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  • Originally posted by ales View Post
    Its all about the equity... so realizing a loss or staying locked in the hedge doesnt make any difference. Jay still has to make new profitable trades which would get us somehow back. Thinking of making 15% within 2 months is surely unrealistic with the 1% monthly average yield.

    In the meanwhile AUD longs being hedged. Same as longs on cable... At least the balance line on the chart looks pretty... oh dear.
    I have to agree with ales on this one. Having a hedge is not realising losses.

    There is no crystal ball on this one. In my opinion, it is a situation where the trader does not know which way this is heading and is locked into a hedge to try and guess the next move with his knowledge of multiple facets that move markets.

    The only problem here is no one knows which way the market is going to go and it is all about risk management. To risk so much capital and continue to try and get out of this predicament for a measly couple of pips is risky.

    I am just about to take the hit and close all trades. I have seen so many traders fail miserably on here who could not accept a loss. No matter how much knowledge of the markets it is all about risk management and know when you are licked on a certain trade/basket.

    Good luck Jay. I will continue to monitor closely to ascertain if I need to jump ship.

    In Jays defence he has stated his drawn down levels and has not exceeded that. I guess this is my problems since I should have read the T&C of his risk profile.



    Kind Regards.
    Last edited by dazz1975; 02-05-2018, 09:54 PM.

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    • I think Jay has this under control. He will take profits from sells and take profits from buys and do a little dance in the meantime. I would say Jay is the best trader on this site so he's obvioulsy sold at the bottom and "maybe" bought at the top. But right now we basically fully hedged so i am hoping that now we can really make some profits and use some of them to close down a bit of hedge but essentially has the balance AND equity headed up. With the VIX like this and the way Jay trades it's entirely possible that this could be done in 2 months. Anyways jay is the only provider hat I have the utmost confidence in and i will let him do his job.

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      • Originally posted by ales View Post
        Its all about the equity... so realizing a loss or staying locked in the hedge doesnt make any difference. Jay still has to make new profitable trades which would get us somehow back. Thinking of making 15% within 2 months is surely unrealistic with the 1% monthly average yield.

        In the meanwhile AUD longs being hedged. Same as longs on cable... At least the balance line on the chart looks pretty... oh dear.
        If we are out of this in 3 months with no open drawdown and 3% balance increase then I will be extremely happy.

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        • Originally posted by Big River Man View Post

          If we are out of this in 3 months with no open drawdown and 3% balance increase then I will be extremely happy.
          I'm also pretty confident in how Jay has handled this. I appreciate it's worse now than last week, but like you say it's pretty much hedged now which I'm grateful for given the fall the global stock markets have just had.

          I would be happy to be out of the DD in 6 months with the same balance to be quite honest.

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          • Hey guys,

            Will and I spoke at length with Jay this morning about the current situation.

            The market has moved heavily in the past 24hrs against his earlier bias and he's now in a difficult situation deciding on how to move forward.

            In response to these moves, he's balanced out the trades with hedges for the next 48hrs while he looks at the best way to play it.

            His observation is that the market has the potential to capitulate at some point in the near future because he's seeing significant imbalances across several key market metrics.

            (Which is a fancy way of saying "Shit doesn't make a lot of sense right now".)

            There is a chance the USD and/or GBP could move hundreds of pips within minutes and without warning. A bit like a volcano bubbling away under the surface. Maybe nothing will happen... but maybe it will. And if it moves while we're on the wrong side of the market it'll be a catastrophe.

            Which leaves us in a sticky situation of traversing a mine-filled landscape with a full backpack of trades.

            Alternatively, he may close the trades reboot...

            This increase in volatility will offer a serious opportunity for Jay to make pips, but that potential could be strangled if we're still holding this huge basked of hedged positions.

            He's holding off making any decisions for the next 48hrs in an effort to find some clarity in the market, but I wanted to make sure you guys were aware of what's happening in the background.

            IF he does end up closing the trades AND the volatility continues, he's expecting to get us back up to equity high's within 6 months.



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            • Originally posted by Nick View Post
              Hey guys,

              Will and I spoke at length with Jay this morning about the current situation.

              The market has moved heavily in the past 24hrs against his earlier bias and he's now in a difficult situation deciding on how to move forward.

              In response to these moves, he's balanced out the trades with hedges for the next 48hrs while he looks at the best way to play it.

              His observation is that the market has the potential to capitulate at some point in the near future because he's seeing significant imbalances across several key market metrics.

              (Which is a fancy way of saying "Shit doesn't make a lot of sense right now".)

              There is a chance the USD and/or GBP could move hundreds of pips within minutes and without warning. A bit like a volcano bubbling away under the surface. Maybe nothing will happen... but maybe it will. And if it moves while we're on the wrong side of the market it'll be a catastrophe.

              Which leaves us in a sticky situation of traversing a mine-filled landscape with a full backpack of trades.

              Alternatively, he may close the trades reboot...

              This increase in volatility will offer a serious opportunity for Jay to make pips, but that potential could be strangled if we're still holding this huge basked of hedged positions.

              He's holding off making any decisions for the next 48hrs in an effort to find some clarity in the market, but I wanted to make sure you guys were aware of what's happening in the background.

              IF he does end up closing the trades AND the volatility continues, he's expecting to get us back up to equity high's within 6 months.


