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  • What I can tell you is that I make those decisions on a case by case basis based on the individual merits of the trade in question at the time. My stating that DD of that magnitude will not occur again is no different to me than stating my largest magnitude positive monthly return ever WILL occur. It's simply not probable to predict. The vast majority of months will not be outliers but closer to the long term average.

    What I will say is that my long term 'risk adjusted returns' are actually very favourable on a relative basis. Compared to equity indexes for example my returns have been higher, with less relative risk / DD. I cannot predict significant spikes up or down anymore accurately than I can predict future stock market spikes except to say that there will be more positive moves than negative ones.

    I can also tell you that trading through my worst month ever was more constructive to me personally than trading through my best month ever. The reason is because I analyze and learn more after going through tough DD which doesn't tend to happen as much when trading very profitably.

    While you are correct to assume that a larger than average DD in a forex chart could POTENTIALLY be a sign of trouble, (Especially for 'systems based' trading or single currency pair strategies) that has never been the case for me because I am not a systems based trader nor do I stick to one specific currency pair. Every historical occasion of significant DD in my history was it's own unique case which did not repeat again. The next one would be a different animal entirely which is also an accurate characterization of my best months ever.

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    • Originally posted by SteadyCapture View Post
      What I can tell you is that I make those decisions on a case by case basis based on the individual merits of the trade in question at the time. My stating that DD of that magnitude will not occur again is no different to me than stating my largest magnitude positive monthly return ever WILL occur. It's simply not probable to predict. The vast majority of months will not be outliers but closer to the long term average.

      What I will say is that my long term 'risk adjusted returns' are actually very favourable on a relative basis. Compared to equity indexes for example my returns have been higher, with less relative risk / DD. I cannot predict significant spikes up or down anymore accurately than I can predict future stock market spikes except to say that there will be more positive moves than negative ones.

      I can also tell you that trading through my worst month ever was more constructive to me personally than trading through my best month ever. The reason is because I analyze and learn more after going through tough DD which doesn't tend to happen as much when trading very profitably.

      While you are correct to assume that a larger than average DD in a forex chart could POTENTIALLY be a sign of trouble, (Especially for 'systems based' trading or single currency pair strategies) that has never been the case for me because I am not a systems based trader nor do I stick to one specific currency pair. Every historical occasion of significant DD in my history was it's own unique case which did not repeat again. The next one would be a different animal entirely which is also an accurate characterization of my best months ever.
      Agreed, I am starting to use VAR as a measure of the risk a trader is taking rather than DD. The problem with DD is it is historic, a trader can trade for a long period with very low DD, they may just be lucky, but if they are trading at very high risk, sooner or later, Bang!!

      Liking your trading and feedback to the forum more and more as time passes. Keep up the good work!

      Comment


      • Originally posted by BillHuppert View Post
        Agreed, I am starting to use VAR as a measure of the risk a trader is taking rather than DD. The problem with DD is it is historic, a trader can trade for a long period with very low DD, they may just be lucky, but if they are trading at very high risk, sooner or later, Bang!!

        Liking your trading and feedback to the forum more and more as time passes. Keep up the good work!
        Whats is var ??

        Sent from my SM-G900H using Tapatalk

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        • Originally posted by Sherif View Post
          Whats is var ??

          Sent from my SM-G900H using Tapatalk
          You'll find it here:

          https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=VA..._sm=0&ie=UTF-8

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          • Is the GBPJPY long still open, as it shows as closed on my ST portal, but it's still open on my account?


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            • there is a new gj opened this morning

              Comment


              • Strange, didn't get the new GBPJPY trade and the old one never closed.


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                • The "new" GJ trade is from Smart Scalper not by SC.

                  Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

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                  • Originally posted by taruh View Post
                    The "new" GJ trade is from Smart Scalper not by SC.

                    Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk
                    So did your old GBPJPY trade close? (
                    SC TRADE)



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                    • Originally posted by Gunther View Post
                      So did your old GBPJPY trade close? (
                      SC TRADE)



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                      No. Both trades are open.

                      Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

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                      • According to SC closed and open positions he opened GBPJPY (3410722) on the 2016/01/06, but I have GBPJPY (3336393) still open from the same date, but don't have the first trade mentioned above, or the trade opened yesterday.

                        On SC ST open position page there was no GBPJPY trade opened yesterday.

                        Confused ? Any one have any ideas?


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                        • Originally posted by Gunther View Post
                          According to SC closed and open positions he opened GBPJPY (3410722) on the 2016/01/06, but I have GBPJPY (3336393) still open from the same date, but don't have the first trade mentioned above, or the trade opened yesterday.

                          On SC ST open position page there was no GBPJPY trade opened yesterday.

                          Confused ? Any one have any ideas?


                          Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                          Thats because SC only closed about 1/10 position of the original trade while remaining position is still open. In MT4 when a position is partially closed, the remaining position is assigned a new order number. This is why you can't see the original order number anymore. Hope this helps.

                          Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by taruh View Post
                            Thats because SC only closed about 1/10 position of the original trade while remaining position is still open. In MT4 when a position is partially closed, the remaining position is assigned a new order number. This is why you can't see the original order number anymore. Hope this helps.

                            Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk
                            I thought I was getting caught off side on the GBPJPY trades. That clears it up.

                            Thanks


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                            • That sure was a sexy USDCAD position earlier Jay. I watched the whole thing.

                              Was great to see it snap back a little, add a second trade right at the absolute peak of the spike.... stall.... then boom!

                              I just made a shitload on that
                              Click here to check out the most popular forex channel on YouTube

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                              • Lol nice, I really liked that setup.

                                --------------------------------

                                G/J position is still being wound down gradually. It's at the point where I can sit back and let the best chances come to me. The overall basket that started in January is net positive, so if some are tired of watching it and want to close it out fine, but I still prefer to let the remaining position fund it's own exits.

                                It appears that market volatility will continue to provide the opportunities so I'm not worried about it.

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