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Outside the Box -- Signal and Mt Cook PAMM fund

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  • When you add unnecessary, toxic content to the forum, you create a poorer experience for others (especially new arrivals) who come looking for good/helpful conversations.

    none of us want the forum to turn into another forum where ego bashing takes precedence over intelligent exchange. I know more than anyone that with persistence, intelligence, self control, and psychological regulation, it is more than possible to develop a good consistently profitable trading strategy and track record. That is what we are all here for.

    It may feel gratifying to some, to kick someone when they're already down and probably kicking themselves - that is human nature, but bear in mind that you're doing to someone else what you wouldn't want done to you -- simple Golden Rule morality--… this is precisely what recent comments are amounting to.

    So please,
    Keep the forum clean
    Just keep it civil, and make this forum a better place for others who come here for more intellectual reasons devoid of bashing and petty basher talk.
    Last edited by OutsideTheBoxHK; 07-31-2019, 07:22 PM.

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    • Where have RenkoGuy's posts gone ? Is this what happens to anyone who criticises OTB ?

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      • Originally posted by OutsideTheBoxHK View Post
        When you add unnecessary, toxic content to the forum, you create a poorer experience for others (especially new arrivals) who come looking for good/helpful conversations.
        Criticism is not toxic content, but the helpfull conversation people are looking for

        When are the new accounts going live? I thought today is the big day?

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        • And how many more months will it take before the new 12% cut off level is implemented? My educated guess is never, it was just a distraction to give impression things will be fixed but there never was serious intention to do it. Nor will it work.

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          • Originally posted by OutsideTheBoxHK View Post
            ok sounds good. prove it. show verified results. show equity and profit gained.
            you know-- DD doesn't really matter that much, unless you have considerably large assets following -- as long as it can be recovered relatively quickly... it is the Pain to Gain ratio that really matters. What DD is carried in order to profit a certain percentage over a given period.

            Dude, the "remote island" I was living on is called Cheung Chau, and yes that was real. It's obvious that you don't want to bother with real-life parts of the story, and that is your prerogative to do so, but others here do want to know about the real life pressures and parts of life that need to be carefully balanced in order to trade well and consistently. That was just what I was dealing with then. Now I have set up well in a new office in the Philippines and things are peaceful and quiet.
            I dont have to prove anything because I am not trying to sell a service. The numbers are 100% true, you can believe it or not. And it was not a fluke month but it was above average. There is no way you can achieve those kinds of numbers even during your best month because the system is not capable of it. You will always encounter those huge DDs and your long term efficiency will never be worth investing in your system. One look at your account and its very clear. 60%+ DD to make 2% monthly a ridiculous proposition.


            I can give you their contact and maybe they can teach you how to trade instead of gamble Because what you are doing can not be called trading.
            Last edited by mmaker1; 08-01-2019, 07:42 PM.

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            • Originally posted by Amadorian View Post

              Criticism is not toxic content, but the helpfull conversation people are looking for

              When are the new accounts going live? I thought today is the big day?
              Yes this is month end, with reports and client communications, so a busy time.
              Especially with 25% July and then a stellar start to August -- over 17% in one day at relatively low risk after the whole Trump Tariff "surprise".
              Wasn't really a surprise to me and I was positioned correctly for it. See stats and equity curve below.

              We're well on the recovery path now. The hearty folk who remained calm are now being rewarded. I know the risks, I also know the rewards, and yes the Upgraded and Improved Core Strategy is being activated on a New PAMM master account as we speak, the trade copying software calibrated, and existing and longer term clients are being offered an opportunity to switch over to the New PAMM first (and the High Water Mark calculations are important for this to be a smooth transition)... and then I will make it all public and visible after the weekend of asynchronous messages crossing the globe to Accounts Team, dedicated server team, and my Risk Manager.

              I hear all you're saying, so I guess just sit back and watch -- and chime in as you feel necessary. Busy here with all the above and trade plans for August.

              Screen Shot 2019-08-03 at 5.49.06 AM.png
              Screen Shot 2019-08-03 at 5.49.23 AM.pngScreen Shot 2019-08-03 at 5.49.34 AM.png
              Last edited by OutsideTheBoxHK; 08-02-2019, 09:59 PM.

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              • In order to Beat the Casino or Beat the Markets, as Edward Thorp explains in this video, you first have to have a repeatable edge over the House. Then when "card counting" you always put more money down to leverage a more likely winning hand. This is how Edward Thorp gained notoriety, in that the first well known Blackjack Team comprised of intelligent ex students from three prestigious Ivy League schools used his Hi-Low Card Counting system when they went out to execute their strategy in multiple casinos first in the USA and then internationally in smaller teams as well.
                The best, most realistic account of how the team of players executed this casino strategy in real life in my mind was

