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BREASTSTROKE's Trading.

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  • #16
    [QUOTE]

    Pick one: Stop Loss or Margin Call.

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    • #17
      Dealing with currency pair correlation:

      An issue with trading 28 Paris composed of 8 unique major currencies is you are bound to experience effect of pair correlation.

      here. First, correlation is different for each time frame. Pairs correlated in 5M are not correlated in 1D. Also, pairs can be correlated to each other due to market sentiment till their correlation goes away. A good example can be of JPY and CHF, which fundamentally become stronger when market is risk averse. But as soon as the risk averse sentiment goes away, this correlation brakes.

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      • #18

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        • #19
          NOT do anything.

          • NOT entering the trade.
          • NOT hitting that take profit button.
          • NOT moving stop loss.
          Attached Files

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          • #20
            Balls of Steel




            There are 2 giant steel balls in the heart of the city I live in. Locals are actually very touchy about it. There have been fights on where they should be placed and whether they should be altogether removed or not.

            These are exactly the size of balls a trader need to let winners run and losers die.
            Attached Files

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            • #21
              Last couple of weeks have been quite interesting.

              First, I missed a few good higher time frame trades due to other commitments.
              Second, my schedule has changed in a way where now I am able to really sit on my trading desk for a while and enter trades on a smaller time frame.
              I believe, I am not a bad scalper at all. But the heart wants what it wants (swing/position/longterm trading) and the way I trade lower time frames currently is that I focus on participating in the market from a low risk point then take some profits off the table and keep a smaller size position of about 1x leverage open after moving SL to BE. This gives me some quick small wins and allows me to potentially position myself for longer term trend.

              Monday, which was public holiday in Australia went really well. Up 1%. Tuesday was slightly better 1.1% or so. By then I was out of all the drawdown.

              But the featured trade of the last week is the losing USDJPY trade.



              Now, USDJPY moved about 300 pips as many would know on BoJ doing 'nothing'.
              (This is exactly why I preach SL. And I had a 0.4% SL for this one or so I thought)

              Turns out that the EA I trust to set SL automatically has a bug. I entered in this trade before the news with a small deleveraged position. News hit the
              wire and the price started falling before my eyes, which is really ok as this happens and you can be either right or wrong on any of your trade. But when it crossed a hundred pip in the matter of seconds instead of hitting ~ 25 pip SL, I realized that I have to intervene manually. Still I got out for a loss of -1.5% ... which wiped out majority of the other gains acquired earlier in the week. I think I have found the bug in trade manager and have reported it to the developer. Hopefully they will sort it out soon.

              Meanwhile I have learned to manually verify that trade manager has set SL in every trade. This will make sure that I can keep participating in the market after a losing trade. That is a traders only job, to keep participating the market (from a position of low risk). Everything else is just an explanation. (use SL, letting winners run, avoiding news, trade trend etc etc)

              Comment


              • #22
                Hmmm.... A couple of questions:

                1. In your first post you mentioned that "I just trade a single setup which I know very very well. Perhaps I understand that setup better than anyone in the world or at least I would like to think that thats the case". Now, however, it sounds like you're abandoning that method and doing something different?

                2. Perhaps I am being overly cynical here, but I have to say that blaming the performance to date on:
                • missing some profitable trades because of "other commitments"; and
                • a bug with your trade manager
                does not fill me with confidence...

                Originally posted by breaststroke View Post
                Last couple of weeks have been quite interesting.

                First, I missed a few good higher time frame trades due to other commitments.
                Second, my schedule has changed in a way where now I am able to really sit on my trading desk for a while and enter trades on a smaller time frame.
                I believe, I am not a bad scalper at all. But the heart wants what it wants (swing/position/longterm trading) and the way I trade lower time frames currently is that I focus on participating in the market from a low risk point then take some profits off the table and keep a smaller size position of about 1x leverage open after moving SL to BE. This gives me some quick small wins and allows me to potentially position myself for longer term trend.

                Monday, which was public holiday in Australia went really well. Up 1%. Tuesday was slightly better 1.1% or so. By then I was out of all the drawdown.

                But the featured trade of the last week is the losing USDJPY trade.



                Now, USDJPY moved about 300 pips as many would know on BoJ doing 'nothing'.
                (This is exactly why I preach SL. And I had a 0.4% SL for this one or so I thought)

                Turns out that the EA I trust to set SL automatically has a bug. I entered in this trade before the news with a small deleveraged position. News hit the
                wire and the price started falling before my eyes, which is really ok as this happens and you can be either right or wrong on any of your trade. But when it crossed a hundred pip in the matter of seconds instead of hitting ~ 25 pip SL, I realized that I have to intervene manually. Still I got out for a loss of -1.5% ... which wiped out majority of the other gains acquired earlier in the week. I think I have found the bug in trade manager and have reported it to the developer. Hopefully they will sort it out soon.

                Meanwhile I have learned to manually verify that trade manager has set SL in every trade. This will make sure that I can keep participating in the market after a losing trade. That is a traders only job, to keep participating the market (from a position of low risk). Everything else is just an explanation. (use SL, letting winners run, avoiding news, trade trend etc etc)

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by withnail View Post
                  Hmmm.... A couple of questions:

                  1. In your first post you mentioned that "I just trade a single setup which I know very very well. Perhaps I understand that setup better than anyone in the world or at least I would like to think that thats the case". Now, however, it sounds like you're abandoning that method and doing something different?

                  2. Perhaps I am being overly cynical here, but I have to say that blaming the performance to date on:
                  • missing some profitable trades because of "other commitments"; and
                  • a bug with your trade manager
                  does not fill me with confidence...

