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Consistent Alpha * Long Term Trading

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  • AlphaTrader
    replied
    Updates for August, September and October:
    August: +5.78
    September: +1.72%
    October: -3.79%

    October wasn't a good month for me as the market keep chopping around and mostly ranging, volume and volatility are lows due to the coming US election. Will keep monitoring the market but most likely won't enter any trades until the election results are out and after markets consumed the result.

    Usually it's a good time to invest in my strategy during drawdown periods. Traders that are thinking of adding a longer term strategy into their portfolio, this could be a good time. I've been adding into my account during drawdown periods in the past and it has served me quite well.

    Wish everyone good luck and safe trading through the US election.

    Leave a comment:


  • AlphaTrader
    replied
    Updates for June and July:
    June: +7.29% gains
    July: +6.71% gains

    After 3 flat months with a small 11.64% drawdown, we reverse all the losses in June and make a new equity high in July. I would like to thank those who continue to stay with me throughout the tough times and are making money along with me. Admittedly, it's hard to bear a 11.64% drawdown for most investors and most will eventually give up in the middle as we human loves to have steady monthly profits coming in every month. However the best time to invest is always during a drawdown period but it's hard for most to do so except the few who understand me and my strategy. (I pull in another 19K during the drawdown period can be viewed in my myfxbook)

    There's no changes with my strategy throughout the whole period and the prolonged losses is likely due to the low volatility before the BREXIT and the occasional diverge of my strategy and market. After BREXIT the volatility picked up significantly and we caught some nice trades.

    Despite all the chaos we see in the market, I'm grateful that we are still heading towards my target of 50%-60% annual return. We are now half way through the year and making 34.45% thus far. Hopefully we will sail through the second half of the year safely and reach my target at the end of the year. The next huge event, the election in US is likely to cause some bumps, I will keep myself alert with that and stick to my trading strategy and risk management.

    Wish everyone good luck and good trading.

    Leave a comment:


  • AlphaTrader
    replied
    Originally posted by Gunther View Post
    Hi Alpha,

    You wondering why the NZDUSD trade was closed for 5 pips, as i thought you usual keep the trades open and wait for SL or TP to be hit. Or did you you feel the trade conditions had changed hence closed it.

    Just interested in you approach for this trade.

    Thanks in advance.

    Gunther
    Hi Gunther,

    Looking back at my trade journal, I closed the NZD/USD trade because price rally back up into the entry price and the price structure on the weekly chart isn't convincing enough for me to hold on to the short position. The trade is based on double top formation on the daily chart but on the weekly chart, the trend seems to be reversing and could potentially form a fresh new trend. That's the reason I closed it out at BE but price did decline lower before it rally back up forming a new bullish trend.


    Originally posted by Anton123 View Post
    Hello!
    Are the trades still managed?
    We had lost almost all profits on two of three ongoing trades, by not trailing them...
    Hi Anton,

    Yes, all trades are managed on a daily basis. Although I'm very busy in the last 2 months, I am still able to manage them as usual because I'm trading off the Daily, Weekly and Monthly chart. It takes less than 30mins a day to manage them. I did trail the stop to BE but I gave more room to the price to move because price is consolidating and choppy at that time. It would be easily get chopped out if we trail the stop too close to the price. CHF/JPY trade is an example where trailing stop too soon could cause us to miss the profits. Price just take us out at BE and move on lower. It all comes down to the strategy I employ. Sometime the strategy we employ is in tune with the market while other times the strategy is out of sync with the market. All strategies and markets have their own cycles and we just need to ride them out.



    Sorry for the late reply, I was very busy in the last month. Can't even find time to sit down and switch on my computer but things are getting better now. Feel free to ask if you have any questions.

    Leave a comment:


  • Anton123
    replied
    Hello!
    Are the trades still managed?
    We had lost almost all profits on two of three ongoing trades, by not trailing them...

    Leave a comment:


  • Gunther
    replied
    Hi Alpha,

    You wondering why the NZDUSD trade was closed for 5 pips, as i thought you usual keep the trades open and wait for SL or TP to be hit. Or did you you feel the trade conditions had changed hence closed it.

    Just interested in you approach for this trade.

    Thanks in advance.

