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Consistent Alpha * Long Term Trading

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Anton123 View Post
    I do copy the TP, but not the SL, for following reasons:
    - Copying the SL made me several times having a loss when the master had a win. Because of price quotes' differences between my broker and master's, the SL was hit for me, but not for master. Then, the trade turned back and hit the TP on master, while I was out because of SL. This is extremely painful. So, for short-time/scalper signals, it's openly recommended to NOT set the SL (for example, in Smart2/Smart Scalper topic);
    - Having a visible SL allows brokers to do "stop-hunting";
    - During my 3-years with SimpleTrader, I never had a single case of master being disconnected for several hours, so I believed the risk of such event was very low.

    This said, I agree that Consistent Alpha signal is rather a long-term one, so it makes sense to copy the SL for this signal.
    Hi Anton,

    No worries on the subject of "stop hunting" and the differences in price quotes. In fact I've the same entry, SL and TP across all different brokers that I use (FXCM, Oanda, etc.). I've factored in all the potential spreads difference before entering them. If the SL is triggered in either one of my accounts, the setup is considered failed and in some lucky events where one broker did not triggered my SL while others did (due to quotes difference), I will still close the position at BE (if possible) but in most cases, if the SL is not triggered today, it's likely going to get triggered the next day. That's kind of a benefit for long term trading in my view, a few pips differences doesn't matter which frees us from the headache of spreads and slippage.

    Originally posted by Anton123 View Post
    Hello, thanks for your attention.
    As I mentioned, I was closed at 0.9722 instead of 0.9690, 32 pips more, so it does not went over 6%. But since the previous trade was also a loss, and the current CADJPY sell does not look too promising either, it does hurt a bit.
    As usually, joining the signal during a losing streak
    The actual SL for this trade is around 65-70pips (Not really sure how much it was in the beginning as I do not use pips in measuring wins and loss, using percentage points would be more accurate in the way I trade) and I trailed it down to 55pips as price goes in my favor but it still hurts to see an extra 1x pips of losses on your side. I understand how it feels when it's in a losing streak, it makes us doubts and hurts. Hopefully we can get through it soon. FYI, my trading strategy win rate is around 45%-50% and mathematically it's normal to have 4 losses in a row and this is when risk management comes into play. That's also the reason why I do not recommend my subscribers to increase the risk multiplier if they are subscribing to 2xR.

    Hopefully the CAD/JPY trade will turn around although it does not looks promising at the moment It's a false breakout trade.


    Tony

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    • #17
      Originally posted by AlphaTrader View Post
      Hopefully the CAD/JPY trade will turn around although it does not looks promising at the moment It's a false breakout trade.
      Tony
      Hello, Tony,
      is this normal that the TP for this trade had been moved to breakeven? Thanks.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Anton123 View Post
        Hello, Tony,
        is this normal that the TP for this trade had been moved to breakeven? Thanks.
        Hi yes, it's normal as I'm taking on EUR/JPY.

        Comment


        • #19
          Dame 16% hit in 4 days. Not good

          Upwards from here hopefully.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Gunther View Post
            Dame 16% hit in 4 days. Not good

            Upwards from here hopefully.
            Hi Gunther,

            Keep in mind that there could be another 4 losing streaks coming. The probability will not simply turn into our favor just because we have a few losers in a row. Whether we've 2 losses in a row or 10 losses in a row, the probability of the next trade is still the same. Although I've wrote about risk management & drawdowns in the first post and in ST signal information page, I think some copiers still do not quite get it yet. I'll dedicate another post regarding these when I get some free time soon.


            Tony

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by AlphaTrader View Post
              Hi Gunther,

              Keep in mind that there could be another 4 losing streaks coming. The probability will not simply turn into our favor just because we have a few losers in a row. Whether we've 2 losses in a row or 10 losses in a row, the probability of the next trade is still the same. Although I've wrote about risk management & drawdowns in the first post and in ST signal information page, I think some copiers still do not quite get it yet. I'll dedicate another post regarding these when I get some free time soon.


