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How come some signals are so misleading on the ranking list?

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  • How come some signals are so misleading on the ranking list?

    I have noticed there is a problem with the way how the drawdown is calculated and the systems ranking here. It apparently doesn't reflect the actual risk of the systems at all. I see some signals with open positions down over 15%, but DD shown is less than 2% (so open positions are not counted as long as they keep holding them and not realize the loss, can still rank top 3? LOL) It's ridiculous that I have even seen 0% DD, 100% winning trades, but with a lot of loss open. I think I will get killed and blow my account someday if I trust this ranking without looking into the details. It's very misleading and inaccurate. What's the point of this?
    Last edited by YY; 02-04-2016, 06:07 AM.

  • #2
    Originally posted by YY View Post
    I have noticed there is a problem with the way how the drawdown is calculated and the systems ranking here. It apparently doesn't reflect the actual risk of the systems at all. I see some signals with open positions down over 15%, but DD shown is less than 2% (so open positions are not counted as long as they keep holding them and not realize the loss, can still rank top 3? LOL) It's ridiculous that I have even seen 0% DD, 100% winning trades, but with a lot of loss open. I think I will get killed and blow my account someday if I trust this ranking without looking into the details. It's very misleading and inaccurate. What's the point of this?
    Yeah...I've always wondered about how this works as well..

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    • #3
      Hmm.. Something smells fishy. The DD is calculated very odd at simpletrader.net... Maybe its an error ? We can just look at the top 3 and we can easy see and calculate that the DD is much bigger than 1%

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      • #4
        Compare the "End of Day" drawdown stats on ST with the myfxbook account. they are not always the exact same figures. I guess there could be a variation due to the time that both camps base their "end of day" on. be good if someone could clarify these calculations.

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        • #5
          Another example
          https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/4949/iGold.html

          Currently a drawdown of 50% and ranked 2nd and max drawdown of 1%...

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          • #6
            simple trader calculated the DD only when there is an order execution, therefore, if a trader in time of DD doesn't buy or sell, the system will not realize the DD. It sucks. I had a discussion with one of the team and he told me this is the standard. Doesn't work like this on ST where the DD is updated in real time...so, in my opinion, if it is a standard...the standard needs to change.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by miul View Post
              simple trader calculated the DD only when there is an order execution, therefore, if a trader in time of DD doesn't buy or sell, the system will not realize the DD. It sucks. I had a discussion with one of the team and he told me this is the standard. Doesn't work like this on ST where the DD is updated in real time...so, in my opinion, if it is a standard...the standard needs to change.
              Of course, it's not the standard. It's ignorance.
              It's very dangerous because it can hide the current floating drawdown until the margin call. The fluctuations of the drawdowns are hidden and this information is crucial to assess properly the reliability of a trading system.
              The nirvana of losing systems such as Grid and hedging :-)

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              • #8
                There should be a filter to short signals based on criteria and filters. Save it to my list and also remove. Example all grid, hedge can be put in a list, Price Action, etc. Always double check with Myfxbook, if no link forget it. The more trader capital the better, a filter with traders capital, duration of signal very important my2cents nc!

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                • #9
                  and maybe number of copiers,...

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by smejko View Post
                    and maybe number of copiers,...
                    I dont think this will be applied for a special reason :P. Im not sure but I dont think Nick wants us to know how mutch Simpletrader is earning from signal providers ^^.

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                    • #11
                      Hi,

                      We do store end of day DD much like myfxbook but you are correct in that we do it based on GMT while myfxbook does it based on broker time. If we are successfully getting the data through from the copier then we will display all the information that we can.

                      As an example we display it here:

                      https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/633/FX-Viper.html

                      You'll see the floating DD is being shown as part of the equity line, however the reason for this is because there was a trade closed yesterday. If there hadn't been a trade closed then it doesn't show "today". This is something we are aware of and we will be looking to change how the graphs display the information. The reason it doesn't show today (unless there are closed trades) is that this data is generated in the background and not real time (for page load speed).

                      In terms of how the rank works - the rank equation is:

                      equitygrowth / (equitygrowth/drawdown) / (drawdown * standard deviation of equity * worst daily equity change)

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by WillT View Post
                        Hi,

                        We do store end of day DD much like myfxbook but you are correct in that we do it based on GMT while myfxbook does it based on broker time. If we are successfully getting the data through from the copier then we will display all the information that we can.

                        As an example we display it here:

                        https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/633/FX-Viper.html

                        You'll see the floating DD is being shown as part of the equity line, however the reason for this is because there was a trade closed yesterday. If there hadn't been a trade closed then it doesn't show "today". This is something we are aware of and we will be looking to change how the graphs display the information. The reason it doesn't show today (unless there are closed trades) is that this data is generated in the background and not real time (for page load speed).

                        In terms of how the rank works - the rank equation is:

                        equitygrowth / (equitygrowth/drawdown) / (drawdown * standard deviation of equity * worst daily equity change)
                        There is some problems with this equation. I don't know if anyone noticed...
                        1. If the real time drawdown can't even be captured accurately, even high risk ones can rank at the top as long as the big loss is not realized becuz the price will always come back. LOL
                        2. For those who rarely use stop loss, their # of winning trades is high, standard deviation is usually LOW. This equation can't reflect and evaluate the potential risks of blowing the account. It's over simplistic and naive. Human can detect it easily.

                        IMO this rank is joke and nonsense, it's too surface
                        Last edited by YY; 02-11-2016, 12:25 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Tripzor View Post
                          Another example
                          https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/4949/iGold.html

                          Currently a drawdown of 50% and ranked 2nd and max drawdown of 1%...
                          Account wiped now.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Hi guys, I will work through the system and check exactly how this was developed. We developed this a LONG time ago so its not fresh in my memory at all.

                            I will come back to you but I'm going to have to fit this into my other work load so give me a few days.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I'll update this thread as I work through things.

                              1. We do store Drawdown on a minute by minute basis - so we are fully aware of the max DD that a system is in. We then convert that worst value to end of day DD.

                              I think the issue here is related to the fact that we are not looking at open trades and taking this into account. We DO however make sure that we have the real live DD figures and we do store this constantly. I will keep digging through this - update and try and make the corrected amends that we are all agreeing is required.

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