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  • ARION by Odysseia Capital, trading news

    this is new thread created after some members pointed out to our attention that we should concentrate all trading news in just one thread. All trading announcements, wrap-ups and alike will be posted under this topic from now on.

    The week closed with a slight positive return of 0.4%, with some last minute pips taken away by last night's protests in Washington DC after the inauguration speech, as we had 2 long USD positions opened. Prices reversed somewhat with the broadcast images of a couple of guys burning trash bins...go figure. Overall this month, with 4% we are still above our target of 2% average monthly return.

    These coming days we will be reassessing the traded pairs and sub-strategies (regular reassessment we make, seeking statistical edge continuity) and it's likely that we come to announce some slight changes. That's also one of the reasons why we have not yet moved to normal trading after Theresa May's Brexit speech, as GBPUSD trading is showing to be going through a harder period.

    Haven't you subscribed ARION yet ? Take advantage of our launching offer of 50% OFF for the first month and enjoy a trading signal with long longevity, regular good returns and conservative risk management (offer only available at simpletrader.net and connectforex.com)

    https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

    Stay tuned and have a nice weekend.
    Last edited by Odysseia Capital; 01-21-2017, 01:44 PM.

  • #2
    Approaching the end of the month and facing the expectation of today's Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, we update a couple of topics:

    1 - BoJ announcements have been both benign and malign for ARION in the past. For instance in September the lack of credibility of the BoJ governor's speech and the JPY whipsaw price movements led to the 2nd worst drawdown period in ARION's history. But there has been also many neutral and/or benign events to ARION around the BoJ announcement This is even more important when USDJPY is a core instrument traded by ARION. All things considered, we decided to keep business as usual and we hope BoJ will be, one more time, benign to ARION. If not, and if BoJ surprises against the opened positions or, worse, announces a non-credible monetary policy change, that makes JPY prices jump around, we know our journey is made of ups and downs, and we will have to be exposed to the downs to get the more interesting ups.

    2 - The "worst" market day so far in 2017 took a toll in what was being so far a quite competent month. The monthly return is, at this moment, still interesting and above our long term target but, of course, nobody likes to give pips away. The 3 independent strategies that contribute to diversify ARION, united all together this Monday and all took away precious pips from the accumulated stock, which is annoying being so end to the month, but that's just how markets work. The 3 strategies work to diversify ARION ion but even so, there are times where all of them work in the same (negative) direction and even taking the same view in the same currency pairs, it's normal.

    https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

    Comment


    • #3
      Great comeback this week with 480 pips packed in our ARION account. This was enough to almost cancel the pending loss of this month. This coming week is calmer in terms of economic events, but letīs see that it brings to close the month.

      To perform well ARION needs days with increased volatility, so generally itīs not good idea to switch off the signal by customerīs own discretion on foreseeably less than extreme events. This week it was clearly FEDīs interest rate decision packed together with Janet Yellen's press conference.

      We are introducing some changes in the strategy that will be announced very, very soon. Stay tuned.

      You can subscribe ARION at simpletrader.net or connectforex.com for 50% off, in the first subscription month.

      https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html
      Last edited by Odysseia Capital; 03-19-2017, 12:28 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        We have been a bit silent lately. In fact we have been working hard to identify areas of improvement in our ARION strategy.

        We have suspended some strategies that are not performing and added others that have been showing good results lately:

        - We suspended trading in GBPJPY pair.

        - We added a strategy trading in AUDJPY.

        - We added a second strategy trading in EURJPY.

        - During this week will plan to a strategy trading on Gold. If you wish to enjoy these trades, please be sure that you have the correct mapping for this currency. The trades will be generated under the XAUUSD ticker.

        - Because we are introducing extra diversification and because we think the strategy can in fact withstand higher market exposure, we will be increasing the size of our positions soon, in the range of 5%-15%, depending on the pair and strategy. Please, if you are using increased exposure in relation to our normal position sizing, take this into account. Naturally if a adverse period follows, it will result in a higher drawdown, but still we estimate, still, very far away from our targeted maximum historical drawdown.

        Happy trading!

        https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

        Comment


        • #5
          hello odysseia.

          In my opinion, your growth curve looks "healthy".
          Like I think about the Asta Light signal (which I am a follower of), i also think that your profit factor is a bit on the low side. that being said, it seems like a sensible set of strategies and I will keep yours on my list of systems I watch.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Hansen View Post
            hello odysseia.

            In my opinion, your growth curve looks "healthy".
            Like I think about the Asta Light signal (which I am a follower of), i also think that your profit factor is a bit on the low side. that being said, it seems like a sensible set of strategies and I will keep yours on my list of systems I watch.
            Hello Hansen,

            Thanks for engaging with Odysseia Capital regarding our ARION signal and thanks for your comments.

