Contraphant - Signal Discussion

[themarketbank]

Hi All ..

I am the owner of a signal on the forum called: Contraphant, which as at: 13:33 GMT on 25/11/2016 is ranked 10th in the Simple Trader market place.



https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...ntraphant.html

This is a scalping trading strategy, and as such I am realistic and mindful of the fact that successfully copying it will depend on the following:

• A broker with tight spread and low commission. I personally prefer ICMarkets, but there may be others.
• The speed at which the Simple Trader EA's can successfully open and close trades.
• Slippage on the broker's side.

On the positive side - most trades are taken during slow moving markets, and the average trade time is roughly around 20 minutes. This should give the copier enough time to complete the transaction even though the average SL/TP can be around the 2 pip mark.

I seem to have a few loyal copiers for who the signal is working fine, however, I am opening up this post to those who may want to voice their concerns around slippage experienced through certain brokers, and can perhaps assist other copiers in recommending brokers that work.

My own personal account settings when trading this strategy:

Broker: ICMarkets.
Leverage: 500:1
Account: True ECN

I would recommend using a rebate provider when signing up for an account to further reduce commission. I am not providing my own affiliate link here in the spirit of knowing you can get a better deal through other places.

Trades are often kept open over rollover, and so SWAP fees will also play an important role, however, these will sometimes be in your favor.

The current signal provided above stands at an 81% gain with a 6% drawdown (myfxbook), and 4% (simple-trader). The system is FIFO compliant and there will only ever be 1 trade open at a time.

The signal can be subscribed to at $50 per month and this comes with a 1 week free trial. I am hoping that the trial will give copiers enough time to assess whether the slippage and broker conditions when following this signal are worth it.

Once / If the signal reaches 100% account gain then I plan on increasing the price to $75 per month, but only if the drawdown is still respectable.

I am currently building up a track record for another account where the Risk is 1/2 of this account. It may be of interest in the future to those who are even more risk averse, however, it does not yet have a long enough track record to publish it here.

I hope this post is informative - and please also see the usual Risk Disclaimer below as I think it's important to understand.

Risk Disclaimer:

Although I consider Risk Management a top priority ...

• Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
• Copiers understand the risks involved with Forex Trading or Forex Trade Copying.
• This signal does not constitute investment advice.

[withnail]

Hi and thanks for posting. I am a current subscriber and am pleased with the signal performance so far. I have 2 queries:

a) I hope that the price increase will not affect existing subs, but please confirm;
b) I realise that trades are not normally(?) open over the weekend. However, I'm not sure if this is an absolute rule of the strategy? I am also slightly concerned that, even if it is, something could go wrong here and leave a trade open. Given the lot sizes used, this could be catastrophic with a weekend gap. Can you let us know what checks you have in place to prevent this?

Many thanks.

[oportunis]

If TP is only 2 pips and you already use IC markets, which is one of best brokers regarding quotes it will not work for most copiers. They will get slipped by 1-2 pips and this will end as break even at best, but from practice most will end with loss if you count commissions and swap. If you would have TP at 5 pips this might work. Why don't you reduce lot size and aim for few more pips, percentege wise it should be the same, same risk same profit, but better to copy.

[themarketbank]

Hi ..

I will take the questions in order:

withnail

(a) - I have never been a copier - but my understanding (as confirmed with Alex from Forex Signals today) is that existing subscribers will not be impacted by price increases - as long as they do not stop the subscription and re-subscribe. It may be worth just double checking this with Forex Signals.

(b) - Trades will never (ever) be held open over weekends. Trading stops many hours before most brokers close on a Friday. This is both my own policy but it is also built into the EA so I do not see this ever happening. You are quite right of course that should this happen then we won't get much sleep that weekend!