                  1. No. I still trade the same thing. I still trade all the pairs. And I still trade charts.
                  2. Well! That's why I don't offer any paid service right now. To see and fix any glitches first. But if you are investor, then please don't subscribe to me if you have an iota of doubt. There are hundreds of traders on simpletrader and elsewhere, have you pick.
                  Last edited by breaststroke; 05-04-2016, 11:44 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    I wont be offering any subs for a couple of months at least. And I have no interest in luring in people to subscribe for a quick buck.

                    Meanwhile, I will keep trading for myself.

                    If an when I offer subs, I will still trade for myself. If you think I am decent trader, you would be able to follow. But it will remain a follower job to make sure he picks the right risk, broker, VPS etc.

                    I would not change anything at all just because some one is following me. (That's the whole point). First and foremost I will trade for myself and other will get an option to follow if they want.

                    Also, If and when I do offer subscription, I would like to reserve right to fire any follower at will once his initial subscription period is over and before its renewal. As I beleive choice to work together should be mutual. Just like some one can decide to subscribe to a trader or not, a trader should have right to allow or block a subscriber.

                    Don't agree, feel confident, at ease, interested? No worries... Subscribe to someone else.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Thanks, and noted

                      I wish you luck, and for now will keep watching from the sidelines.

                      Originally posted by breaststroke View Post


                      1. No. I still trade the same thing. I still trade all the pairs. And I still trade charts.
                      2. Well! That's why I don't offer any paid service right now. To see and fix any glitches first. But if you are investor, then please don't subscribe to me if you have an iota of doubt. There are hundreds of traders on simpletrader and elsewhere, have you pick.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        • Trade metals Or indices. All hail the Currencies!
                        • Trading without stop losses.
                        • Loosening up original stop loss to give trade more breathing room. (Never!)
                        • Averaging down (Adding to a losing position making it a grid basket which is closed if price ever comes back.)
                        Will do following things (Always):
                        • Participate in market from a position of low risk. (That's my only job)
                        • Use Stop loss.
                        • Keeping an eye on and going for mega win while keeping the losses static.
                        PTJ.jpg
                        GUESS WHO?
                        Last edited by breaststroke; 05-05-2016, 12:01 AM.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          I don't want a small probability of ruin, I want zero.
                          Because if you have a small probability of ruin, any given day, over time, you will be ruined. It is just matter of time.
                          Source: www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-05-12/nassim-taleb-on-the-importance-of-probability

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Changing my (trading) religion

                            • More fundamentals and even more news: I have always looked at fundamentals but mostly for the purposes of risk management and profit taking. But I will be using fundamentals and newsLess price actionwhy I will enter in a trade.
                            • Trimming my focus to less number of pairs: Now that understand the sentiment and market happenings have taken a centre stage, I will need to trim down on the pairs I focus on or a better way to say it is to trim the currencies I focus on at any given time and find a suitable instrument (trading pair) to trade the opportunity later. This is not to say that I will only trade handful of pairs, in fact now I plan to trade exotics as well, but if and only if I understand what is happening.


                            There is no better guarantee to make a consistent profit in the market then to learn to understand what the heck is actually going on.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Persistence over stubbornness:
                              Become aware of what is happening and take a position when odds are ridiculously in my favour.
                              Worse drawback of this approach is that it is not possible to go on vacation and come back at leisure, take a look at the charts and enter a position. I need to be aware of what is going on around me pretty much all the time. It is not necessary for me to be in a position rather I need to wait for when in my opinion odds are ridiculously in my favour.

                              I now have pretty much binary view of market.

                              X is either going up or going down.

                              I however will enter when I think that odds are ridiculously stacked in one direction. Such conviction is not merely result of a chart, but rather, news, technical, fundamentals and sentiment as well.

                              Stop loss exits are based on odds decreased, hitting 1-2% loss on a single trade or 5% on a single idea.
                              Profit taking exists are based on loss of conviction of original idea, medium term EMAs and historical data like how % X moves in a day, week or when similar event happened.

                              I will never do grids. I really have a huge disliking to grids. Grids feels like cheating to one's own self. And I will never add to a loser. **** losers. Single most important thing in trading is to have an overall edge and then be able to trade forever so that that edge can play out. Grids are a sure way that odds will destroy you and whatever you have earned during the good times.
                              Last edited by breaststroke; 10-03-2016, 11:55 AM.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                I have been rather busy. Couldn't trade or write too much. But I have been learning and learning and learning. I have modified my strategy a lot. I am definitely not a pure chartist anymore.

                                "When the facts change, I change my mind"- Some wise man.
                                I have written a post about newer strategy, just need to clean it up a bit. Hopefully, will post soon.

                                But here's my latest post for now:
                                Moved from Pepperstone to FXCM

                                I have moved from Pepperstone to FXCM AU. No particular complains about Pepperstone. They have been good. But FXCM has many distinct advantages on Pepperstone such as:
                                • Regulated to the hilt across multiple continents.
                                • Reformed broker. They have had their own blunders, but lets just say that they have learned their lessons (the hard way).
                                • Access to multiple platform using a single account login i.e. MT4, Tradestation2, PTMC, Trading View, Ninja Trader and many others. No other broker has access to so many different platform using same user/password. Although I dont find any particular platform a must have necessity for me any more, but it is always good to have more toys.
                                • 0.5 ms connection to their trading server from (free) VPS. Good to have end of the world stop loss.
                                • Exclusive in house volume and transactions indicators.
                                • Good support. To be honest, Pepperstone wasnt bad either.
                                • One of the largest retail forex broker in the world. Their average daily volume exceeds other popular brokers monthly volumes.
                                • And finally, arguably one of the best liquidity and price feed on retail end. During recent GBP flash crash, GBPUSD gaped down hundred of pips less on FXCM than all other brokers I checked.

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