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SFE Price Action Autolot High Risk

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  • It's because in absolute numbers you have more available every month. But of course, it's not as straight forward because the average gets skewed by a few months where you got 50% return.
    You have three months where you got crazy returns, August 2016, December 2016 and July 2017.
    Without those three your yearly return drops to 109% (15 months - 3 gives exactly twelve incl. August). You would "only" have 65,287.29. However, you would still have half a million by August 2019 if you didn't withdraw. I shouldn't just remove those three months though. Instead I should mmake them more in line with the other results which are around 20-30%. You also had very low return the first two months so if we even those out as well, we can expect something like the ~180% after one year so about 9% per month on average.

    I think that is a better representation of the possible lowest and highest results and which are in line with the result that is being advertised (~180%). If we take the more realistic number of 109% I would have just shy of 100K, 91,487.64 to be exact, by end of 2019.
    If we take the 180% number that is mentioned on the Simpletrader signal information tab, I will have 612,607.41 after three years. It's probably going to be somewhere in the middle of the earlier mentioned low and high number.

    I think a safe assumption for 4K after three years (so my situation) AND if the EA keeps performing for so "long" is something like 352,047.52 in my currency (EUR).

    IF that isn't a holy grail I don't what is. As such, the question becomes, is it possible? Will it fail? Most likely given past results of thousands of other EA's but why? Is it possible to keep evolving and make it so that we can keep the 9% per month?
    Last edited by reaper_unique; 08-13-2017, 01:53 PM.

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    • Originally posted by reaper_unique View Post
      It's because in absolute numbers you have more available every month. But of course it's not as straight forward because the average gets skewed by a few months where you got 50% return. You had three months where you got crazy returns, August 2016, December 2016 and July 2017.
      Without those three your yearly return drops to 109% (15 months - 3 gives exactly twelve incl. August). You would "only" have 65,287.29. However, you would still have half a million by August 2019 if you didn't withdraw.

      I think that is a better representation of the possible results and which is inline with the result that is being advertised (~180%). If we take the more realistic number of 109% I would have just shy of 100K by end of 2019. Funnily enough, that is close to what you said . If we take the 180% number I will have 612,607.41. It's probably going to be somewhere in the middle since I shouldn't just remove those three months but instead make them more inline with the other results which are around 20-30%. You also had very low return the first two months, if we even those out as well, we can expect something like the 150-180%.
      Thanks for the maths lesson!

      The calculator says if I have a capital of $100K with an annual interest rate of 200%, and compound monthly, my account will be $25,708,955.15 in 3 years!! (if I don't withdraw)

      This really sounds crazy but I hope the maths is true!!

      Now you really make me look forward to see what my account balance will be in the next few years!!

      Comment


      • I just edited my comment a bit more with the important remark at the end:

        IF that isn't a holy grail I don't what is. As such, the question becomes, is it possible? Will it fail? Most likely given past results of thousands of other EA's but why? Is it possible to keep evolving and make it so that we can keep the 9% per month?
        Nick Maybe you can shine some light on why something that has been working for about a year now, will most likely fail in a year or three like so many others? I don't want to be a party pooper but we must be realistic. There is a good example right on this site, GoldStar, after all.

        P.S.: My earlier remark about why anyone would withdraw funds was somewhat sarcastic since I realize good things never last and more likely than not we will be searching for something new in three years time, if not earlier, so it's safer to withdraw ever so often so that we can allocate the freed up funds for less risky endeavors that might make a lot less return annually but will still compound nicely over the course of 10-20-30 years or will pay out good dividends and allow us to retire early .
        Last edited by reaper_unique; 08-13-2017, 02:03 PM.

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        • reaper and all,

          this ea is clearly not the holly grail, none are.

          i believe joel will stay on top of things, but all strategies fail at some point.

          i have been at this for 10 years now and can assure you that market behaviour always changes over time. so one has to always be ready to pull the plug at some point.

          case in point is good ole robin which was backtested, monte carlo and who knows what else, gee i think even nasas supercomputer gave it the green light. yet it crashed and burned, shortly after its release. this was the most analysed strategy that i remember by far.

          currently there is at least 5 strategies mine included trading ala sfe and i sure hope the markets stays the course for some time longer.

          with the central banks now shifting i do have a good feeling, but one never knows when the patterns change.

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          • is this signal unavailable for purchase at the moment?

