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  • Not that's any of my business but I have a sneaking suspicion that fxtradefx and georgTT are somehow related.

    Unrelated to the first my second point is that if you're predicting correction long enough at some point you will be right. That's not that hard to do. Getting the exact timing and extent of the correction right is something completely different.

    On this note I would like to predict rain. It should be clear to anyone with a bit of brain that this drought is now way overextended. So stop wearing your swimming shorts and hitting the beach folks. Yes the weather is still nice but forget it, the rain is coming!

    I'll happily quote myself in a few weeks' time when that rain finally comes and brag how right I was the whole time.

    Try to relax briefly and enjoy this weekend and see you all on monday in another fight.

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    • I have mixed feelings about all this.

      I think that Jay knows a lot about markets and what moves them, but i'm not sure if that makes him a "world class" trader. So many market analysts fail when it comes to trading.

      But i agree with what georgTT is basically saying, the biggest problem is the risk/reward ratio of these kind of strategies.

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      • People are misunderstanding what the angry complainers are complaining about.

        The complainers are pissed off with the risk management. This issue is separate from technical/fundamental analysis. Risk management has nothing to do with predicting the direction of price movement.

        A risk management strategy that risks one year of profit in one trade idea is very dangerous. That part of the strategy was never communicated to investors upfront. You are asking for trouble in this forum when it inevitably occurs. It also raises the question: does the system actually have a clearly defined risk management strategy?

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        • Originally posted by Mike O View Post
          A risk management strategy that risks one year of profit in one trade idea is very dangerous. That part of the strategy was never communicated to investors upfront.
          I wouldn't exactly call it dangerous but I completely agree it's far from what you'd want. Trouble is we're here for signals (or managed accounts) and all we can do is choose between what is on offer. We can moan and b***h and demand better stuff but at the end of the day if we want to get involved we have to take something they're offering.

          Not sure about that part not being communicated to investors upfront. Max DD is always known (and known to be exceeded as a rule by every single signal that ever got in trouble and they all get in trouble - SC is maybe an exception so far but I'm not betting the farm on it) and when it hits it's most likely going to be because of the single trading idea or as close as it makes no difference. Or maybe I should say at least we old timers know what we're buying even if it's not communicated upfront.

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          • Originally posted by primi View Post

            I wouldn't exactly call it dangerous ..
            LOL. If risking an entire year of profit in one trade isn't dangerous by your standards, then what is dangerous to you? Risking 100% equity in one trade? Crazy shit!

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            • I wouldnt' call it dangerous that's all. Stupid maybe, irresponsible or something like that perhaps. Dangerous in my book is what Tony did when he thought he could trade SNB meltup.

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              • Originally posted by primi
                I wouldnt' call it dangerous that's all. Stupid maybe, irresponsible or something like that perhaps. Dangerous in my book is what Tony did when he thought he could trade SNB meltup.
                My concern is the risk/reward. He had a trade the other day usdjpy with approximately tp of 20 pips and a stop loss of 400 odd pips. This to me is a grid / averaging in / martingale. Risky stuff for a few pips and this sort of trading is going to see us in the same predicament in the near future

                Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

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                • Well, these are the type of situations where everyone's true colors, true lives, and true priorities come out for all to see. I have traded for almost 15 years now, and what continues to humble me most is that one must come to the markets each day with precision, robot-like emotions, and a belief that you can understand the market psychology as a composite.
                  I know the errors that have been made here, because I have made them myself. I hear truth on both sides of the coin here.
                  But you know what the most important thing is??
                  How hungry are you? How hungry is Jay? And how much skill has he displayed in the past given similar circumstances? Well only one such occasion has happened before, and at that time Jay wasn't managing 20 million dollars in a fund, as I believe he was just a signal provider at Zulu.
                  This market is not for wimps. You want the power to beat the average returns out there on Low Risk investments????
                  Then you have to be ready for higher risks. That is just the pill you must swallow.
                  That is what I accepted in June and July 2017 when I decided it was time to offer a signal and a fund. But it does multiply your responsibility when more than 100 people lose when you lose. And in Jay's case, I guess that number is more like 500 people I would imagine.
                  If you can't handle risk and that risk pre-stated, then go back to buying a stock index, a rental property, HSBC paper gold, or something along those lines.

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                  • Originally posted by georgTT

                    Dow and SC has nothing to do with each other. Its a completely different thing. You apparently know nothing so its pointless to debate you. I always marvel at people who feel the need to chime in when they dont have a clue about the topic and make fools of themselves and you are a prime example.
                    You are right, all we in this topic are too stupid to talk with you. Why are you still here?

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                    • Originally posted by finanzaonline View Post

                      You are right, all we in this topic are too stupid to talk with you. Why are you still here?
                      Its just you...

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                      • Originally posted by oportunis View Post
                        Why? Than we are exposed. He should reduce shorts and add more longs so he can close at BE if it moves up and breaks previous high.
                        I asked because the only reason I can fathom for current hedge is to close the Longs / BE or slight loss, then wait for the correction and close the shorts at BE / loss.

                        If the plan is to add more positions, just close the damn hedge now. The hedge serves no purpose whatsoever - except to pretend the balance line is higher that it really is ????

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                        • yeah really hoping for a bit more activity than a single USDJPY trade with 0.07% profit. Also like Westie said do we try to close out GU longs where they were on Thursday and try to off load sells lower. Who knows but it would be nice to know if there is a plan with the current hedges. I mean if Jay made 0.70% this week then that would be different. But 0.07% just aint gonna cut it. Why d we have to wait until end of march for this Gold strategy??!?!?! Needless to say I think the investors want more activity and more hunger to make a dent in this drawdown otherwise what is the point. Realistically need to be making 1% a week for the next 3 months. So far we are 0.93% behind......maybe we cna make 2% this week (yes I know weekly goals are stupid - BUT there needs to be some form of GOAL otherwise it's just treading water). There have been PLENTY of trading opportunities this week. This is like watching paint dry except instead of drying it's just peeling off!!

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                          • I totally agree

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                            • Repost of comment I made that I accidently deleted a minute ago by "editing the comment" (yes, I've noticed whenever I edit a comment it automatically gets marked as spam and deleted. There is an issue with editing posts on this forum... it sets off the spam filter....

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                              • It really doesnt matter where Jay closes which side of the hedge. Must be on a level where he thinks it good to go long or short. Waiting for b/e on either side doesnt mean anything. Every further trade has to be considered individualy with clear and planned entry, stop and take profit level.

                                At least its now obvious what hedging really brings. Balance line on the chart doesnt mean anything at all.



                                Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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