loss before my account was forced to FXCM. I have to live with this -1.63% on this account. My 2 FXCM accounts that fallowed combined pulled in 1.87% profit. These 2 accounts did recover this remaining loss though.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/lilr...c-live/1513724
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/lilr...e-main/1558506
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/lilr...ccount/1569678

It's good to be skeptical. I'm not here to hide stats or to tell false things to make myself look better. I tell people how it is. I hate sugar coating things. It is hard to track everything because of how many times I've unfortunately had to change brokers. So I'm happy to answer questions regarding this.

When my next trade happens I plan to post it here. Leverage on most brokers is still reduced. Interactive Brokers leverage is typically 50:1 but right now it's 13:1 on the GBP and just 20:1 on the EURO. It's possible I may not take any trades this week till leverage is back to normal.

[HedgeBitcoin]

Since I have experience with automation, I know that statistics are more important than everything else. The probability plays out over an extended period of time. A short data series hides the flaw in many strategies that only become more apparent once a loss has been taken. For example your ATC account. took more than 45 days and didn't recover the loss entirely.

All Strategies experience drawdown, whether you hold losses and wait for a recovery, or take a loss and recover from new opportunities. The ratios are all the matter because time is money and wasted time during recovery can make the investment not worth the time (not in your case, I do like the ratios as I mentioned before, but I'll need to see how frequently the stopouts happen over a longer period of time before any real ratios can be calculated).

That's the reason why I look through traders statements since I can't backtest a manual trader

[Ryan]

Thanks! Yes, Most traders get stuck on the ratios. I tell them to through this idea that you need at least a 1:1 win ratio to be profitable long-term in forex. This is so not true. I've already proven this myth wrong with over 14 months profitable track record. 14 months is not an incredibly long time but it's enough to debunk that myth. In the past 14 months I've used different system creations of my own but they all incorporate this type of risk management. I honestly think traders that don't implement some kind of basket trading will never be profitable. The reason for this is the streams of losses that happen. Yes, win streaks can happen as well but it's the losing streaks that are really hard to get out of. It took me almost 10 years to realize I had the wrong idea about risk management. It's really what was setting me back.
Not to mention....The traders that trade in this standard risk management way usually have awful balance/equity curves. My DD will never exceed -7% because I have an EA managing that max cut off for me. I may manually close a losing basket at -5% or -6% if I see no possible return in my basket.

Yes, 5-7% loss cut off is in relation to my average monthly 4-5% profit. If I have a loss, I should be able to make it back in a 4-6 week period.

Oh, by the way.... I make about 0.20% profit per trade.

My last loss (using a different system of mine) was on feb 4th. I lost 14% on that account but made all the loss back in a 6 week time frame. You can see this on my ATC account stats. I'm using a different system now and and risking half what I was before at -7%

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/lilr...c-live/1513724

[HedgeBitcoin]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, Verdana, sans-serif][COLOR=#111111][SIZE=12px]No problem.
I cut losses at max 7%.
I will basket trade if a trade does not hit my 20 pips take profit until I hit a loss of 5-7%.
This gives me a lot of breathing room to read the market for possible reversal points to help change a losing trade into a winning or break even one.
A good portion of my trades hit my 20 pips TP level because I'm only looking for a small piece of a large pie. My win % on my trades is 73%. My win rate on my first trades is decent and the 73% should be evident of this.

Let me know if I can answer more questions. I love talking forex!

Great to hear you love FX, Lets begin digging deeper. From what I see, a 20 pip gain about 0.15% increase in your account balance , You are willing to risk 7% (whether this will hold up in the future is more important than what your previous peak drawdown were.) Most traders don't enjoy taking losses and the fact that you average in to make a breakeven worries me because you are already talking about a win rate of 70%+. When you add to losers the win rate becomes invalid because it is distorted by the averaging. Your system does not have a decent risk/reward when you compare 0.15% gain to a 7% loss. Which is fine as long as you keep trading daily and keep those monthly gains coming in.

I do like the 4-5% monthly gains while risking near 5-7%. I can handle that over the long term but I'll need more history and wait for that inevitable stopout to ensure you stick to the 7% DD. Best luck with your trading and keep on churning.