Silent Specialist

[Sushi85]

Did you manually exit 3 positions , Nick ?

[Sushi85]

I use this just as an example to advise people to have a look at their present situation . No criticism of Nick at all .

[Nick]

Yes... this sux.

But it's not completely unexpected. As I've said from the start, this was always extremely high risk, high return trading.

The problem is that most of us have only just joined so we've missed out on the returns...

You should have only been trading this on a small account that you can afford to lose. The goal wasn't to become millionaires with this signal, it was to make some extra spending money.

I also want to confirm that nobody has paid for this signal yet (everyone is still on the free trial) so there is no conspiracy going on. It's just really bad luck.

I'm actually backing Silent Specialist to dig himself out of this drawdown. But he might also blow the account, who knows... Whatever happens it's not going to ruin me because it's only on a smallish account. Hopefully most of you have adopted a similar attitude.

[Sushi85]

yes , Kenji . 68.6% DD on that play . You are right .

The -45% is for his initial deposit . So he has about 55% of his initial capital . $550 out of $1000 . If he loses another $550 on that play , he will get a margin call

[Kenji]

Guys , careful here . Nick is at -45% . Margin call could come soon

Is this Nick's page? Silent Specialist - Nick's Account - LiveForexTrading.info System | Myfxbook

His Balance is: A$1748.73
His open trades now: A$1199.67
His DD should be A$1199.67/A$1748.73= 68.6%

Or is it calculated this way?....

His Deposit is: A$1000
His open trades now: A$1199.67
His DD should be A$1199.67/A$1000= 119.967%

[Kenji]

What is drawdown?

A DRAWDOWN is a percentage of an account which could be lost in the case when there is a streak of losing trades. It is a measure of the largest loss that a trader's account can expect to have at any given moment or period of time.

(Streak of losing trades or a LOSING STREAK - a period of consecutive losses with no profitable trades.)

You'll see the term "drawdown" being used when describing a trading system. Before trusting any particular system, a trader wants to know what is the largest loss he can face when he starts taking losses due to changes on the market that would lead to a temporary worsening of a performance of a trading system.

For example, if a trader put $5000 to trade with and later he has lost $2500. This would be 50% drawdown.

Another example: you may hear that a trading system is 80% profitable, (which would logically mean that the remaining 20% of the time will produce losses). What a trader cannot predict is in what sequence the profits and losses will come... Will it be 8 consecutive profitable and 2 losing trades every time? Will it be 10 consecutive losing trades and then 3 profitable, and then 5 losing and then 15 profitable? It is impossible to tell in advance. However, by testing a system, a trader can look back ad find the largest period of losing trades - the largest losing streak - this is what would be called a MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN for a particular system, and this is what a trader should be prepared to.

Thanks for explaining. So, based on what you say, a trading system can manipulate its DD reflected, no? For example....

Initially
------
Deposit Capital: $10,000
Streak of Loss Trades: $5,000
DD Calculation: $5,000/$10,000 = 50%

Later
-----
Increase Deposit Capital by $15,000
Total Final Deposit Capital: $20,000 (after deducting the loss of $5,000)
DD Calculation will become 25%, instead of 50%

No? Yes?

PS: On SS Signal promo page, the DD is fixed at 33.66% How come?

[Sushi85]

Guys , careful here . Nick is at -45% . Margin call could come soon

[Sushi85]

Storm III and ForexMeister were of similar style and blew up very quickly . Sad that traders change style when they go live

[Sushi85]

SS promised to stick to 50% DD . So at 7768 usd in his account , he should have stopped when the loss was 3884 usd (7768/2 ) but he didn't . He didn't either on the NZDUSD . At 62.37% DD , he was still in that NZDUSD trade .

[Sushi85]

What is drawdown?

A DRAWDOWN is a percentage of an account which could be lost in the case when there is a streak of losing trades. It is a measure of the largest loss that a trader's account can expect to have at any given moment or period of time.

(Streak of losing trades or a LOSING STREAK - a period of consecutive losses with no profitable trades.)