    Gunther

    Leave a comment:


  • AlphaTrader
    replied
    Originally posted by Anton123 View Post
    Well, 6th loss in a row, but it's another thing that bothers me:
    Did you have another master disconnection this night? Because you closed the GBPCAD sell with 33 pips loss, but I lost 57 pips. Closing times do not match: there are several hours of difference. Also, you myfxbook account (http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Croc...--2x-r/1360484) still not updated with this trade.
    It becomes impossible to correctly following your signal. If it continues, I'm afraid I'll have to leave...

    Hi Anton, I believe there's one disconnection at one of the account. Sorry for the late response as I was away in the last few days. We just had our 5th losses in a row, there's one breakeven trade in between and after 4 losing streak last month, we are down -0.96% for the month of April. I understand that you subscribed at the highest point of my equity curve and that does makes you feels uncomfortable but for me it really is just -0.96% of loss for last month and I used to not feeling any emotions with this kind of results. I would like to express a few thoughts over here.

    For 6 years, I've never counted pips in my profit and loss.
    For 6 years, I've never look at the numbers or wins and loss on any single trade.

    I only look at whether I followed my rules, and how much I made and loss in percentage over every quarter. That's what I see and concern about. I never get bothered with a 10 pips of slippage (10 pips of slippage is nothing when I'm risking hundreds of pips on one trade and my position size is small and some pairs pip value is lower than other), or if this coming trade is going to be a winner or loser. It's all about the percentage for me. Taking the recent losing streaks for example, after having 5 losses in a row, my drawdown isn't 10%, but 8% although I risk 2% on each trade and only down -0.96% for the month. That's the reason calculating based on pips and number or winners and losers is inaccurate for my strategy thus I've never used them for years.

    Among all the other stuff in trading, psychology and personality is the most talked about topic when we reach certain level in our trading. I believe there's some kind of chemistry in our mind and body that lead us to certain types of strategy. If I'm asked to scalp the market I would really going to lose my pants in no time. It's the same with high win rate trading strategy, I feel stressed out when I'm losing more than I earn in each trade although I've more winners than losers. For others, it might be the opposite, scalping, average down, grid and high win rate could be the bread and butter for some traders as they match their personality.

    Based on all the conversations we have, I believe you will do better with strategy that offers higher win rate and shorter trading time frame. It's always better to goes where our heart leads, if things doesn't suits us and holding us back, leave them behind and pursue things that moves us forward.


    I'll make a few changes with the signals I offer (in terms of forcing SL/TP, pricing, answering questions, etc. No changes will be made on the trading strategy.) Will conduct a survey before making any changes. Will update here if any changes are made.

    Leave a comment:


  • Anton123
    replied
    Well, 6th loss in a row, but it's another thing that bothers me:
    Did you have another master disconnection this night? Because you closed the GBPCAD sell with 33 pips loss, but I lost 57 pips. Closing times do not match: there are several hours of difference. Also, you myfxbook account (http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Croc...--2x-r/1360484) still not updated with this trade.
    It becomes impossible to correctly following your signal. If it continues, I'm afraid I'll have to leave...

    Leave a comment:


  • Anton123
    replied
    Thank you! I in fact had read about your signal and style of trading before I joined. I was attracted by Profit Factor, Risk-to-Reward ratio and Best Trade/Worst trade ratio.
    Two problems that I had were not linked to your signal directly, but to master's disconnection and brokers' SL-hunting.
    So I will deactivate copying the SL. I believe the master disconnection is far less probable than hitting the SL when master doesn't.
    By the way, have you moved your master to ST's server, to avoid disconnection, as ST suggested? Thanks.
    Hope GBPCAD sell will end in profit!

    Leave a comment:


  • AlphaTrader
    replied
    Originally posted by Anton123 View Post

    Thanks! So now you see why I suggest deactivating SL... I was very clearly stoploss-hunted on this trade (I am with AxiTrader). The high was at 9.2816, and I was closed at 9.2930.
    Of course, I will complain to the broker, but I haven't too much hope...
    So five losses in a row for me and the 6th trade seems going to the same fate.
    ​Hi Anton,

    You may deactivate it if you see it as a better option based on the experience you have and brokers you use but making a decision based on 1 or 2 trades is not a good thing to do in my opinion. I've encountered "stop-hunt" in the past and continue to experience it (I do not view it as stop hunting) every now and then, it might happen 2 or 3 times a year but I still have a stop in place every time I make a trade. Over the long term, the pros will outweight the cons (at least for swing traders like me).

    I'm sorry to hear that you're having five losses in a row but hopefully you will look pass it and things will turn around soon. FYI, May is still flat for us, April we are only down 0.96% and up +19.48% so far this year but I see quite a few copiers are getting nervous because they joined at my equity high.