Thanks for being a subscriber and I'm glad that so far you are happy.

oportunis

My thoughts on your valid concerns:

(a) - I agree that IC markets are pretty good, however, I see similar results on Pepperstone as well as Global Prime and so it may well be that other brokers could work. I am by no means categorically saying that they will, which is part of the reason for this thread. Currently withnail seems satisfied, but he/she may or may not decide to disclose the broker in use.
(b) - Lowering the lot sizes and changing the TP to a larger value will in affect be a completely different strategy, This will require a lot of back testing, forward testing, and may or may not proven to be successful. It is a valid idea of course. Ultimately, I agree that there is a case to be made to try and come up with something that provides a better copy signal.
(c) - You need to also consider positive slippage. Over time I have managed to determine that my strategy has positive correlation as far as copiers are concerned. I must add that this was not on Simple Trader. This meant that over a large sample of data it showed that I entered my trades slightly early and I exited my trades slightly early also. This often resulted in copiers making more money than myself.

Thanks for the questions!

[withnail]

Thanks for the clarification!

Hi ..

I will take the questions in order:

withnail

(a) - I have never been a copier - but my understanding (as confirmed with Alex from Forex Signals today) is that existing subscribers will not be impacted by price increases - as long as they do not stop the subscription and re-subscribe. It may be worth just double checking this with Forex Signals.

(b) - Trades will never (ever) be held open over weekends. Trading stops many hours before most brokers close on a Friday. This is both my own policy but it is also built into the EA so I do not see this ever happening. You are quite right of course that should this happen then we won't get much sleep that weekend!

Thanks for being a subscriber and I'm glad that so far you are happy.

oportunis

My thoughts on your valid concerns:

(a) - I agree that IC markets are pretty good, however, I see similar results on Pepperstone as well as Global Prime and so it may well be that other brokers could work. I am by no means categorically saying that they will, which is part of the reason for this thread. Currently withnail seems satisfied, but he/she may or may not decide to disclose the broker in use.
(b) - Lowering the lot sizes and changing the TP to a larger value will in affect be a completely different strategy, This will require a lot of back testing, forward testing, and may or may not proven to be successful. It is a valid idea of course. Ultimately, I agree that there is a case to be made to try and come up with something that provides a better copy signal.
(c) - You need to also consider positive slippage. Over time I have managed to determine that my strategy has positive correlation as far as copiers are concerned. I must add that this was not on Simple Trader. This meant that over a large sample of data it showed that I entered my trades slightly early and I exited my trades slightly early also. This often resulted in copiers making more money than myself.

Thanks for the questions!

[withnail]

I'm not sure that's right. Is the probability of the price moving 2 pips the same as it is moving 5 pips? I don't think so. In any event, I would prefer the strategy not to be tweaked given that it appears to be profitable.

If TP is only 2 pips and you already use IC markets, which is one of best brokers regarding quotes it will not work for most copiers. They will get slipped by 1-2 pips and this will end as break even at best, but from practice most will end with loss if you count commissions and swap. If you would have TP at 5 pips this might work. Why don't you reduce lot size and aim for few more pips, percentege wise it should be the same, same risk same profit, but better to copy.

[oportunis]

I agree, strategy should not be changed if it works for trader and signal copiers. I was just expresing experience from many signals I have copied before. If they had broker with low spread and good quotes like IC markets, Tickmill etc. the result ended poorly for me. The best I got was BE but most of the time I got slipped and ended in loss, while master account ended in profit. And they all had biger TP than just 2 pips. Even if you used same broker the differenc was still there.

[themarketbank]

oportunis

Do you think your issue was related to perhaps faster moving markets? Maybe where trades were taken during the LDN or NY sessions?

Although I appreciate prices can move fast during any session - It is interesting to hear about your experience. I think latency is unfortunately an undeniable fact of copying services. So far I get a "sense" that most copiers are happy as most of them on Simple Trader seem to stick, apart from those who drop off when I have losing trades but I guess that is normal.

But again, I stress that I am happy for people to raise there slippage issues on this thread which is part of the reason why I created it.

[oportunis]

Yes the volatility could be the problem as most trade during London and NY sessions. If signal provider used brokers with low spreads and good quotes I got slipped on average about 2-3 pips or even missed trade if there was data release and spike. If they closed a trade at 3 pips I got BE or small loss, but if they closed at 5 pips or more than I ended in profit.