You'll see the term "drawdown" being used when describing a trading system. Before trusting any particular system, a trader wants to know what is the largest loss he can face when he starts taking losses due to changes on the market that would lead to a temporary worsening of a performance of a trading system.

For example, if a trader put $5000 to trade with and later he has lost $2500. This would be 50% drawdown.

Another example: you may hear that a trading system is 80% profitable, (which would logically mean that the remaining 20% of the time will produce losses). What a trader cannot predict is in what sequence the profits and losses will come... Will it be 8 consecutive profitable and 2 losing trades every time? Will it be 10 consecutive losing trades and then 3 profitable, and then 5 losing and then 15 profitable? It is impossible to tell in advance. However, by testing a system, a trader can look back ad find the largest period of losing trades - the largest losing streak - this is what would be called a MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN for a particular system, and this is what a trader should be prepared to.

[Kenji]

For the DD , I think that the promo page takes the DD at the closing price while MyFxBook takes the worse DD we hit during the trade . These 2 figures relate to the NZDUSD of 17/10-18/10 .

Can you help to explain the definition of DD? I've been hearing DD the phrase being tossed around very often, but what formula and definition best describe DD?

Quite a few traders just throw terms which they hardly understand and mis-communication occurs.

[cris47]

seems that the price retraced till 76.4% Fib and is going up again. I don't understand what keeps him from closing the basket.
Only if he kept his initial idea of taking a brake from trading till Wednesday...

[Sushi85]

For the DD , I think that the promo page takes the DD at the closing price while MyFxBook takes the worse DD we hit during the trade . These 2 figures relate to the NZDUSD of 17/10-18/10 .

[richardlivefrex]

Hi Nick,
I strongly suggest SS should close one of large lots at this stage because he already has 11 lots opening ( his one lot still in profit) . With current lot size he is only around 20 pips away from margin call . It's too close. It is highly likely the double top forming tonight which should result huge drop and nice profit if we can stay until the worse over. So now it is most important to reduce the lot size in order to avoid margin call

[Kenji]

obviously i was being sarcastic

imagine a forex trading strategy that will give you 8000% profit with drawdonw being only 5%, trades duration is 5 minutes so no long holding trades, the signal itself is offered for free, and you are trading using someone else money so yo are not afraid to lose anything while all of the profit is yours, no such thing in real world

LOL...I didn't catch that.

For myself, I actually wanted very much to participate initially because I can take the risk.
However, I pull backed from joining because I do not understand the following. If I'm in doubt, I bail, usually.

1. What is drawdown? How is it calculated?

On SS signal promo page, I see 33.66%




However, on myfxbook, it shows 62.37%



2. What is leverage? SS uses 1:500. Must we also use 1:500. If I use 1:100, what is the impact?

3. Does the copier proportionate lot sizes when it copies the trade over and if it does, what formula it uses? I've used other copiers that proportionate lots sizes based on existing balance in account but not sure what this copier does.

4. What deposit capital must one put in to follow SS's trading system successfully since we're not going in at the beginning when he started off at $168?

5. I noticed SS is trading with increasing lot sizes over the same pair, like for example, in the beginning, he will go in with 0.6, then 0.8, 1.2, 2 lots.....(but our deposit to trade and SS deposit is unequal). Will we bust our account faster than SS because he has more margin in his account, as we're entering to participate now, instead of following him when he is at the start with $168.

6. In the chat, someone suggested fixing our lot size exposure at 0.01 of the deposit capital using the copier. However, I think this conflicts with SS trading strategy where he increases his lot size as he continue to trade the pair.

7. What risk multiplier should we use to trade successfully with SS, since his trades have a huge tendency to DD and also conversely grow. If we put a risk multiplier low, profits will be low, but if put too high, risks will increase accordingly. What exactly do we define Risk Multiplier in the context of following this signal?

Hence, since I've these questions unanswered and I'm in doubt, I will be taking uninformed risk, not calculated risk. I can accept risk, but I need to be able to understand what risk I'm exposed to.