    There're a few ways to overcome the heat in your portfolio and your mental hurdles, the first is to reduce the risks you are taking, I myself is comfortable with risking 1%-2% on every trade I take, try assess your risk tolerance before taking on higher risk multiplier. That's what I see as the main issue in most copiers. Next, try thinking in terms of % and R instead of numbers of losers and winners.

    The risk management I employ risk 2% on every trade, that being said, when I've losing streaks, I'll take on less and less risk in terms of dollar amount. For example, by risking 2% per trade, after 4 losses, that doesn't equal to 8% loss (If you risk 4% per trade, that doesn't mean you lose 16% after having 4 losers in a row). As the numbers of losers grow, the less impact it has on my account in terms of dollar and % in total. BTW, I do use trailing stops, so if you're just looking at the numbers of wins and loss (or making that number to have huge impact in your trading), you might not be looking at the whole picture.

    Besides, I've a brief introduction about my strategy, risk reward ratio and my win rate in the signal information in ST as well as in the first post of this tread. My win rate is 45%-50%. If one has 80% win rate, having 3 losers in a row is very normal for them and I've only 45%-50% win rate, you will need to get used to having more losers in a row. You may also have noticed that I only trade setups that offer more than 1:2 risk:reward. With that, it only takes 2 wins to offset 4 losses and might even end up in profits. It's the same with 6 losses, 2-3wins to offset 6 losses and end up in profits. If you're used to high win rate and low risk:reward strategies which has less than 1R or even less than 0.5R or maybe like some grid or martingale systems that don't even looks at risk:reward, this concept might be harder for you to grasp but hopefully it may help you.

    That's how I handle my emotions in trading throughout the last few years. Taking risk that I'm comfortable with, thinking in terms of quarterly results, looking at percentages & risk reward and have a longer term view. I hope these may help you in your trading.

    Leave a comment:


  • Anton123
    replied
    Originally posted by AlphaTrader View Post

    Hi Anton,

    No it's not yet closed. Two brokers that are linked to myfxbook didn't hit the SL level yet. It might due to your broker widen the spread during volatile period. Not sure why ST hasn't update the trade yet, there's no disconnection from my server.

    FYI, I'm using ICMarkets to offer signals.
    Thanks! So now you see why I suggest deactivating SL... I was very clearly stoploss-hunted on this trade (I am with AxiTrader). The high was at 9.2816, and I was closed at 9.2930.
    Of course, I will complain to the broker, but I haven't too much hope...
    So five losses in a row for me and the 6th trade seems going to the same fate.

    Leave a comment:


  • AlphaTrader
    replied
    The EUR/NOK trade has closed at BE now, should be reflected in ST and myfxbook soon.

    Leave a comment:


  • AlphaTrader
    replied
    Originally posted by Anton123 View Post
    Hello! Is the EURNOK sell closed on master by SL at 9.29, please? I do not see it as closed at myfxbook and it's not yet updated at forexsignals...
    Hi Anton,

    No it's not yet closed. Two brokers that are linked to myfxbook didn't hit the SL level yet. It might due to your broker widen the spread during volatile period. Not sure why ST hasn't update the trade yet, there's no disconnection from my server.

    FYI, I'm using ICMarkets to offer signals.

    Leave a comment:


  • Anton123
    replied
    Hello! Is the EURNOK sell closed on master by SL at 9.29, please? I do not see it as closed at myfxbook and it's not yet updated at forexsignals...

    Leave a comment:


  • AlphaTrader
    replied
    Originally posted by Gunther View Post
    I understand the RM and we could get another 4 losers or winners, hence the "hopefully" for 4 winners instead. Thanks for your prompt comment
    You're welcome Gunther, enjoy your weekend

    Leave a comment:


  • Gunther
    replied
    Originally posted by AlphaTrader View Post
    Hi Gunther,

    Keep in mind that there could be another 4 losing streaks coming. The probability will not simply turn into our favor just because we have a few losers in a row. Whether we've 2 losses in a row or 10 losses in a row, the probability of the next trade is still the same. Although I've wrote about risk management & drawdowns in the first post and in ST signal information page, I think some copiers still do not quite get it yet. I'll dedicate another post regarding these when I get some free time soon.


    Tony
    I understand the RM and we could get another 4 losers or winners, hence the "hopefully" for 4 winners instead. Thanks for your prompt comment

    Leave a comment:

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