Satang FX Signal/MAM - minkw

[Westie]

As you can see my bias with the aud nzd was totally wrong I was expecting aud strength across the board. While I sometimes scale and profit take out of a basket due to aud nzd the main goal here is to 100% average out with no loss

Hi got a question about the aud/nzd basket.

We've got 7 positions open on that one now, in the signal description it says the basket will be a max of 10-12.

I'm just thinking, if we're at 3% ish DD with 7 positions - won't you end up running into the 5% cap before then ?

In any case, great signal. Only been with it since December, even if we hit the 5% Tomorrow I'll still be up 5%, which I think is phenomenal.

[minkw]

Hi Westie,

Its unlikely that 10-12 positions will be opened, as I will probably cut this basket before we reach the 5% max dd,

If i feel we can exit with no loss before 4% i will let it run, but 4% is uncomfortable for me and I will probably cut close all on the aud nzd, the last time we were in this scenario was in august last year, im not afraid to take a loss, evaluate then move on, as this can easily be made up in one or two months, I know when im wrong and have accepted this with the aud nzd, however if we can get out of this mess at break even i will be happy,

I just need to wait and see how price plays out when on Monday/Tuesday

Im glad the signal has been profitable for you,

Kind Regards,

Satang FX / Min

[Westie]

Brilliant, that's exactly what I was hoping you would say - as it's exactly what I would do too !

I'm totally fed up with signals which hold onto losing positions for months on end, hedge or other rubbish.

[minkw]

Hey all this aud nzd basket looks like it's gone pear shaped,

its ok I'm watching this closely

been booking some decent pips on the and cad but I know this dd is more important if we make a leg lower will consider manually closing all a bit under 4%

apologies to the recent subs I got in the last few weeks, however if we do close this basket out at a loss it will take between 1-2 months to recover

[ales]

Yeah, you cant have it always right... thats completely normal.
Looks like this 1.0800 was important lvl, nothing much down to 1.0600 now.

Wonder what was your original thought / plan on this basket if you dont mind me asking?

[minkw]

Hi ales,

The strategy has a few components to it, being range, trend continuation and loss recovery(bluntly averaging) some people don't like averaging however with controlling leverage and risk it's not an issue, currently we are about a bit over 1:2 leverage and 3% dd

it looks for a target price and will buy or sell until the target is hit then re evaluates and looks for another target

the aud nzd was initially range based being correct 1.08 then changed to loss recovery once it broke lower, strategy then changed by attempting to average out hence the fact I did not take profit several times on our latest entry

we are in a bit of a sticky situation at the moment but will cut our loss at 4%dd reevaluate then move on, while I know 4% dd is not much, however recovery is a better path then letting dd get out of control,

[ales]

cheers man. got it.

yeah, there is a risk of move to 1.0600 now.

[muskokaman]

I'm disabling the signal temporarily if that's the case, I see a move down to the 1.05's coming, so I'll hedge your positions until we get that move and then ride the momentum upwards and eventually get out without the loss.

Thanks for the update.

[Westie]

It might still retrace, the 1.068 level found support before after all.

Anyway, if it doesn't we just take the loss and move on right - it's exactly what the signal description says, and is why I signed up.

[minkw]

Sorry guys, closed out with a loss a bit over 4%

last time I did this was in August last year, trust me it hurts a lot, but its recoverable in 1-2 months,

Again please accept my apologise,

[minkw]

Ok so we are down roughly -2.3% for this month

i expect to be at equity highs by the end of next month

this is gut wrenching as I've personally lost a lot more that's not publicy viewable, and put at jepordy the prop fund as well

if you want to unsubscribe I am willing to refund this months subscription, please pm me or email me at invest@satangfx.com with your PayPal email address

again I'm really sorry for the loss,

I'm in this for the long haul and I trade full-time so I hope you all still have confidence with me,

I know exactly what went wrong with the and nzd basket, this pair tends to range and stagnates, then trends heavily in one direction, we were just on the wrong side,

The fx markets as you know will range 80% of the time and this is where this strategy works best however we literally got caught and blown out of the water

Perhaps I'm being to hard on myself but I feel absolutely terrible as it's been over 6 months since this has happened

again I'm really sorry

[ktyong]

I like that you stick to the rules. I will stay to enjoy the next equity high. Cheers.

Sent from my MI 5C using Tapatalk

[minkw]

Thanks for your kind words ktyong

the last time I had a losing month was December 2016, basicly before I even started offering signals, it was about 8%

however this current loss hurts more as I have subs and mams and roughly know how much is following me

I've pretty much have thrown in the towel in relation to attempting to break even this month, while it may be possible it's not worth the risk as I would need to dial up the activity and take on more risk, so for until further notice it will be a slow and controlled recovery

[Westie]

So Pleased you stuck to your rules

The averaging strategy does a good job recovering, so long as you accept when it's failed and take the loss.

I just had a very expensive lesson with another system here which also uses averaging. If the loss had been taken at the correct time, then it would have had a small loss and recovered in a couple of months.

However, the loss wasn't taken ending up with hedges, then eventually hedges on hedges that went on for months. During that time, the strategy couldn't trade (all the risk capital was tied up in maintaining the open positions + hedges), so you get to lose any potential income as well.

In my mind, the only way this can work is if your strict with risk management and take the loss when needed.

[minkw]

Thanks westie for your kind words,

I have received several emails and pm's from subs and investors and they have all told me they are not worried, I also spoke to my parents as I am also managing funds for them, and my mum actually said "min stop whipping yourself!"

I guess I'm just disappointed with myself as I should have contained the situation and cut the basket earlier, as I could see this coming as per my previous posts,

yes averaging is fine and even the big hedge funds do this if they foresee profit to be made, or to break even but as you mentioned risk management is important,

the current loss for this month I foresee is easily recoverable defiantly by the end of next month