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            • No you have the rong signal.

              https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...High-Risk.html

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              • Originally posted by freddy250 View Post
                is this signal unavailable for purchase at the moment?
                Joel started to set up the SimpleTrader signal but he didn't complete the process. So you can see it in the Market Place but it's not open for subscription. With his approval I took over and used my own account running SFE PA on Autolot High Risk as the Signal account. This one is not in the Market Place because I don't have 6 months of history yet.

                Anyway, here is the link: https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...High-Risk.html

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                • jimmy, which of your two accounts are you going to keep Friday trading enabled? I would like to track the performance for that day, it would be interesting to see and compare.

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                  • Originally posted by nvenr32 View Post
                    jimmy, which of your two accounts are you going to keep Friday trading enabled? I would like to track the performance for that day, it would be interesting to see and compare.
                    I will continue trading Friday on my personal account (the one with Steady Capture, SFE Price Action and SFE Night Scalper). Friday trading will be disabled for the Signal account.

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                    • Originally posted by ccjhuang View Post

                      I will continue trading Friday on my personal account (the one with Steady Capture, SFE Price Action and SFE Night Scalper). Friday trading will be disabled for the Signal account.
                      Ok, great thanks Jimmy Also do you believe that this was a good move by Joel? I mean should we just give up on Friday's? You never know when things may turn around for that day.

                      Also my concern is what if Friday's start becoming profitable, but another week day becomes less profitable then the performance of the EA will change drastically, so it's really a tough call.

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                      • Originally posted by nvenr32 View Post

                        Ok, great thanks Jimmy Also do you believe that this was a good move by Joel? I mean should we just give up on Friday's? You never know when things may turn around for that day.

                        Also my concern is what if Friday's start becoming profitable, but another week day becomes less profitable then the performance of the EA will change drastically, so it's really a tough call.
                        Not sure if you have been following the comments on the MQL5 page, but another user has posted a graph for cumulative profits on Fridays since 2003: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/produ...omment=5603807

                        You can see from the graph that the current DD / Stagnation on Fridays started since about mid-2015, but the overall graph has a really strong positive trend.

                        I personally feel that Fridays should eventually make a new highs just like it did in the past. There was also an extended period in 2005-2009 where Fridays were not profitable, but it has made a lot more profits since then.

                        But Joel has made the official call to stop Friday trading, so I will do the same on the Signal account. I think it was more of a compromise to stop people complaining about the losses on Fridays, even though history has shown it is still a profitable day in the long term. It also helps eliminate the eternal question of whether trades should be left over the weekend. After all, there is no doubt the strategy is still very profitable trading only Monday to Thursday, so there is no need for Joel to continue with the headaches that Friday is giving him from his users. I think it is also the reason why Joel has left disable Friday trading an optional feature instead of the default setting, because he is not entirely convinced that Friday will no longer be profitable in the future. I hope those people who asked for Friday to be disabled won't complain when a day with crazy gain comes on a Friday in the near future

                        On my personal account I am just going to leave the EA running 24/5 and see what will happen
                        Last edited by ccjhuang; 08-14-2017, 11:39 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by ccjhuang View Post

                          I personally feel that Fridays should eventually make a new highs just like it did in the past. There was also an extended period in 2005-2009 where Fridays were not profitable, but it has made a lot more profits since then.

                          But Joel has made the official call to stop Friday trading, so I will do the same on the Signal account.

                          On my personal account I am just going to leave it running 24/5 and see what will happen
                          I'm not even on the signal but have the EA on rent, so just following this thread.

                          I totally agree with you, Friday will make a come back, NFP was very good recently in fact.

                          Do you think he really said to stop on Friday? I thought he is making it an option in the EA and everyone will have to decide for themselves.

                          So if we have a bad Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday, all trading can be stopped LOL

                          Personally, I think it should have an option to risk 1% on Monday, 2% on Tuesday, 3% on Wednesday & 4% on Thursday.

                          And then if you're in profit, don't trade Fridays
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                          • I believe he is going to stop Friday on his official account for now.

                            This was what he said:

                            - So, I just introduced a new parameter for disable a Day, and I will disable the Friday since now. This don't mean we will have this day disabled forever, if a change in the days of the news or in this style of the Friday changes, we can recover, but at this moment, is definetely worthless.

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                            • Im going to keep it on .

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                              • Originally posted by Tripzor View Post
                                Im going to keep it on .
                                That's the spirit... after all, what's the worst that could happen!

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