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  • Originally posted by oportunis View Post
    He is paid on equity HWM not balance, so it doesn't matter if he closed trades or hedged them, because equity is the same in both cases...

    So now we are about 440 pips to BE after sell trades closed in profit
    Thats why I said im not talking about SC.

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    • Hey guys,

      Confirming I came good on my promise having deposited $80,000 into a live account earlier this week with the intention of riding this recovery wave.

      It swung down a few thousand initially, but I'm pleased to see the account is now up about $1,500

      You can see a screenshot of my account here: https://charts.mql5.com/17/403/gbpus...-limited-2.png
      Click here to check out the most popular forex channel on YouTube

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      • Was the closure of the last buy GU trade a mistake or part of the strategy?

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        • Steadycapture is closing positions as per his strict trading methodology and in line with the evolving price action and macro themes on Cable.

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          • Originally posted by cris47 View Post
            Was the closure of the last buy GU trade a mistake or part of the strategy?
            Yes, it's part of the strategy.

            He's trimming the size of the basket whenever he can to get us back on track.
            Click here to check out the most popular forex channel on YouTube

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            • Originally posted by Nick View Post
              Hey guys,

              Confirming I came good on my promise having deposited $80,000 into a live account earlier this week with the intention of riding this recovery wave.

              It swung down a few thousand initially, but I'm pleased to see the account is now up about $1,500

              You can see a screenshot of my account here: https://charts.mql5.com/17/403/gbpus...-limited-2.png
              Hi Nick is your buy/sell ratio still in tact with the added funds?

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              • Originally posted by Big River Man View Post

                Hi Nick is your buy/sell ratio still in tact with the added funds?
                Yeah, I set it up using SimpleTrader and set my slippage to 1000 to make sure I got every trade in correct proportion.

                May the recovery continue
                Click here to check out the most popular forex channel on YouTube

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                • Comment


                  • Please bear in min that we lost 0.15% balance. So in fact it's worse than last week. 12.89+0.15=13.04 vs 12.98

                    Still it looks like he is actively trading so that positive. It would be nice to take some wins in both directions so that balance actually goes up if DD stays similar. Otherwise with compounded monthly growth of 1.3% the recovery just won't happen anytime soon unfortunately. Thing is that Steady IS a good trader and i am entirely comfortable that he is the one in drawdown (and i am not in charge - that being said he's played it all wrong but at least he's had the balls to come on here and admit as much and has a plan of attack - yet i am hoping for some positive balance to happen AS WELL as some reduction in drawdown otherwise this shizz will go on all year). I have tried to trade around it but if i am honest I messed it up as wasn't expect that GBP crazy strength.

                    I know he talked about some Gold trades to recover. But that in itself poses potential answers but also potential questions.

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                    • Nick, the link in your first post that directs US clients to join the FX Choice Managed Account is dead.

                      It now takes you to a page that says the following:

                      Sorry, you are not authorized to view this page.
                      Please try logging in or logging in as different user Login or send a message to the admin
                      LL

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                      • Originally posted by Big River Man View Post

                        Otherwise with compounded monthly growth of 1.3% the recovery just won't happen anytime soon unfortunately. ...
                        Jay said that he is hoping to recover all the losses within 2 months. We will see. It's crazy that he wiped out a year of gains in one trade.

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                        • Comment


                          • This week proceeded largely as expected through Thursday. Friday's NFPs drive a lot of extra participation and are impossible to predict but it could've gone either way and I don't view the end result as a bad thing. Most importantly price action was speaking loud and clear and made a lot of sense this week.

                            Perhaps the best way to illustrate it would be to point out the major difference between Friday's price action versus what we've been used to for many years. Historically when the US stock market tanks we're used to seeing bonds rally. This relationship was ironclad for many, many years - decades in fact. Friday saw a significant US stock market correction with the US dollar making as much headway as it could, the big difference was the massive sell off in bonds. In fact it was happening all week. Even the month end re-balancing flows could barely etch out a few upticks in the bond space this week. The market is unequivocally speaking loudly that the US bond market is now in a cyclical bear market and the dynamic behavior we were used to for 30 some years has changed.