              I sure as shit hope he doesn't close out the trades. That would be a total ****** punch. Surely he's got to nous to be able to trade out of it. Right now e are hedged wit opportunity to make money on longs and shorts and to pick a direction.

              i really would of thought that he could navigate us out of this. I'd be pretty bloody disappointed if the close out is the option taken. He's in a war right now so it's time to get into war mode. The 48 hours is a great move. Let things settle. But I ca't see why we couldn't make 1% balance and close out 0.8% drawdown. Chip away at the drawdown as he eventually chooses a direction. Get in and out like the boss he normally is. If he is hedegd in these trades then he can basically ignore them and just make money and close out drawdown.

              Anyways I am pretty surprised to hear that he MAY NOT fight this. Interesting 48 hours.

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              • Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
                I sure as shit hope he doesn't close out the trades. That would be a total ****** punch.
                Fully hedged basically means the trades are closed already. For the Mt. Cook MAM investors the trades are actually closed and reopened at rollover every day. The losses are realized every day (balance = equity). At 4x multiplier, it will take 50% return to get back to where we started 6 months ago, which would take around 18 - 24 months based on prior performance. No one should ever invest in this strategy at 4x. That is only for gamblers like me. Even at 2x it is borderline.

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                • Originally posted by Big River Man

                  Anyways I am pretty surprised to hear that he MAY NOT fight this. Interesting 48 hours.
                  I am not surprised sometimes when you are in a pickle it is best to reset and restructure a new trade idea.

                  Seen it many times before people frustrated with a position and just dig themselves into a bigger hole. I support Jay fully if he decides to cut. Better to retreat and fight another day than risk a big cut of your capital.

                  Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

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                  • Only difference between closing out a trade or being hedged is that you pay unnecesary swap points.
                    Jay lost 11% on short cable, now another 4% on being long.
                    Im surprised to see Jay holding for so long in a single position despite he expected volatility and bigger moves and wanted to use it for frequent in and out trades...

                    Good he takes time to recouple now. Hopefully he gets back to his original trading, taking 0.5%-1% risk trades and slowly moves back on track.


                    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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                    • Originally posted by Nick
                      Hey guys,

                      Will and I spoke at length with Jay this morning about the current situation.

                      The market has moved heavily in the past 24hrs against his earlier bias and he's now in a difficult situation deciding on how to move forward.

                      In response to these moves, he's balanced out the trades with hedges for the next 48hrs while he looks at the best way to play it.

                      His observation is that the market has the potential to capitulate at some point in the near future because he's seeing significant imbalances across several key market metrics.

                      (Which is a fancy way of saying "Shit doesn't make a lot of sense right now".)

                      There is a chance the USD and/or GBP could move hundreds of pips within minutes and without warning. A bit like a volcano bubbling away under the surface. Maybe nothing will happen... but maybe it will. And if it moves while we're on the wrong side of the market it'll be a catastrophe.

                      Which leaves us in a sticky situation of traversing a mine-filled landscape with a full backpack of trades.

                      Alternatively, he may close the trades reboot...

                      This increase in volatility will offer a serious opportunity for Jay to make pips, but that potential could be strangled if we're still holding this huge basked of hedged positions.

                      He's holding off making any decisions for the next 48hrs in an effort to find some clarity in the market, but I wanted to make sure you guys were aware of what's happening in the background.

                      IF he does end up closing the trades AND the volatility continues, he's expecting to get us back up to equity high's within 6 months.


                      Hello

                      If Jay think to close ALL the basket, we need to know before he will do.
                      In this case, I prefer to manage the DD by myself.

                      Envoyé de mon GT-I9505 en utilisant Tapatalk

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                      • Well closing all the positions is not the way a good trader would react, if he was thinking to close all the positions why he created such a big basket, if he chose to close than this strategy will not be very interesting on my side yes risk is involved, but for a trader like Jay this is the point where he is separated from the rest of us in this regard, so I would highly expect him to navigate us through this complex situation as he used to do it.

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                        • Originally posted by artooks
                          Well closing all the positions is not the way a good trader would react, if he was thinking to close all the positions why he created such a big basket, if he chose to close than this strategy will not be very interesting on my side yes risk is involved, but for a trader like Jay this is the point where he is separated from the rest of us in this regard, so I would highly expect him to navigate us through this complex situation as he used to do it.
                          Completely disagree with this statement. Even the best traders have losing baskets. It is a part of trading. It is how you manage risk which is the benchmark of a great trader.

                          I remember Day Fox. He bought at top and bottom hoping it would go one way and all that happened is that it ranged. He added more and more positions to expediate an out and went belly up.

                          I have been on here for a lot of years and seen the same mistake play out over and over again.

                          Jay is a great trader. Even the great traders get it wrong sometimes.

                          Like I said before, good luck Jay. Capital preservation is everything. You can't trade with zero balance.

                          Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

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                          • WTF, this is precisely how investors trying to force signal provider to take excessive risk and get wiped out!

                            If Steady decided to close this trade and take the loss, simply because he doesn't have the confidence which direction the pair is going anymore.

                            WHY CANT YOU GUYS LET HIM CLOSE IT and MOVE ON! YOU EXPECT HIM TO GAMBLE? FOR YOU? Why not you just withdraw you funds, go casino and gamble yourself!


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                            • FX is great, you get so many life lessons.
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                              • The trader is in charge and we pay him to do our job. If we want to do it ourselves, than do it. Disconnect the EA and trade on your own or revoke LPOA. The loss is already made so whatever the decision the result will probably be about the same. If we close we don't pay swaps if he continues we pay swaps... Equity is almost the same in both cases...
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