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  • Originally posted by Kavka View Post

    Reality is that , an exstremely small % who make money directly from trading ...The winners in trading selling cources offer monthly fee for some services ..
    He lost 15k, paying monthly fees is the least of his concerns. Anyone will pay a monthly fee given that results exceed the costs. I dont agree that there is an extremely small percentage of traders that make money. 25% are making money more or less. Its not a lot but its definitely not small.

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    • Originally posted by Tame788 View Post

      25% are making money more or less. Its not a lot but its definitely not small.
      Wrong. Brokers and traders at prop firms will tell you that approximately somewhere between 1% to 3% become consistently profitable. From my own anecdotal experience of observing signals for 3 years it sounds about right to me. If you believe 25% of the current signals will be profitable 2 years from now then you are totally naive,

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      • Yup it's really hard to find track record of 5+ years. I wold say that most who trade long term are in small profit or at break even. So those who can make 20+% year in year out are true miracles ...

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        • Originally posted by Mike O View Post

          Wrong. Brokers and traders at prop firms will tell you that approximately somewhere between 1% to 3% become consistently profitable. From my own anecdotal experience of observing signals for 3 years it sounds about right to me. If you believe 25% of the current signals will be profitable 2 years from now then you are totally naive,
          The FCA analyzed 5 European CFD brokers last year. Based on their findings 25% of traders were making money. You can look up the results of their analysis online, it was published to the public. Yes, its not forex but it is making money from trading. If you have any sources to back up that only 1% - 3% make money please share them.

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          • Originally posted by Tame788 View Post

            The FCA analyzed 5 European CFD brokers last year. Based on their findings 25% of traders were making money. You can look up the results of their analysis online, it was published to the public. Yes, its not forex but it is making money from trading. If you have any sources to back up that only 1% - 3% make money please share them.
            So 25% were profitable in one year. That include traders who barely make 1% profit. Then consider how many of those are still profitable 5, 10, 15, 30 years from now. Then consider how many are consistently profitable enough to live on their trading as a single source of income. It cuts that 25% down by an order of magnitude at least.

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            • Originally posted by oportunis View Post
              Yup it's really hard to find track record of 5+ years. I wold say that most who trade long term are in small profit or at break even. So those who can make 20+% year in year out are true miracles ...

              Well, if you cant find them selling signals, it doesnt mean they dont exsist or that they are rare. In fact in the last year or so the level of trading has really gone up and better traders are emerging than ever before. At least that has been my experience.

              Still, really top tier traders with 2+ years track record are scarse and almost impossible to find but I guess it all depends on what one considers top tier. For me a top tier trading is avg monthly profit vs max DD at 1:3 at the most , no scalping, no martingale or grid and 2+ years track record. So far I have been able to find only 1 system that matches my requirements and a few that are very close to it.

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              • I can find a lot of 2+year track record traders, I was talking 5+ years... And if we want to look for true traders that live of trading, we should be looking at 10+ years of track record and min. 5 million AUM and such traders I haven't found yet... This is if you want to compare Forex trading to hedge fund. And to be honest even hedge funds don't last 10+ years... Mostly they are merged so one with old history and under-performance is joined with a newer fund and so on, to continue the circle... There are plenty of MAM, PAM, signals but they don't last long. SteadyCapture with history from Zulu is one of the longest on the market right now and I hope he will stay profitable for a few more years. The potential problem I see here is that this is based only on one person and there is no solution once Jay retires, or just says I have enough and quits...

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                • Originally posted by oportunis View Post
                  I can find a lot of 2+year track record traders, I was talking 5+ years... And if we want to look for true traders that live of trading, we should be looking at 10+ years of track record and min. 5 million AUM and such traders I haven't found yet... This is if you want to compare Forex trading to hedge fund. And to be honest even hedge funds don't last 10+ years... Mostly they are merged so one with old history and under-performance is joined with a newer fund and so on, to continue the circle... There are plenty of MAM, PAM, signals but they don't last long. SteadyCapture with history from Zulu is one of the longest on the market right now and I hope he will stay profitable for a few more years. The potential problem I see here is that this is based only on one person and there is no solution once Jay retires, or just says I have enough and quits...
                  You can find accounts with 2+ years and all the other parameters I mentioned? Can you send me the links?

                  I dont think you need 5+ years track record to assess the system, 2 years is enough. SteadyCapture doesnt fit none of my criteria exept for the longevity. Everything else is bad from calmar ratio to the system philosophy of holding and hoping.

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                  • Looks like Jay is back trading again. Let the recovery begin.

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                    • Originally posted by Mike O View Post

                      So 25% were profitable in one year. That include traders who barely make 1% profit. Then consider how many of those are still profitable 5, 10, 15, 30 years from now. Then consider how many are consistently profitable enough to live on their trading as a single source of income. It cuts that 25% down by an order of magnitude at least.
                      I dont remember it was only for one year. There is no real evidence to support what you said aside your experience and assumptions. 5 brokers is definitely not enough but its something. You can also look up the US brokers reports, you will see that it supports what I wrote.

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                      • Originally posted by Tame788 View Post
                        There is no real evidence to support what you said aside your experience and assumptions.
                        This is very common knowledge in the trading business and you're showing your lack of experience. 25% of traders consistently profitable and earning a living as a career? No one in this forum would agree with you.

                        A good place for you to start learning would be to read the Market Wizards series of books, and listen to hundreds of interviews with traders and fund managers at ChatWithTraders.com (some of whom have worked at or started the best prop trading firms and hedge funds in the world)

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                        • Originally posted by Tame788 View Post

                          I dont remember it was only for one year. There is no real evidence to support what you said aside your experience and assumptions. 5 brokers is definitely not enough but its something. You can also look up the US brokers reports, you will see that it supports what I wrote.
                          https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/od...g%20110217.pdf

                          On page 17: "...From column 8, we can calculate that these predictably profitable traders constitute less than 3% of all day traders on an average day."

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                          • Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
                            Looks like Jay is back trading again. Let the recovery begin.
                            Thank you Big River Man. Onwards and Upwards !

                            Speaking of stats and benchmarks. Here are some links that are interesting to put it all in a bigger perspective re expectations from the market.
                            Barclay's Currency Traders Index. and the S&P 500


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                            • Originally posted by Mike O View Post

                              https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/od...g%20110217.pdf

                              On page 17: "...From column 8, we can calculate that these predictably profitable traders constitute less than 3% of all day traders on an average day."
                              This paper you quoted was published in 2011, thats 7 years ago. Its outdated. The FCA analysis was in 2017 so its probably more accurate. I know you find it hard to believe but the numbers speak for themselves.

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                              • Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
                                Looks like Jay is back trading again. Let the recovery begin.
                                I agree, really happy to see the first trade go through

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