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  • Originally posted by AlphaTrader View Post

    It always worries me when I see a trader says they will make some changes or testing something else. Especially if the intention is to make the losses back slightly faster. Sometimes our strategy will be out of sync with the market and we have drawdown and that's normal and no changes should be made. If it's the trader that causes the drawdown, then something should change.

    When drawdown occurs, most investors/followers will hope/expect that the trader to make some changes to prevent the same thing happen again or recoup losses faster without knowing sometimes it's just our strategy isn't in tune with the market.

    I hope the changes you made will turn out better for everyone here.
    You bring up a good point. I have decided not to add the EA. At least not yet. I want to do some live testing with it for 2-4 weeks before it's considered for my live account. Backtests look good but we know how backtests are...Flawed.

    I have decided not to make any changes before you wrote this message. The UJ trade that we lost on was a bit of a fluke. I wanted to close at a -2% loss on my personal account but didn't want to lose -12% on the MAM account. I ended up closing at a worse -5% (-30% on the MAM). I was torn what the best decision was here. I admit the MAM was a bit of a distraction with these UJ trades at 6X risk but I promise I won't let it make decisions for me in the feature. I will play things out as I think best on my personal account and that will be reflected on the MAM.

    I repeat, I will not be changing anything as I don't see the need yet.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by moates View Post
      Hmm... maybe I should take a shot at running the MAM account . Some of you might already be watching my live YouTube Forex stream.

      http://www.youtube.com/user/mike2246s/live

      Link to myfxbook below.

      http://www.myfxbook.com/members/moat...-forex/1684814
      Hi Moates, where is your official thread in this forum? I prefer not to post in the youtube chat.. it would be good to have a forum thread complementary to your chatroom in forexsignals live trade room. Hope to see it soon.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Ryan (analyst) View Post

        You bring up a good point. I have decided not to add the EA. At least not yet. I want to do some live testing with it for 2-4 weeks before it's considered for my live account. Backtests look good but we know how backtests are...Flawed.

        I have decided not to make any changes before you wrote this message. The UJ trade that we lost on was a bit of a fluke. I wanted to close at a -2% loss on my personal account but didn't want to lose -12% on the MAM account. I ended up closing at a worse -5% (-30% on the MAM). I was torn what the best decision was here. I admit the MAM was a bit of a distraction with these UJ trades at 6X risk but I promise I won't let it make decisions for me in the feature. I will play things out as I think best on my personal account and that will be reflected on the MAM.

        I repeat, I will not be changing anything as I don't see the need yet.
        Good to hear that, just forward test it a few weeks before making it live. I can feel you, the pressure is huge especially with 6x on your shoulders!

        Good Luck and all the best!

        Comment


        • For those that aren't aware I do a ranking table in my thread to compare my performance against Nick's Elite Traders. It was recently announced that Kilimanjaro has been retired due to Stagnation . Hence a replacement is needed for my monthly ranking table. Now judging by the mood in the Forum I see that many investors see Ryan as a superb trader. I also feel that it's only a matter of days before Nick invites him to become one of his Elite Traders. So to see how he fairs against other Elite traders and against myself I am including him in the ranking for September and the months ahead. Wishing you well and hope you do amazing Ryan.
          Last edited by Balboa; 09-06-2016, 10:10 PM.

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          • Update plz

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            • Originally posted by davidkalugin View Post
              Update plz
              I agree.

              Also not sure if we are supposed to have a GJ sell at the bottom as it's a pullback system? Currently GBP and JPY seem to be the weakest so we are really heavy on these 2 pairs with some very big risk for GBP coming up in 8 hours we are in too heavy and can't see any way of making money unless we reduce exposure here.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by davidkalugin View Post
                Update plz
                Sure....

                So, As we know I was in the GU trades earlier today. I had a feeling they would push a bit lower so I took a hedge on another GBP pair. I took the hedge on the GBPJPY. This would have been great. I was expecting some hedge profit on the GJ but we got some unfortunate news on the JPY that caused the JPY to fall hard on pretty much every pair today. This news was unexpected. Very bad timing. This means for me at the current moment, the GJ is not really acting as a hedge since it's being driven by the JPY. I'm thinking this behavior is limited but I don't know how long the JPY will ride pairs.

                News comes out in 8.5 hours on the GBP. I'll be getting up to make sure everything is ok with these GU and GJ trades before the news comes out. Keep in mind that the GJ and GU are hedged. I'm buying the GU and selling the GJ. Again, The idea was to profit on the GJ while the GU was in DD. Also encase it went more into DD I would be hedged on the other side. Hedging at a US regulated broker needs to be done on another pair because of the fifo regulation and that's why I chose the GJ.

                I should be fine here when the GBP news comes out in 8.5 hours. I'll be watching these closely.

                Taking the hedge was not a mistake. Just unfortunate timing because of the unexpected JPY news today.

                Right now I'm at 1.7% DD

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Big River Man View Post

                  I agree.

                  Also not sure if we are supposed to have a GJ sell at the bottom as it's a pullback system? Currently GBP and JPY seem to be the weakest so we are really heavy on these 2 pairs with some very big risk for GBP coming up in 8 hours we are in too heavy and can't see any way of making money unless we reduce exposure here.