            We totally agree with you about profit factor. In our view that's the result of a couple of factors:

            1- We give time for strategies to prove themselves wrong. That means that we can have a strategy in the portfolio that has been working ok and when it starts not performing well we donīt remove it right away, instead we give a bit of time to prove itself wrong. This way for a period of time the strategy will be dragging the profit factor down, but because of our highly diversified portfolio, the chances of this approach to result in serious negative impact are of course smaller.

            2- ARION needs definitely good volatile days to perform better. Volatility has been low for long periods in the past 8 to 9 months or so. This means trades are taken, but profits are not as solid as in more volatile days, thus resulting in lower profit factors contributions.

            3- Lastly, in this general low volatility environment the related JPY pairs have been showing to perform better. However due to our conservative risk management controls, we we don't increase the exposure (too much) in currently better performing strategies or pairs, as we consider such stance would be not compatible with the risk targets we aim ARION to represent.

            Anyway and overall, we agree with you, we are aware of the limitations (and the benefits resulting from those limitations) and we are working to improve the profit factor of the strategy as well as other performance indicators.

            Just a note about subscribing. We always motivate our prospective customers to enroll in the signal when performance is not at its high. The statistics tell us that the signal will predictably evolve in ups and downs, but with an increasing equity tendency. The best time to enter isn't normally when the signal is at its highs, but when equity is evolving sideways or even going into drawdown. Usually we see a surge of customers at periods when the strategy is peaking. We are perfectly aware this is much easier said than done psychologically, and for us is much easier to enroll customers around these periods, but history has shown us otherwise!

            Do contact us if you feel you need some extra clarification and again thanks for engaging with Odysseia Capital.

            Happy trading!

            https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

            Comment


            • #7
              We have just published our March 2017 ARION wrap-up. Visit our blog post to learn why this might be an optimal time to subscribe the service.

              https://odysseiacapital.com/march2017/


              https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

              Comment


              • #8
                French Election - We got the markets wrong

                As usually, we made the internal assessment of the this weekend's French elections. Following these latest weeks information paraphernalia we have concluded the most likely outcome would be that both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen would make the cut to get to the second round, as it came to happen. Contrary to some other voting recent events, we assessed that there wasn't much room to any other outcome which didn't include Emmanuel Macron in the final two runner-ups. This would be seen as market and Euro friendly.

                We should be happy with the fact that we have consistently got the outcome of the latest binary events right. But we estimated wrongly the pricing the market had placed in other possible outcomes, namely the possibility that the second round would be decided between two anti-European protagonists. It's clear now that, after the surprises of Brexit referendum and Trump election, the market is heavily pricing outcomes outside the consensus.

                At the close of Friday's session, our ARION strategy had two opened positions: A short EURCHF and a Long on XAUUSD (Gold). To put it simply, our assessment was:

                a) if the result of the elections would come out to follow the consensus (Emmanuel Macron included in the final two runner-ups) no large movements would be seen as there would be no relief rally (outcome = consensus would mean business as usual and therefore no large market movements).

                b) in the unlikely chance of an unexpected market unfriendly outcome, the market would, in our view, fly to safety assets such as Gold or to CHF, placing our trades in profit.

                Clearly it was an error was to assume the market was mainly pricing consensus and not highly unlikely scenarios. The relief rally seen upon the election results, both with a strong appreciation of the EUR and a almost alike depreciation of Gold, showed us that after all market was strongly pricing a surprising outcome, which is in itself a strong paradox.

                Whatever were the merits of our assessment, the important point was that we got the markets wrong this time and saw some negative trades with relevance due to the gaps verified at market open. As well as we point it out when we get it right, we do acknowledge when we get it wrong. We got it wrong this time and we are therefore sorry for the profits the strategy gave back due to this misread of the situation.

                The positive point is that ARION is a highly diversified strategy and the impact was after all of limited dimension and not dramatically hard to be recovered. We took however our learnings from this event and know now that consensus now can mean surprise.

                As always we are working hard to return to regular monthly profits soon.

                Have a happy week ahead.
                Last edited by Odysseia Capital; 04-24-2017, 11:32 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Just a quick note on GOLD trading.

                  As most of our clients know Odysseia Capital is one of the few signal providers out there who submits the signal to the test of several different brokerage environments. We have just opened a new account at FXCM and noticed that the Gold sizing at this broker is "micronized". This means that the minimum position size is 1.0 lot, corresponding to the "normal" 0.01 lot at, say, Activtrades or FxPro.

                  Our master account is trading Gold at the moment at positions of 0.04. At FXCM a minimum 1.0 size position will be opened, corresponding to a position of 0.01 at our master account.

                  If you are trading at FXCM you should multiply the position sizing at this pair by a scale of 100.

                  We take the opportunity to alert also that some brokers (for instance LMAX) have a real 0.1 lot as minimum position Gold size, which can substantially skew results and submit the account to a higher risk and exposure to the Gold strategy as compared with the ARION master account.

                  https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Just a little note on the coming 2nd round of the French Elections, following our note about the 1st round.