The best signal providers are those who use classic accounts with bigger spread, because for those I always got better fills and more pips.

[gbguimaraes]

I like very mutch this signal, but i try a week between 14/11/2016 and 17/11/2016

your results:

EUR USD 7 orders 5.2pips

mine with Tickmill:

EURUSD 7 orders 1.9pips

17 and 18 November i try with Thinkforex UK

you:

EURUSD 3 orders 8.2 pips

mine:

EURUSD 3 orders 7.8 pips

Was not so bad, but when you lost like 16/11/2016 your account close 9 mine 9.4 pips and with that kind of lots.
I think i will try again but again with lots so big any 0.1 pip is a lot.

[themarketbank]

thanks for the info gbguimaraes

I am hoping that some of this will also be offset by times where followers will make more pips than myself. I guess time will tell and feel free to keep the feedback going (good or bad).

As for the large lot sizes - I appreciate that this is not everybody's cup of tea. I have started a new 100:1 leverage account that uses 1/2 the lot sizes / 1/2 the risk - but this account will unfortunately not qualify to be listed as a signal yet - it will hopefully be ready in a few months time for followers who may want to wait for this instead.

[NextGen4FX]

If TP is only 2 pips and you already use IC markets, which is one of best brokers regarding quotes it will not work for most copiers. They will get slipped by 1-2 pips and this will end as break even at best, but from practice most will end with loss if you count commissions and swap. If you would have TP at 5 pips this might work. Why don't you reduce lot size and aim for few more pips, percentege wise it should be the same, same risk same profit, but better to copy.

You can actually make a script that will automatically cut any trade at +2 pips and disable the TP/SL through ST. Many ECNs do not support a small TP as you would get the error "Too Close To Market". Wish ST would make the copying of SL and TP separate options.

[themarketbank]

Hi all..

Just a courtesy message to let all my followers know that you should ensure you always have a SL/TP value for all trades when subscribing to Contraphant. These values are always set automatically at the time of placing the trades.

As I have a few copiers now I feel it's my responsibility to ensure that an issue that was highlighted by one user does not impact everybody.

The user in question showed me his account details and both the SL and TP values on his account were blank.

This may be an issue on the Simple Trader side, or it may be an issue on the copier side - I assume it cannot be an issue on my side but happy to be corrected. Either way a case has been raised with Victoria and Ace from ForexSignals who will investigate.

For reference - below are the SL/TP details of the last few trades from Contraphant:

I understand that the user has checked the required boxes that states he wants to copy the providers SL/TP.

If anyone has experienced this / know where this issue may originate form then please let us know.

stopandprofit.png

[NextGen4FX]

Hi all..

Just a courtesy message to let all my followers know that you should ensure you always have a SL/TP value for all trades when subscribing to Contraphant. These values are always set automatically at the time of placing the trades.

As I have a few copiers now I feel it's my responsibility to ensure that an issue that was highlighted by one user does not impact everybody.

The user in question showed me his account details and both the SL and TP values on his account were blank.

This may be an issue on the Simple Trader side, or it may be an issue on the copier side - I assume it cannot be an issue on my side but happy to be corrected. Either way a case has been raised with Victoria and Ace from ForexSignals who will investigate.

For reference - below are the SL/TP details of the last few trades from Contraphant:

I understand that the user has checked the required boxes that states he wants to copy the providers SL/TP.

If anyone has experienced this / know where this issue may originate form then please let us know.

stopandprofit.png

Makes perfect sense. I like the fact you risk the 5% and if hit you are done for the day. Shows control and discipline. Does this strategy require an ECN or can you use variable spreads?

[themarketbank]

Hi NextGen4FX

Thank you for the comments. The strategy requires very tight spreads. I personally use an ECN broker (which is of course variable spread as well, but just tight). Spreads really should be below 1 pip for most part if possible.