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  • ARION by Odysseia Capital, trading news

    this is new thread created after some members pointed out to our attention that we should concentrate all trading news in just one thread. All trading announcements, wrap-ups and alike will be posted under this topic from now on.

    The week closed with a slight positive return of 0.4%, with some last minute pips taken away by last night's protests in Washington DC after the inauguration speech, as we had 2 long USD positions opened. Prices reversed somewhat with the broadcast images of a couple of guys burning trash bins...go figure. Overall this month, with 4% we are still above our target of 2% average monthly return.

    These coming days we will be reassessing the traded pairs and sub-strategies (regular reassessment we make, seeking statistical edge continuity) and it's likely that we come to announce some slight changes. That's also one of the reasons why we have not yet moved to normal trading after Theresa May's Brexit speech, as GBPUSD trading is showing to be going through a harder period.

    Haven't you subscribed ARION yet ? Take advantage of our launching offer of 50% OFF for the first month and enjoy a trading signal with long longevity, regular good returns and conservative risk management (offer only available at simpletrader.net and connectforex.com)

    https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

    Stay tuned and have a nice weekend.
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    Last edited by Odysseia Capital; 01-21-2017, 01:44 PM.

  • #2
    Approaching the end of the month and facing the expectation of today's Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, we update a couple of topics:

    1 - BoJ announcements have been both benign and malign for ARION in the past. For instance in September the lack of credibility of the BoJ governor's speech and the JPY whipsaw price movements led to the 2nd worst drawdown period in ARION's history. But there has been also many neutral and/or benign events to ARION around the BoJ announcement This is even more important when USDJPY is a core instrument traded by ARION. All things considered, we decided to keep business as usual and we hope BoJ will be, one more time, benign to ARION. If not, and if BoJ surprises against the opened positions or, worse, announces a non-credible monetary policy change, that makes JPY prices jump around, we know our journey is made of ups and downs, and we will have to be exposed to the downs to get the more interesting ups.

    2 - The "worst" market day so far in 2017 took a toll in what was being so far a quite competent month. The monthly return is, at this moment, still interesting and above our long term target but, of course, nobody likes to give pips away. The 3 independent strategies that contribute to diversify ARION, united all together this Monday and all took away precious pips from the accumulated stock, which is annoying being so end to the month, but that's just how markets work. The 3 strategies work to diversify ARION ion but even so, there are times where all of them work in the same (negative) direction and even taking the same view in the same currency pairs, it's normal.

    https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html
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    • #3
      https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html
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      Last edited by Odysseia Capital; 03-19-2017, 12:28 PM.

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      • #4
        We have been a bit silent lately. In fact we have been working hard to identify areas of improvement in our ARION strategy.

        We have suspended some strategies that are not performing and added others that have been showing good results lately:

        - We suspended trading in GBPJPY pair.

        - We added a strategy trading in AUDJPY.

        - We added a second strategy trading in EURJPY.

        - During this week will plan to a strategy trading on Gold. If you wish to enjoy these trades, please be sure that you have the correct mapping for this currency. The trades will be generated under the XAUUSD ticker.

        - Because we are introducing extra diversification and because we think the strategy can in fact withstand higher market exposure, we will be increasing the size of our positions soon, in the range of 5%-15%, depending on the pair and strategy. Please, if you are using increased exposure in relation to our normal position sizing, take this into account. Naturally if a adverse period follows, it will result in a higher drawdown, but still we estimate, still, very far away from our targeted maximum historical drawdown.

        Happy trading!

        https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html
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        • #5
          hello odysseia.

          In my opinion, your growth curve looks "healthy".
          Like I think about the Asta Light signal (which I am a follower of), i also think that your profit factor is a bit on the low side. that being said, it seems like a sensible set of strategies and I will keep yours on my list of systems I watch.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Hansen View Post
            hello odysseia.

            In my opinion, your growth curve looks "healthy".
            Like I think about the Asta Light signal (which I am a follower of), i also think that your profit factor is a bit on the low side. that being said, it seems like a sensible set of strategies and I will keep yours on my list of systems I watch.
            https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html
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            • #7
              We have just published our March 2017 ARION wrap-up. Visit our blog post to learn why this might be an optimal time to subscribe the service.

              https://odysseiacapital.com/march2017/


              https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html
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              • #8
                French Election - We got the markets wrong

                As usually, we made the internal assessment of the this weekend's French elections. Following these latest weeks information paraphernalia we have concluded the most likely outcome would be that both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen would make the cut to get to the second round, as it came to happen. Contrary to some other voting recent events, we assessed that there wasn't much room to any other outcome which didn't include Emmanuel Macron in the final two runner-ups. This would be seen as market and Euro friendly.

                We should be happy with the fact that we have consistently got the outcome of the latest binary events right. But we estimated wrongly the pricing the market had placed in other possible outcomes, namely the possibility that the second round would be decided between two anti-European protagonists. It's clear now that, after the surprises of Brexit referendum and Trump election, the market is heavily pricing outcomes outside the consensus.