                    Odysseia Capital will close down all the open positions at our running strategies ARION and ZEPHIR, before the markets close on Friday.

                    If we would have to put money on this bet we would say Mr. Emmanuel Macron has a better chance to win the presidency.

                    However there are unaccounted factors such as the 20% of undecided voters, the lack of definition of the French Communist Party and the possible high abstention (which would definitely hurt Mr. Macron side much more, since heīs seen as the lesser evil) that can still lead this result to unforeseen outcomes.

                    The difference shown in polls of 20% between the contenders is also not at all a sign of relief, as this difference represents in fact 10% - each 1% of the voters who change sides, will result in a close of the gap by 2% (1% less in Macronīs side and 1% more in Le Pen side).

                    All in all a Le Pen election is a scenario in our view quite possible. On such event we would observe huge volatility and gigantic price gaps when the markets open again no Monday, exposing the strategy to significant risk.

                    We will therefore close all open positions on Friday evening.

                    Have a nice weekend!

                    Just a little note on the coming 2nd round of the French Elections, following our note about the 1st round.

                    Odysseia Capital will close down all the open positions at our running strategies ARION and ZEPHIR, before the markets close on Friday.

                    If we would have to put money on this bet we would say Mr. Emmanuel Macron has a better chance to win the presidency.

                    However there are unaccounted factors such as the 20% of undecided voters, the lack of definition of the French Communist Party and the possible high abstention (which would definitely hurt Mr. Macron side much more, since heīs seen as the lesser evil) that can still lead this result to unforeseen outcomes.

                    The difference shown in polls of 20% between the contenders is also not at all a sign of relief, as this difference represents in fact 10% - each 1% of the voters who change sides, will result in a close of the gap by 2% (1% less in Macronīs side and 1% more in Le Pen side).

                    All in all a Le Pen election is a scenario in our view quite possible. On such event we would observe huge volatility and gigantic price gaps when the markets open again no Monday, exposing the strategy to significant risk.

                    https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Hi there guys,

                      just checking how things are. Looks like we are heading into a third negative month in a row. Something that has never occured before as far as i can see from your website results (which havent been updated from March, by the way). Plans, comments?

                      Cheers.

                      Ales

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Hi ales,

                        Thanks a lot for engaging.

                        True, which is mainly due to two factors.

                        1) Low volatility as per described in our April update, concerning the month of March (please see it here: https://odysseiacapital.com/march2017/). We never had also such a long run of very low VIX readings.

                        2) Unfortunately we ran into some problems with our VPS provider where this account is running. These problems are now overcome but they happened exactly at the same time of the best part of the month and some of the best trades were simply missed (Murphyīs law has done it again...).

                        For a clearer picture of what really happened with the strategy in this month you can visit the other accounts running the same exact strategy, for instance this one: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ody...trades/1899812. Unfortunately our show case account which is the one with largest historic span, was running exactly in the server that had the problems.

                        Finally if we look to the monthly performance of the accounts which executed all the trades, we can only conclude our thesis described in our April update mentioned in 1) is most likely correct. As soon as volatility piked a bit up (VIX had a spike around the 17th of March) the accounts which were outside the VPS with problems had a nice runnups and are most of them positive or hovering around 0%. Since the VIX came down back again to very low levels (it sits now in under 10), results in the last part of the month of May have been also rather "flattish".

                        Overall our perspective is very positive, taking into account that the markets are in our view accumulating tensions and soon (when exactly we don't know) there will be something giving up and moving the VIX higher. If markets continue in this numbness and VIX stays low, we are heading for more months with low negative/positive returns.

                        Take care and please engage with us again if you have any other question or comment.
                        Odysseia Capital
                        Last edited by Odysseia Capital; 05-26-2017, 09:38 AM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Cheers man. Fingers crossed. Lets see how the next month would go. Quite frankly, need it to be a positive one now ...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            AT least the signal provider likes to talk =)

                            He sounds like someone in donna forum.
                            http://www.myfxbook.com/members/SPLANDFX/pamm-system-1-first-class/2020313
                            http://www.myfxbook.com/members/SPLANDFX/pamm-system-2-direct-system/2020333


                            email me at splandfx@gmail.com to sign up for PAMM

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Spland FX View Post
                              AT least the signal provider likes to talk =)

                              He sounds like someone in donna forum.
                              Hi Spland FX,

                              Thanks for engaging.

                              We have known Donna since really many, many years ago and in deed sometimes we still engage privately with her to exchange some views and ideas. She was a pioneer when most of market retail participants were still learning the first steps in Forex world.

                              It's not out of our plans to have an active part in DonnaForex Forum and when we do it, it will surely be under the Odysseia Capital brand. For time being we can assure you we that don't post in that space, so if we sound like someone there, that is the work (as they say in the movies ) of mere coincidence.

                              Cheers!
                              Odysseia Capital

                              https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html
                              Last edited by Odysseia Capital; 06-08-2017, 08:45 PM.

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