                Breaking Vegas Documentary: The True Story of The MIT Blackjack Team

                Edward Oakley Thorp (born August 14, 1932) is an American mathematics professor, author, hedge fund manager, and blackjack researcher. He pioneered the modern applications of probability theory, including the harnessing of very small correlations for reliable financial gain.[citation needed]
                Thorp is the author of Beat the Dealer, which mathematically proved that the house advantage in blackjack could be overcome by card counting.[1] He also developed and applied effective hedge fund techniques in the financial markets, and collaborated with Claude Shannon in creating the first wearable computer.[2]
                Thorp received his Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles in 1958, and worked at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) from 1959 to 1961. He was a professor of mathematics from 1961 to 1965 at New Mexico State University, and then joined the University of California, Irvine where he was a professor of mathematics from 1965 to 1977 and a professor of mathematics and finance from 1977 to 1982.
                - Busting Vegas "For nearly five years, he was known as the 'Darling Of Las Vegas'; the biggest high roller to hit Sin City in decades, a hotshot, twenty one year-old kid with a seemingly unlimited bankroll and an even more unlimited lust for big money action. His name was Semyon Dukatch, and stories swirled in his wake. Some said he was a Russian arms dealer, others a pop star from Eastern Europe. But the truth was even more unlikely: he was a twenty-one year old graduate student who had a plan that would one day make him richer than anyone could possibly imagine. The Darling of Las Vegas quickly became a legend in the casino world. He is the only person banned from the island of Aruba. He was held, at gunpoint, in a cave in Monte Carlo and told that if he ever returned, he'd be murdered. And he made millions of dollars playing blackjack."
                The MIT Blackjack Team ran at least 22 partnerships in the time period from late 1979 through 1989. At least 70 people played on the team in some capacity (either as counters, Big Players, or in various supporting roles) over that time span. Every partnership was profitable during this time period, after paying all expenses as well as the players' and managers' share of the winnings, with returns to investors ranging from 4%/year to over 300%/year.

                While the MIT team's card counting techniques can give players an overall edge of about 2 percent, some of the MIT team's methods have been established as gaining players an overall edge of about 4 percent.
                In 1992, Bill Kaplan, J.P. Massar, and John Chang decided to capitalize on the opening of Foxwoods Casino in nearby Connecticut, where they planned to train new players. Acting as the General Partner, they formed a Massachusetts Limited Partnership in June 1992 called Strategic Investments to bankroll the new team. Structured similar to the numerous real estate development limited partnerships that Kaplan had formed, the limited partnership raised a million dollars, significantly more money than any of their previous teams, with a method based on Edward Thorp's high low system. It involved three players: a big player, a controller, and a spotter. The spotter checked when the deck went positive with card counting, the controller would bet small constantly, wasting money, and verifying the spotter's count. Once the controller found a positive, he would signal to the big player. He would make a massive bet, and win big. Confident with this new funding, the three general partners ramped up their recruitment and training efforts to capitalize on the opportunity.
                Last edited by OutsideTheBoxHK; 08-03-2019, 06:15 AM.

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                • Well, great for you, nobody doubts that you can have a good run.

                  But it comes at a great risk. Most of that perfomance came from a single 40 pips aud/usd trade. 40 pips isn't a huge move, and it could've easily gone the wrong way. Knowing that you dont use any stop loss on negative trades, this is a formula for disaster. You were lucky this time, but in times of fomc, NFP and trump its a very risky move and proves the opposite of what you're trying to tell people.
                  Instead of reducing the risk after the 60% dd disaster, it looks like you increased it.

                  Lets see how your new 12%dd account works out.

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                  • Originally posted by Amadorian View Post
                    nobody doubts that you can have a good run.

                    But it comes at a great risk. Most of that perfomance came from a single 40 pips aud/usd trade. 40 pips isn't a huge move, and it could've easily gone the wrong way. Knowing that you dont use any stop loss on negative trades, this is a formula for disaster. You were lucky this time...
                    For this one I'll give OTB the benefit of the doubt. I'm MAD at myself for not catching that trade. It was pretty obvious once the train left the station so I'd say it was a pretty low risk deal. Dont know where he placed his stops on the initial trade (I would've shadowed the most recent high) but it was a pretty low risk AUD trade. Even if he lost the trade you couldnt argue with the logic and I wouldnt be mad if it dinged my account. Smart Risk better than Dumb Risk.

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                    • Originally posted by BonusCashFX View Post
                      Dont know where he placed his stops on the initial trade
                      What are you talking about LOL?? You should know by now that there are no stops of any kind! We witnessed it time and time again and it's no different now. That's why accounts were blown on increased risk and he reached 70% DD on low risk (if there is such a thing).

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                      • The highest Drawdown possible now starting tomorrow probably is 15%. And the upside edge this strategy maintains is excellent.
                        I stop out my positions either with Rescue Level at software level or manually, which I did in June.
                        July was awesome.
                        August is awesome again.

                        Of course Nobody wants to talk about what's currently going on, people can look for themselves. A firm recovery.
                        25% and now 20% in the new month. OTB Core Strategy.

                        The 60% drawdown was an anomaly if you look at the whole 31 month track record, and I have already taken steps to address it. The teams at Mt Cook say they are 75% done with setting up the New PAMM master account and as you can see the new improved strategy will recover quite nicely. Once again, as I have said countless times, it pays to do your homework, take the emotion down a few notches, and compare performances of traders who have been in business over 2 or 3 years.

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                        • Originally posted by OutsideTheBoxHK View Post
                          The highest Drawdown possible now starting tomorrow probably is 15%. And the upside edge this strategy maintains is excellent.
                          I stop out my positions either with Rescue Level at software level or manually, which I did in June.
                          July was awesome.
                          August is awesome again.
                          15% dd probably? What does that mean, will it be max. 15% or not? That kind of rhetoric keeps the door way open to break your own rules again .

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                          • the word "probably" was a "hanging adverb" in English grammar. It referred to the idea I communicated immediately before the word "probably".
                            What my poor English words meant was that PROBABLY tomorrow the whole new improved system will be ready, but I am waiting on the all clear from Tech team and Admin Team.
                            "probably" did not describe the 15% drawdown now hard-coded into the Hybrid PAMM software. My scale-in and scale-out will apply the brakes in advance of a 15% threshhold, so that is not really a risk -- barring a liquidity event when all players get slipped.

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                            • He will probably need a lot of luck to not hit 15% DD by next wednesday.

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                              • You guys are probably right that he probably should not use probably to describe something that probably won’t happen.

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