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Outside the Box -- Signal and Mt Cook PAMM fund

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  • If this move doesn't reverse in a timely manner we will quickly see about that 15% DD limit that magicaly solved everything... I'm pretty sure he's risk off positioned.

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    • Originally posted by Westie View Post
      I'm having a hard time with the Maths teacher idea.

      I did badly in A Level Maths. I didn't take statistics as I was better at applied and pure maths. Even so - I have a rudimentary understanding of probability.

      It isn't clear to me that you do, and it seems even more far fetched that you have a degree in the subject.

      I can only conclude, you were teaching younger children where probability is not covered and you don't need the requisite degree level qualifications to teach.
      You can find my CV on my LinkedIn profile. I studied Pure Mathematics for Bachelors, and Applied Mathematics (which includes high level stats courses) during my MA in Mathematics Education.
      Last edited by OutsideTheBoxHK; 08-14-2019, 01:51 AM.

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      • Originally posted by MrMcmahon View Post

        Lol people who are older in the forum know about me and how i have predicted each signal provider's fate correctly .

        Can you even show us a proof that you have a ms in maths ??????
        2.Last year you claimed you were making 100K from fx profits . If some1 is making that kind of money they have a big account and in no way they would trade with mt4 or bother with being a signal provider
        3. Your system edge is to hold on to trades until it turns into a profit .A veteran of this forum will tell you how it will eventually go down no matter what u do ????
        4. Stop fooling urself atleast .It is embarassing to read your comments , feels like written by a 6 year old boy who wants to justify why his toy is the best in the market
        5. Small wins huge loss , which stats book told you that it has an edge ???? Share the book link here .If you do it i will go back in the shadows to never return again

        The best way that traders and gamblers determine whether their strategy has a consistent edge is to calculate the Expected Value or Expectancy of a Distribution with as large of a sample size as possible.

        My most successful strategies have had:

        Mt Cook PAMM -- 25 months
        Profit Factor: 1.32
        Expectancy: 45.8 Pips / $1.82
        Outside the Box part 1 of 2 - see Mt Cook -- 23 months
        Profit Factor: 5.29
        Expectancy: 6.4 Pips / NZ$55.29
        Outside the Box 2 - [closed] -- 7 months
        Profit Factor: infinity
        Expectancy: 10.4 Pips / $3.14

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        • The most important thing in determining whether the result is statistically significant or not is by the sample size, not by the length of time.

          Mt Cook PAM -1958 trades
          OTB 1 - 1014 trades
          OTB 2 - 270 trades

          The combined sample size is simply too small to prove you have a long term statistical edge over the market.

          The official SFE Price Action account now has 21734 trades with over 400% gain since inception: https://www.myfxbook.com/en/members/...action/1331484

          Now that’s how real long term statistical edge should look like.
          Last edited by ccjhuang; 08-14-2019, 03:54 AM.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by ccjhuang View Post
            The most important thing in determining whether the result is statistically significant or not is by the sample size, not by the length of time.

            Mt Cook PAM -1958 trades
            OTB 1 - 1014 trades
            OTB 2 - 270 trades

            The combined sample size is simply too small to prove you have a long term statistical edge over the market.

            Yes that would be a more superior sample size from the potential population of total trades.
            But then again, if you want to be one of those first investors in Nike, Wal-Mart, Coca-Cola, Amazon, Apple, or Microsoft, then you have to make projections off the data that you are able to collect and realize that there is much higher reward for investing in a real winner in the early stages when the access is easier and cheaper.

            Comment


            • Well if people would really like to gamble with their money then they can just join this account which looks even better than yours: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/was.../frero/2406407

              But then again, there is only a little over 2000 trades on that account so I am sure it is also going to crash at some point (it already had several drawdowns up to 40% but managed to survive so far). Also I call this account a “gamble” because I know the system does not have a long term statistical edge over the market; on the other hand, trading with the statistical edge with SFE EAs is a long term “investment”.
              Last edited by ccjhuang; 08-14-2019, 07:02 AM.

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              • 38% so far this month.
                25% last month.
                The recovery is now more than half complete. Only 6 weeks in. Contrary to all the complainers, trolls, and those who don't not want to work hard to form into perfection -- instead they just talk about it -- what it "might" be like.