              Tony
              I understand the RM and we could get another 4 losers or winners, hence the "hopefully" for 4 winners instead. Thanks for your prompt comment

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Gunther View Post
                I understand the RM and we could get another 4 losers or winners, hence the "hopefully" for 4 winners instead. Thanks for your prompt comment
                You're welcome Gunther, enjoy your weekend

                Comment


                • #23
                  Hello! Is the EURNOK sell closed on master by SL at 9.29, please? I do not see it as closed at myfxbook and it's not yet updated at forexsignals...

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Anton123 View Post
                    Hello! Is the EURNOK sell closed on master by SL at 9.29, please? I do not see it as closed at myfxbook and it's not yet updated at forexsignals...
                    Hi Anton,

                    No it's not yet closed. Two brokers that are linked to myfxbook didn't hit the SL level yet. It might due to your broker widen the spread during volatile period. Not sure why ST hasn't update the trade yet, there's no disconnection from my server.

                    FYI, I'm using ICMarkets to offer signals.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      The EUR/NOK trade has closed at BE now, should be reflected in ST and myfxbook soon.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by AlphaTrader View Post

                        Hi Anton,

                        No it's not yet closed. Two brokers that are linked to myfxbook didn't hit the SL level yet. It might due to your broker widen the spread during volatile period. Not sure why ST hasn't update the trade yet, there's no disconnection from my server.

                        FYI, I'm using ICMarkets to offer signals.
                        Thanks! So now you see why I suggest deactivating SL... I was very clearly stoploss-hunted on this trade (I am with AxiTrader). The high was at 9.2816, and I was closed at 9.2930.
                        Of course, I will complain to the broker, but I haven't too much hope...
                        So five losses in a row for me and the 6th trade seems going to the same fate.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Anton123 View Post

                          Thanks! So now you see why I suggest deactivating SL... I was very clearly stoploss-hunted on this trade (I am with AxiTrader). The high was at 9.2816, and I was closed at 9.2930.
                          Of course, I will complain to the broker, but I haven't too much hope...
                          So five losses in a row for me and the 6th trade seems going to the same fate.
                          ​Hi Anton,

                          You may deactivate it if you see it as a better option based on the experience you have and brokers you use but making a decision based on 1 or 2 trades is not a good thing to do in my opinion. I've encountered "stop-hunt" in the past and continue to experience it (I do not view it as stop hunting) every now and then, it might happen 2 or 3 times a year but I still have a stop in place every time I make a trade. Over the long term, the pros will outweight the cons (at least for swing traders like me).

                          I'm sorry to hear that you're having five losses in a row but hopefully you will look pass it and things will turn around soon. FYI, May is still flat for us, April we are only down 0.96% and up +19.48% so far this year but I see quite a few copiers are getting nervous because they joined at my equity high.

                          There're a few ways to overcome the heat in your portfolio and your mental hurdles, the first is to reduce the risks you are taking, I myself is comfortable with risking 1%-2% on every trade I take, try assess your risk tolerance before taking on higher risk multiplier. That's what I see as the main issue in most copiers. Next, try thinking in terms of % and R instead of numbers of losers and winners.

                          The risk management I employ risk 2% on every trade, that being said, when I've losing streaks, I'll take on less and less risk in terms of dollar amount. For example, by risking 2% per trade, after 4 losses, that doesn't equal to 8% loss (If you risk 4% per trade, that doesn't mean you lose 16% after having 4 losers in a row). As the numbers of losers grow, the less impact it has on my account in terms of dollar and % in total. BTW, I do use trailing stops, so if you're just looking at the numbers of wins and loss (or making that number to have huge impact in your trading), you might not be looking at the whole picture.

                          Besides, I've a brief introduction about my strategy, risk reward ratio and my win rate in the signal information in ST as well as in the first post of this tread. My win rate is 45%-50%. If one has 80% win rate, having 3 losers in a row is very normal for them and I've only 45%-50% win rate, you will need to get used to having more losers in a row. You may also have noticed that I only trade setups that offer more than 1:2 risk:reward. With that, it only takes 2 wins to offset 4 losses and might even end up in profits. It's the same with 6 losses, 2-3wins to offset 6 losses and end up in profits. If you're used to high win rate and low risk:reward strategies which has less than 1R or even less than 0.5R or maybe like some grid or martingale systems that don't even looks at risk:reward, this concept might be harder for you to grasp but hopefully it may help you.