                At the close of Friday's session, our ARION strategy had two opened positions: A short EURCHF and a Long on XAUUSD (Gold). To put it simply, our assessment was:

                a) if the result of the elections would come out to follow the consensus (Emmanuel Macron included in the final two runner-ups) no large movements would be seen as there would be no relief rally (outcome = consensus would mean business as usual and therefore no large market movements).

                b) in the unlikely chance of an unexpected market unfriendly outcome, the market would, in our view, fly to safety assets such as Gold or to CHF, placing our trades in profit.

                Clearly it was an error was to assume the market was mainly pricing consensus and not highly unlikely scenarios. The relief rally seen upon the election results, both with a strong appreciation of the EUR and a almost alike depreciation of Gold, showed us that after all market was strongly pricing a surprising outcome, which is in itself a strong paradox.

                Whatever were the merits of our assessment, the important point was that we got the markets wrong this time and saw some negative trades with relevance due to the gaps verified at market open. As well as we point it out when we get it right, we do acknowledge when we get it wrong. We got it wrong this time and we are therefore sorry for the profits the strategy gave back due to this misread of the situation.

                The positive point is that ARION is a highly diversified strategy and the impact was after all of limited dimension and not dramatically hard to be recovered. We took however our learnings from this event and know now that consensus now can mean surprise.

                As always we are working hard to return to regular monthly profits soon.

                Have a happy week ahead.
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                Last edited by Odysseia Capital; 04-24-2017, 11:32 PM.

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                • #9
                  Just a quick note on GOLD trading.

                  As most of our clients know Odysseia Capital is one of the few signal providers out there who submits the signal to the test of several different brokerage environments. We have just opened a new account at FXCM and noticed that the Gold sizing at this broker is "micronized". This means that the minimum position size is 1.0 lot, corresponding to the "normal" 0.01 lot at, say, Activtrades or FxPro.

                  Our master account is trading Gold at the moment at positions of 0.04. At FXCM a minimum 1.0 size position will be opened, corresponding to a position of 0.01 at our master account.

                  If you are trading at FXCM you should multiply the position sizing at this pair by a scale of 100.

                  We take the opportunity to alert also that some brokers (for instance LMAX) have a real 0.1 lot as minimum position Gold size, which can substantially skew results and submit the account to a higher risk and exposure to the Gold strategy as compared with the ARION master account.

                  https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

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                  • #10
                    https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

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                    • #11
                      Hi there guys,

                      just checking how things are. Looks like we are heading into a third negative month in a row. Something that has never occured before as far as i can see from your website results (which havent been updated from March, by the way). Plans, comments?

                      Cheers.

                      Ales

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                      • #12
                        Hi ales,

                        Thanks a lot for engaging.

                        True, which is mainly due to two factors.

                        1) Low volatility as per described in our April update, concerning the month of March (please see it here: https://odysseiacapital.com/march2017/https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ody...trades/1899812. Unfortunately our show case account which is the one with largest historic span, was running exactly in the server that had the problems.

                        Finally if we look to the monthly performance of the accounts which executed all the trades, we can only conclude our thesis described in our April update mentioned in 1) is most likely correct. As soon as volatility piked a bit up (VIX had a spike around the 17th of March) the accounts which were outside the VPS with problems had a nice runnups and are most of them positive or hovering around 0%. Since the VIX came down back again to very low levels (it sits now in under 10), results in the last part of the month of May have been also rather "flattish".

                        Overall our perspective is very positive, taking into account that the markets are in our view accumulating tensions and soon (when exactly we don't know) there will be something giving up and moving the VIX higher. If markets continue in this numbness and VIX stays low, we are heading for more months with low negative/positive returns.

                        Take care and please engage with us again if you have any other question or comment.
                        Odysseia Capital
                        Last edited by Odysseia Capital; 05-26-2017, 09:38 AM.

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                        • #13
                          Cheers man. Fingers crossed. Lets see how the next month would go. Quite frankly, need it to be a positive one now ...

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                          • #14
                            AT least the signal provider likes to talk =)

                            He sounds like someone in donna forum.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Spland FX View Post
                              AT least the signal provider likes to talk =)

                              He sounds like someone in donna forum.
                              Hi Spland FX,

                              Thanks for engaging.

                              We have known Donna since really many, many years ago and in deed sometimes we still engage privately with her to exchange some views and ideas. She was a pioneer when most of market retail participants were still learning the first steps in Forex world.

                              It's not out of our plans to have an active part in DonnaForex Forum and when we do it, it will surely be under the Odysseia Capital brand. For time being we can assure you we that don't post in that space, so if we sound like someone there, that is the work (as they say in the movies ) of mere coincidence.

                              Cheers!
                              Odysseia Capital

                              https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html
                              Last edited by Odysseia Capital; 06-08-2017, 08:45 PM.

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