                            This explains a lot and consequently price action makes complete sense. The simplest way to explain it is to think of all that bond money from the world's largest reserve currency - the US dollar. It has to go somewhere. That market dwarfs the US stock market capitalization or any other market worldwide. Those guys simply aren't interested in buying more US bonds. Even if they wanted to buy all US stocks the market is just too small to absorb all that money, not to mention the risk. That is why money is leaking out into non-US currencies, it just has to go somewhere and as expectations differ the old dynamics change. The new normal of a US bond market in bear behavior means that various assets in the other major currencies now look like much 'taller midgets' to all those long term holders of US bonds. Especially the British Pound which on a 35 year scale looks like it is on a massive sale because of recent politics and explains why the GBP forwards have been priced so aggressively higher. This is a large scale macro dynamic shift. Just this week in fact the so called US "bond king" Bill Gross confirmed as much stating that he sees the US dollar being weak for some time. This guy gets it.

                            A poster child this week for this effect would be the EURUSD - the world's second most used currency. It ended the week positive and had a very difficult time staying lower even with the NFP flows on Friday. This makes sense considering the EURUSD forwards market and the fact that the big volatility event of the recent ECB meeting is behind us. That is the big difference with GBP, AUD, and NZD which all closed near the Friday lows. They all have central bank meetings next week which are volatility events. I've gotten used to the pattern of institutional flows and how they treat events like that, especially when the other market participants are willing to push a currency the opposite direction. They like to let the market push against them leading up to such an event so that when the bigger volumes hit they can fill their orders en masse without moving the price up too much from their point of view. And believe me they do have huge orders to fill. Not to mention their own low risk short USD trades piggy backing through the forwards market.

                            This is why I don't view the NFP flows on Friday as a bad thing, it will create opportunity that may end up paying off more in the end. I now know where many of the large Forwards are priced and am watching all the relevant bond yields like a hawk. Price action made a lot of sense this week now that the macro picture is clear. In fact the US bond prices moved down this week as much as they did in the previous 3 or 4 combined, so as that money clears to large accounts next week it's going to start looking for places to go. All the pressure pushing USD lower through the last 6 weeks in the spot and forwards market is about to get a lot more company with all this new bond money floating around looking for a home... with significant amounts inevitably leaking into other currencies.

                            What am I expecting next week?

                            It will likely be volatile again. Knowing the pattern of institutional flows I think it likely that GBPUSD and AUDUSD will probe downside early in the week. In fact I have some shorts I'm hoping to close on this move. I will have to choose my spots of course and allow for movement as we get through the volatility events of the corresponding central bank meetings but the overall short USD bias will not change. After the meetings are over USD downside probing should continue though it is not likely to climax yet. It would take a huge macro development to change this but price action has been speaking so clearly that if something important changes it should be well telegraphed by the market and easy to spot so I'm not worried.

                            I'm giving a little deeper explanation because I know that DD and volatility can be uncomfortable for some. Especially if it's not understood. I'm not trying to pull off a hero move here and I know I can't make it all back in this trade. I know that I walked into an unforeseen ambush to start the year and deserve a haircut for it but there is a reasonable amount of recovery to be made managing this short USD biased trade at a reasonable size. At some point I should be able to lock things down tighter and amp down the volatility for the continuation on to equity highs.

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                            • Thank you very much SC for this detailed explanation, I thought we were going to get out of this without a hair cut, so does this mean that at some point we will have realize some of the losses we have ? because previously it was said that the recovery will happen in 2 months time without any losses, so could you please make this clear please.

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                              • Its all about the equity... so realizing a loss or staying locked in the hedge doesnt make any difference. Jay still has to make new profitable trades which would get us somehow back. Thinking of making 15% within 2 months is surely unrealistic with the 1% monthly average yield.

                                In the meanwhile AUD longs being hedged. Same as longs on cable... At least the balance line on the chart looks pretty... oh dear.
                                Last edited by ales; 02-05-2018, 08:55 PM.

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