                          That's how I handle my emotions in trading throughout the last few years. Taking risk that I'm comfortable with, thinking in terms of quarterly results, looking at percentages & risk reward and have a longer term view. I hope these may help you in your trading.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Thank you! I in fact had read about your signal and style of trading before I joined. I was attracted by Profit Factor, Risk-to-Reward ratio and Best Trade/Worst trade ratio.
                            Two problems that I had were not linked to your signal directly, but to master's disconnection and brokers' SL-hunting.
                            So I will deactivate copying the SL. I believe the master disconnection is far less probable than hitting the SL when master doesn't.
                            By the way, have you moved your master to ST's server, to avoid disconnection, as ST suggested? Thanks.
                            Hope GBPCAD sell will end in profit!

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Well, 6th loss in a row, but it's another thing that bothers me:
                              Did you have another master disconnection this night? Because you closed the GBPCAD sell with 33 pips loss, but I lost 57 pips. Closing times do not match: there are several hours of difference. Also, you myfxbook account (http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Croc...--2x-r/1360484) still not updated with this trade.
                              It becomes impossible to correctly following your signal. If it continues, I'm afraid I'll have to leave...

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Anton123 View Post
                                Well, 6th loss in a row, but it's another thing that bothers me:
                                Did you have another master disconnection this night? Because you closed the GBPCAD sell with 33 pips loss, but I lost 57 pips. Closing times do not match: there are several hours of difference. Also, you myfxbook account (http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Croc...--2x-r/1360484) still not updated with this trade.
                                It becomes impossible to correctly following your signal. If it continues, I'm afraid I'll have to leave...

                                Hi Anton, I believe there's one disconnection at one of the account. Sorry for the late response as I was away in the last few days. We just had our 5th losses in a row, there's one breakeven trade in between and after 4 losing streak last month, we are down -0.96% for the month of April. I understand that you subscribed at the highest point of my equity curve and that does makes you feels uncomfortable but for me it really is just -0.96% of loss for last month and I used to not feeling any emotions with this kind of results. I would like to express a few thoughts over here.

                                For 6 years, I've never counted pips in my profit and loss.
                                For 6 years, I've never look at the numbers or wins and loss on any single trade.

                                I only look at whether I followed my rules, and how much I made and loss in percentage over every quarter. That's what I see and concern about. I never get bothered with a 10 pips of slippage (10 pips of slippage is nothing when I'm risking hundreds of pips on one trade and my position size is small and some pairs pip value is lower than other), or if this coming trade is going to be a winner or loser. It's all about the percentage for me. Taking the recent losing streaks for example, after having 5 losses in a row, my drawdown isn't 10%, but 8% although I risk 2% on each trade and only down -0.96% for the month. That's the reason calculating based on pips and number or winners and losers is inaccurate for my strategy thus I've never used them for years.

                                Among all the other stuff in trading, psychology and personality is the most talked about topic when we reach certain level in our trading. I believe there's some kind of chemistry in our mind and body that lead us to certain types of strategy. If I'm asked to scalp the market I would really going to lose my pants in no time. It's the same with high win rate trading strategy, I feel stressed out when I'm losing more than I earn in each trade although I've more winners than losers. For others, it might be the opposite, scalping, average down, grid and high win rate could be the bread and butter for some traders as they match their personality.

                                Based on all the conversations we have, I believe you will do better with strategy that offers higher win rate and shorter trading time frame. It's always better to goes where our heart leads, if things doesn't suits us and holding us back, leave them behind and pursue things that moves us forward.


                                I'll make a few changes with the signals I offer (in terms of forcing SL/TP, pricing, answering questions, etc. No changes will be made on the trading strategy.) Will conduct a survey before making any changes. Will update here if any changes are made.

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