ARION by Odysseia Capital, trading news

[Odysseia Capital]

BROKER CHALLENGE - 13 months and 2.000 closed trades later...

The first stage of our broker challenge initiated in September 2016 is finished. You can read the interesting results in our blog entry through the link below...because Brokers do matter:

https://odysseiacapital.com/broker-c...-trades-later/


We are present also in simpletrader.net:
https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

[Odysseia Capital]

https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/7166/Arion-by-Odysseia-Capital.html

[Odysseia Capital]

Arion new subscriptions will be temporarily suspended after the 1st of September.

More information here:

https://odysseiacapital.com/2761-2/

[Odysseia Capital]

Our June ARION wrap-up is available here:

https://odysseiacapital.com/2742-2/

Interesting conclusions in this post in our view about ARION and brokers performance.

[Odysseia Capital]

We've published our ARION May wrap-up, which can be accessed here:

https://odysseiacapital.com/may-2017-arion-wrap-up-another-low-volatility-month/

[Odysseia Capital]

AT least the signal provider likes to talk =)

He sounds like someone in donna forum.

Hi Spland FX,

Thanks for engaging.

We have known Donna since really many, many years ago and in deed sometimes we still engage privately with her to exchange some views and ideas. She was a pioneer when most of market retail participants were still learning the first steps in Forex world.

It's not out of our plans to have an active part in DonnaForex Forum and when we do it, it will surely be under the Odysseia Capital brand. For time being we can assure you we that don't post in that space, so if we sound like someone there, that is the work (as they say in the movies ) of mere coincidence.

Cheers!
Odysseia Capital

https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

[Spland FX]

AT least the signal provider likes to talk =)

He sounds like someone in donna forum.

[ales]

Cheers man. Fingers crossed. Lets see how the next month would go. Quite frankly, need it to be a positive one now ...

[Odysseia Capital]

Hi ales,

Thanks a lot for engaging.

True, which is mainly due to two factors.

1) Low volatility as per described in our April update, concerning the month of March (please see it here: https://odysseiacapital.com/march2017/https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ody...trades/1899812. Unfortunately our show case account which is the one with largest historic span, was running exactly in the server that had the problems.

Finally if we look to the monthly performance of the accounts which executed all the trades, we can only conclude our thesis described in our April update mentioned in 1) is most likely correct. As soon as volatility piked a bit up (VIX had a spike around the 17th of March) the accounts which were outside the VPS with problems had a nice runnups and are most of them positive or hovering around 0%. Since the VIX came down back again to very low levels (it sits now in under 10), results in the last part of the month of May have been also rather "flattish".

Overall our perspective is very positive, taking into account that the markets are in our view accumulating tensions and soon (when exactly we don't know) there will be something giving up and moving the VIX higher. If markets continue in this numbness and VIX stays low, we are heading for more months with low negative/positive returns.

Take care and please engage with us again if you have any other question or comment.
Odysseia Capital

[ales]

Hi there guys,

just checking how things are. Looks like we are heading into a third negative month in a row. Something that has never occured before as far as i can see from your website results (which havent been updated from March, by the way). Plans, comments?

Cheers.

Ales

[Odysseia Capital]

https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/7166/Arion-by-Odysseia-Capital.html

[Odysseia Capital]

Just a quick note on GOLD trading.

As most of our clients know Odysseia Capital is one of the few signal providers out there who submits the signal to the test of several different brokerage environments. We have just opened a new account at FXCM and noticed that the Gold sizing at this broker is "micronized". This means that the minimum position size is 1.0 lot, corresponding to the "normal" 0.01 lot at, say, Activtrades or FxPro.

Our master account is trading Gold at the moment at positions of 0.04. At FXCM a minimum 1.0 size position will be opened, corresponding to a position of 0.01 at our master account.

If you are trading at FXCM you should multiply the position sizing at this pair by a scale of 100.

We take the opportunity to alert also that some brokers (for instance LMAX) have a real 0.1 lot as minimum position Gold size, which can substantially skew results and submit the account to a higher risk and exposure to the Gold strategy as compared with the ARION master account.

https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html

[Odysseia Capital]

French Election - We got the markets wrong

As usually, we made the internal assessment of the this weekend's French elections. Following these latest weeks information paraphernalia we have concluded the most likely outcome would be that both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen would make the cut to get to the second round, as it came to happen. Contrary to some other voting recent events, we assessed that there wasn't much room to any other outcome which didn't include Emmanuel Macron in the final two runner-ups. This would be seen as market and Euro friendly.

We should be happy with the fact that we have consistently got the outcome of the latest binary events right. But we estimated wrongly the pricing the market had placed in other possible outcomes, namely the possibility that the second round would be decided between two anti-European protagonists. It's clear now that, after the surprises of Brexit referendum and Trump election, the market is heavily pricing outcomes outside the consensus.

At the close of Friday's session, our ARION strategy had two opened positions: A short EURCHF and a Long on XAUUSD (Gold). To put it simply, our assessment was:

a) if the result of the elections would come out to follow the consensus (Emmanuel Macron included in the final two runner-ups) no large movements would be seen as there would be no relief rally (outcome = consensus would mean business as usual and therefore no large market movements).

b) in the unlikely chance of an unexpected market unfriendly outcome, the market would, in our view, fly to safety assets such as Gold or to CHF, placing our trades in profit.

Clearly it was an error was to assume the market was mainly pricing consensus and not highly unlikely scenarios. The relief rally seen upon the election results, both with a strong appreciation of the EUR and a almost alike depreciation of Gold, showed us that after all market was strongly pricing a surprising outcome, which is in itself a strong paradox.

Whatever were the merits of our assessment, the important point was that we got the markets wrong this time and saw some negative trades with relevance due to the gaps verified at market open. As well as we point it out when we get it right, we do acknowledge when we get it wrong. We got it wrong this time and we are therefore sorry for the profits the strategy gave back due to this misread of the situation.

The positive point is that ARION is a highly diversified strategy and the impact was after all of limited dimension and not dramatically hard to be recovered. We took however our learnings from this event and know now that consensus now can mean surprise.

As always we are working hard to return to regular monthly profits soon.

Have a happy week ahead.

[Odysseia Capital]

We have just published our March 2017 ARION wrap-up. Visit our blog post to learn why this might be an optimal time to subscribe the service.

https://odysseiacapital.com/march2017/

https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/7166/Arion-by-Odysseia-Capital.html

[Odysseia Capital]

hello odysseia.

In my opinion, your growth curve looks "healthy".
Like I think about the Asta Light signal (which I am a follower of), i also think that your profit factor is a bit on the low side. that being said, it seems like a sensible set of strategies and I will keep yours on my list of systems I watch.

https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...a-Capital.html