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Where is GBP headed?

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  • Where is GBP headed?

    Hi folks, I would appreciate some feedback with regards to where people feel GBP is going in the fairly short term. In particular GBPAUD. Reason is I have an account with Axi which is in AUD and want to change it to GBP. Missed the boat on it a couple of weeks ago and its risen over 1300 pips since. So is it likely to fall again, or continue to rise, in light of anticipated UK involvement in Syria/Iraq? All speculation I know but if anybody out there trades this pair I'm interested in your opinion

  • #2
    Hard to say. But if you'd put a gun to my head I'd say gbpaud up. But be careful. Today we saw a text book risk-off day. If it cools down quickly a pullback is possible.

    While Carney talks about rate hike and Scots are not splitting (GBP+) the AUD is under pressure due to the commodity->USD flows (AUD-). Also US core durable goods orders came out positive and overall US data seem to be be ok at the moment and rate hike expectations supports the dollar (USD+). So the rather logical conclusion is gbpaud up.
    Last edited by pta; 09-25-2014, 09:44 PM.


    • #3
      Thanks for the info. I need to move the money fairly quickly so wont really have too much choice anyway. thanks again


      • #4
        Id like to know where the GBPUSD is forecasted to go, cant find solid info on any expectations.


        • #5
          Originally posted by The Hobbit View Post
          Thanks for the info. I need to move the money fairly quickly so wont really have too much choice anyway. thanks again
          Sure, no problem.


          • #6
            Originally posted by Waleed121 View Post
            Id like to know where the GBPUSD is forecasted to go, cant find solid info on any expectations.
            Hi, that's because the picture of UK isn't clear too. On one hand you have the Scottish referendum event still echoing, which caused some unpredictable volatility in GBP caused by mixture of fear and uncertainty about what will happen to the UK if the Scotland leaves the union. On the other hand BoE's Carney said the UK will probably be one of the first economies hiking interest rates which causes interest rates differential expectations (and pricing-in of the event). But the other economy expected to hike interest rates is the USA. So for the GBPUSD it's in fact a competitive situation: Will the US be the first to hike rates? Then it's GBPUSD down. Is the UK the first to hike rates? Then it's GBPUSD up (talking about months ahead - not an intraday noise). During the little chaos around the time of Scottish referendum, there were some good macro data for the UK (completely ignored, because there was much bigger fish to fry - the referendum) which plays for the 'sooner than later' interest rates hike. But the same evaluation of pros and cons goes on on the other side of the ocean, in USA.
            At the moment the USD is the dominating currency, appreciating because of this massive expectations of rate hike in the spring 2015. From this point of view the GBPUSD has no clear trend in my opinion in the comming months. It's gonna be a wide-range game if the US or UK macro data don't disappoint significantly to disqualify the respective economy from the race for higher interest rates. So it's all gonna be over-sensitive to economic data.

            No forecast Im afraid


            • #7

     we are in a risk-off mode, where stocks are falling, yen is going up and the dollar down. First sign came last Thursday. Blame the stream of underperforming US data. Sure, there are still USD bulls out there but clearly the case of "FED rising rates sooner than later" lost a bit of it's shine. After all, the multi-month USD buying needs some spacetime to pause and test the resilience of the USD bulls in the actual economic and geopolitical context.

              USDJPY 110 tested several times during the week and met with selling pressure every single time. So unless there's some stellar data performance on the US side or a BoJ injection, there's little chance we're going any higher anytime soon (watch your open yen pairs trades if you've got any).

              Today's Draghi said virtually nothing new. So we're at mercy of the macro data stream which continues tomorrow with European Services PMIs and Retail Sales and US unemployment and ISM non-manuf. PMI.
              Expect a rather dragging asian and european sessions due to the Chinese and German bank holiday tomorrow. The Chinese resume trading on Wednessday.

              So all the USD pairs are going to jump up and down in sympathy with US good/not-good data and if the risk-off keeps biting, the USD correction can be pretty big


              • #8
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                • #9
                  Will try, tnx