                Naysayers are weak and scared and take the easy way out.
                Those with courage will endure in strength.

                the peanut gallery is silent, as expected when OTB strategy is pumping the way it normally does over LONG periods of time.
                Limiting the DD severity is mostly what was causing most of the damage to excellent profits acquired over time.

                Screen Shot 2019-08-21 at 2.45.49 PM.png
                Last edited by OutsideTheBoxHK; 08-21-2019, 06:48 AM.

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                • RenkoGuy wrong. blanket statements will not serve this community of Forex students, traders, and investors.

                  successful scalpers:

                  1 - Blackwave Pacific No Limit
                  2 - Paul Rotter

                  If done manually, scalping requires constant vigilance, low trading costs, a lot of nerve and a quick trigger finger. A sudden and unexpected change in direction of the security could wipe our all your gains and put you in the red in an instant.
                  Many high-frequency trading strategies utilize the scalping approach. They have a direct feed to the exchange and can transact thousands of times a minute if necessary.
                  It’s certainly possible to scalp over a longer time period, but then your risk of a reversal increases.
                  Like every investment strategy, it’s risk versus reward.


                  These core disciplines will support you in becoming a successful scalper:
                  • Discipline—the ability to recognise when a trade is wrong and therefore minimise losses
                  • Risk control—having a strong understanding of a trade's risk/reward (You can read more about this in our risk management guide)
                  • Courage—the willingness to be different from the rest of the crowd, most of the time
                  • Astuteness—judging how perceptions are shaping market trends

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by OutsideTheBoxHK View Post

                    These core disciplines will support you in becoming a successful scalper:
                    • Discipline—the ability to recognise when a trade is wrong and therefore minimise losses
                    • Risk control—having a strong understanding of a trade's risk/reward (You can read more about this in our risk management guide)
                    • Courage—the willingness to be different from the rest of the crowd, most of the time
                    • Astuteness—judging how perceptions are shaping market trends
                    Discipline you don't have. Perhaps you recognise when the trade is wrong but you have no idea how to minimise losses. You just let it go as far is the market goes.
                    Risk control you don't have. Every rule, guideline or just vague comment about risk you ever made you just went miles further.
                    Courage you have, there's little point in being different just for the sake of being different. It certainly didn't make any of us any good.
                    Astuteness doesn't help with all of the above in mind.

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                    • this is what's called OVERCOMING IN THE FACE OF ADVERSITY. All the people who nag at my strategy, harass when it is easy to do so, and who add their comments only when we are in a drawdown, do not speak when the strategy is performing AS A WELL OILED MACHINE OF PROFITS.
                      25% PROFIT JULY.
                      48% PROFIT AUGUST.
                      4% PROFIT SEPTEMEBER

                      there are psychological skills learnt, courage built, and trading skills practiced.
                      If you are new at trading, or if you are in the middle.... take note. So many people have doubted me and verbalised it without doing proper calculations and analysis.
                      Just look at the returns:

                      1 - after drawdowns
                      2 - over 3 months, 6 months, and 12 month periods

                      Screen Shot 2019-09-03 at 4.25.27 PM.png

                      Screen Shot 2019-09-03 at 4.24.18 PM.png

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                      • you are forgetting that people will not risk big amounts on account that has DD over 60%. This is good for small accounts to gamble but imagine if somebody would follow you with 100k or 1 mil. They would lose their mind if 65% was wiped out. In the longterm people seek stable performance, not heart attack...

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                        • Yes exactly. Have one $100,000 USD client in April.... profited over 21% in May... then took profit end of month.... suffered drawdown... now has added to their initial investment like I advised, and their two investments are doing quite well since April... (just a snapshot of a big investor)

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by RenkoGuy
                            More arrogant by the day.
                            there are many other adjectives that people should choose.

                            PROFITABLE
                            RESILIENT
                            CONSISTENT
                            TOUGH

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                            • Two good month, great for your followers. But bragging about how super cool you are, and how amazing your trading is, while still being in a 30% DD + a 10% floating dd is just weird

                              Get to a new equity high first, then we talk again, you're only halfway done.
                              Last edited by Amadorian; 09-04-2019, 07:26 PM.

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                              • Originally posted by RenkoGuy

                                He is trading the Dow with a Mickey Mouse account so it looks like a lot but it isn't.
                                Yes, but still, percentagewise he had two good month, no need to argue about that. I give him that.
                                Being so arrogant about his trading while still being in a huge DD is what bugs me.

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