I welcome any comments and my current live positions are long in USDCAD and USDJPY. In my world of trading, I am all about the fundamental process as most traders do not give it any thought. I am the quiet type at least here on this site as my main work is my main passion besides my family. During this pandemic and being at home, I can trade a little more and share a few ideas or thoughts. All and everything here is not meant to cause anyone to make a trade but just to give some perspective on my views and why I trade and post the way I do. I will admit I could do much better with many technical systems added or implemented so that is why I enjoy the reading and learning in this room. I have much to learn but enjoy FX trading as just a secondary way to fund my personal habits and enjoyments in life without distracting from my wife and my main goals of low and slower compounding gains so no real money of mine or hers ever goes into forex. We own and operate a small company here in Arizona, USA so 90 hrs a week is devoted to that but I love to trade and only do it less than part-time or it can be consuming and distracting for me for my main money and enjoyments in life. Living in the USA my FX brokers are very limited but Oanda is one of the best in the entire FX market and mainly for their news feeds and live data on the position being held. I also have LMFX but since that is basically not legal for me, I keep only minimal dollars with them and do not use that account much. First, I despise MT4 so I only use it for setups and sometimes visuals and to post trades here but I use FX Trade desktop as that is one of the best out there at least for me and my simple mind. So let me explain a few things that are going on and it will get very ugly in the oil markets and nice in the USD value. USD = DXY so do some research on the training correlation of DXY and forex pairs if you have no clue. It is the heartbeat of all you are doing in FX. In bad world conditions or economic world problems like now, that cause oil to drop will cause DXY to go up as a safe heaven. ( remember DXY = USD index) It would be very rare to see the DXY drop and oil drop unless the stock market was very strong and if it was strong then oil would be at least stable and in demand. Neither is happening and has never happened like this before. Back to oil. USA has no place to store it yet we have purchased oil based just on the demand way before this pandemic. So now we are faced with not buying what we paid for or returning it and paying a large amount or just take a big loss. Back in March/April oil contracts went negative and we will have the same at the end of May/June where the oil contracts will not be fulfilled. Think about it this way. It is like buying a package from Amazon then realizing it will not fit in your house and then paying the UPS guy who delivered it to hold it at big costs to you. See this video or search on Youtube for tanker storage. It will blow your mind and put this into perspective. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rmOLnTTsgEOil tankers line up for miles off the coast of California as 'floating storage'. So if you are looking to buy oil I would think about only selling oil as it has nowhere to go but down. The USA is not an oil country so it has minimal effect on our economy or GDP in the way it has on Canada or other producing oil countries. CAD value will not go up until oil is back to being used and when it will positively help their GDP. CAD will soon be shutting down or slowing down all pumping of oil since they can't sell it. Texas and all oil-producing states here in the USA and all refineries here in the USA are almost all shutting down to minimal production just to keep the pumps from stopping as that will be a bigger issue to get them started back up. The USA is not part of OPEC so we really do not care but we have a stupid president who thinks he does. We are just stupid for just recently buying foreign oil and not our own so we deserve this problem of buying too much oil. So my analysis with Oil and USD/CAD is this will hit a high of 1.4250 then onto 1.45 and you will understand my further reasonings on the next part with the US Dollar or DXY. Same with USD/RUB should go back to its recent highs but I don't trade that pair.------------------- So next is to learn this major part ----------------- The DXY will not or cannot fall so you must get that part in your head and make it stick. DXY will hold at 98.50 and not drop beyond that much if at all. It will stay in that range and higher. Oil will only drop along with the DOW / US markets. I predict the DXY to hit 102 here soon and the DOW at 22,500 or lower. The US stock markets will fall until companies can show positive earnings so we have nowhere to go with that except down. Think about it and be smart. The DOW was at 30,000 before this and last week we almost hit 25,000 and that is less than 20% off the highs before all of this pandemic and we are much more than 20% off in incomes or revenues and sales so it will correct until things change for the better. The FEDs are buying all bonds and junk bonds to try to keep the stock market up as well as the DXY. Remember the DXY is the US Dollar. The stock market cant stay up but buying all bonds will keep the dollar up or not fall until this program is over with. With our Orange idiot president, he is persistent to keep all financials up as it is his only way to get reelected so until November I expect the fed to keep buying up until we can't any longer. With my news feeds and great data I get from Oanda it helps in determining a key position. Read these news wires and my video on this I get live from Oanda and others that are essential in making proper decisions and not just based on technical analysis. You need to know where the US Dollar is going as it makes a change with every single pair out there. ------- Treasury Yields Are Supported by Borrowing Binge Fri May 01 17:06:00 2020By Sam Goldfarb U.S. government bond prices edged lower Friday even as stocks fell sharply, a sign that some demand for Treasurys was being soaked up by a record-setting influx of new debt into the market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled at 0.641%, according to Tradeweb, compared with 0.619% Thursday. Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, as the S&P 500 dropped 2.8% -- a break from the typical pattern in which stock declines fuel demand for safer assets and gains in Treasurys. One factor that analysts say has kept yields from dropping lower this week has been the large number of new bonds that investors can buy. Companies last month sold more than $227billion of investment-grade corporate bonds in the U.S. market, breaking the previous record of $194 billion set a month earlier, according to Dealogic. The boom in issuance was capped Thursday when Boeing Co. sold $25 billion of bonds, more than $16billion of which carried maturities of 10 years or more. The corporate bond sales-- which have been fueled by businesses trying to raise cash so they can weather disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic -- have come as the Treasury Department has also boosted debt auctions to fund a ballooning federal budget deficit. Though the bulk of its borrowing has come in the form of short-term bills that mature in one year or less, the department has also increased the size of its longer-term debt sales and is expected to announce plans to issue more longer-term debt in its quarterly refunding statement next week. Increases in corporate and government bond sales can lift Treasury yields, due to supply-demand dynamics, as fixed-income investors have more options to choose from. Pushing in the opposite direction, the Federal Reserve has been buying large amounts of Treasurys --and has promised to buy corporate bonds -- as part of its efforts to help the economy and improve liquidity in the market. The central bank, however, hasn't been buying as many longer-term bonds as some had expected, and it passed on an opportunity this week to announce a shift in its strategy. Not including inflation-protected securities, roughly 61% of the Treasurys the Fed has bought since March have carried maturities of five years or less, according to NatWestMarkets. That compares with just 14% for the same category of bonds in the last stage of the Fed's previous bond-buying program -- known on Wall Street as quantitative-easing or QE -- that followed the 2008 financial crisis. Heading into the Fed'spolicy meeting on Wednesday, there had been some expectation that the central bank "would announce a more normal plan and that that would look something more akin to past QEs," said John Briggs, head of America's strategy at NatWest. The Fed's decision not to do that, coupled with the heavy supply of new bonds, has been a drag on Treasurys, he added.Write to Sam Goldfarb email@example.com(END) Dow JonesNewswiresMay 01, 2020 17:06 ET(21:06 GMT)
Break Close Retest
Wait for Break close and retest of the trendline for confirmation to the down side. EJ has failed to break above the 50% pullback of the previous momentum downward. Also this level corresponds to a major daily resistance. With market sentiment in risk off mood, the bias is there to the downside to the TP of 122.400. Nice risk to reward ratio. Good luck guys.
Possible Naked Trade
See the instructions on the chart. Nice risk to reward ratio. MArket sentiment risk off should support this trade in term of directional bias. There is a TP2 @ 112.200 if TP1 is hit, I will be placing my SL at TP 1. Good luck
Break Close Retest
Possible Naked Trade