                  We are not in to heavy. Not yet at least. Like I said. I will be watching these closely.

                  1.7% is not to heavy. This GBP news in 8 hours is not as heavy as the news coming out Thursday. When the news comes out, ALL eyes will be on the GBP. Once the news is decided, people will be driving the GBP. Remember I'm selling the GJ and buying the GU. The outcome will likely be one will be in profit while the other is in loss.

                  Once one side is in profit I will be taking a larger profit then usual. On the losing side I will be playing it out a safe as possible so we can come out with a BE or small profit.

                  Comment


                  • Ryan, poundyen is not hedge for cable as you found out already.
                    Next time take usdjpy trade as well to hedge gbpusd by gj and uj simultaneously. Though, I'm not sure if you could have done that this time as you probably already had usdjpy on table.
                    Good luck with news!
                    Take care

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Vidster View Post
                      Ryan, poundyen is not hedge for cable as you found out already.
                      Next time take usdjpy trade as well to hedge gbpusd by gj and uj simultaneously. Though, I'm not sure if you could have done that this time as you probably already had usdjpy on table.
                      Good luck with news!
                      Take care
                      Exactly. It's not a hedge. You are choosing a pair that is DIRECTLY correlated to risk. Aaaargh it's manic. Of all the pairs to synthetically hedge with it's just crazy.

                      Ryan please take this into note in the future, we are in big drawdwon now and there isn't even a hedge anymore, and your original pair and trade worked out fine. If hedging is not a part of the system especialy if it's a bad hedge which isn't really correlated then why do it.
                      This just kills me that I could of got out BE for UJ 2 weeks ago and also the same for GJ this morning. Now it's a 50:50 call about data and that's it, but in relaity it's less as momentum is with yen weakness. As soon as that news came out it should of changed your bias.
                      Anyway hidsight and support and all that which I am a natural advocate of but stuff like this just sends me mad. Good luck getting us out of this let's just pray for GBP bad news.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Big River Man View Post

                        Exactly. It's not a hedge. You are choosing a pair that is DIRECTLY correlated to risk. Aaaargh it's manic. Of all the pairs to synthetically hedge with it's just crazy.

                        Ryan please take this into note in the future, we are in big drawdwon now and there isn't even a hedge anymore, and your original pair and trade worked out fine. If hedging is not a part of the system especialy if it's a bad hedge which isn't really correlated then why do it.
                        This just kills me that I could of got out BE for UJ 2 weeks ago and also the same for GJ this morning. Now it's a 50:50 call about data and that's it, but in relaity it's less as momentum is with yen weakness. As soon as that news came out it should of changed your bias.
                        Anyway hidsight and support and all that which I am a natural advocate of but stuff like this just sends me mad. Good luck getting us out of this let's just pray for GBP bad news.


                        So I would admit. The GJ was not the best hedge here but....In my defense the JPY had virtually no scheduled fundamental news this week! This news... http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Econ...negative-rates Really hurt me on my GJ. Caused the GJ to move up strictly because of the JPY.


                        I expected the GBP to mostly drive price this week on most if not all GBP pairs. Just look at the news coming out this week on the GBP. It's why I chose the GJ as a hedge.

                        So the news has come out. It was overall negative GBP, but just because it reads that way does not mean it will fallow. I will continue to watch the GJ closely today.

                        Yes, the UJ would have been a good positive correlation hedge but again.... The reason this was a good choice is because the price was being driven by the JPY and well we already talked about the news.


                        Guys....You must realize. The trades on the GU and the hedge trades on the GJ were not the problem here. It was the unexpected news on the JPY. Unfortunately every trader is prone to unexpected (not scheduled) fundamentals and I just happened to get stuck in one here.
                        Last edited by Ryan; 09-14-2016, 08:56 AM.

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                        • You could of got out at .3% up on gj just a few minutes ago. I hope greed does not get to you

                          Sent from my LG-H850 using Tapatalk

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by dazz1975 View Post
                            You could of got out at .3% up on gj just a few minutes ago. I hope greed does not get to you

                            Sent from my LG-H850 using Tapatalk
                            You don't think I'm watching? I see a retracement happening right now. I'm holding for the correction. I won't be taking much here. 0.5-1.0% profit. A tad more then usual. I'm watching price to see how it's behaving and from what I saw, the move was strong down. I expect more. Now, there's always the chance I'm wrong here but I'm going to go with what I'm seeing.
                            Last edited by Ryan; 09-14-2016, 10:04 AM.

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                            • So all trades closed out. I saw it playing with my TP so I started closing out. The profit I took on my account was not huge. I started closing out at 0.5% but ended up taking just 0.25% because of volatility. Oh well. We came out of this one alive.

                              Plan to be a bit more cautious on my hedge if I happen to take one again. Likely not a common thing I will be doing.

                              Thanks for hanging in there with me guys!

                              Comment


                              • I would like to say something though...You guys complain quite a bit when I'm even in just 1.5-2% DD. Every once in a while it would be nice to here about some of the good things or calls I make. lol.

                                Also, you like to question what I do. You may say it's dumb or a bad idea to do what I do but I ALWAYS have a reason. I'm not just some emotional trader that likes to click buttons so please stop thinking that!

                                Lets keep moving forward. Slow and steady.

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