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    Hello Nick and Will

    Could you please define this Std Dev. quantifier you have in your competition.

    It's a bit wishy-washy at the moment. No one (to my knowledge) in the chat room has any idea what it means.

    Could Will or yourself please provide 1 or 2 examples of how this calculation is made.

    I ask as look at reaper_unique statistics and they look great (for Feb sorry I have only looked at Feb - no comment on the complete contest just using him as an example)

    He has;
    reaper_unique 10.89% -0.86% 0.664% 0 / 8
    Good profit, great drawdown but terrible Std Dev........

    But what does it mean??!?!?! And please don't give me some math's equation can you please give a real trade example?

    I ask as I think it would benefit the community to actually understand what you are looking for.

    Also congrats to klaas for winning February (unbeatable for sure)

    BRM

  • #2
    BRM

    For Nick/Will to explain to you how it exactly worked with Reaper they would need to reveal each trade gain/loss%, and I don't think they will do that. However, I made a guess at what his theoretical results were to produce such standard deviation. It's not perfect, nor is is what actually happened, but it is close( I got .668% Standard dev% where his actual is .664%). As you can see it is reflective of fluctuations in the %gain/loss on each trade. One trade is 0.28% gain another is 0.56% gain, where as majority is around 1.5% range with one of 2.27%. If every single one of his trades was, lets say, 1.3% gain, then his standard deviation % would be 0 and that would truly be unbeatable(for sure). Hope this helps.

    Klass

    P.S. I made an assumption about GBPJPY $/pip( I set it to be $0.10 / 0.01 lot, which is not what it actually is, but if this was a USD based pair it would be right, nevertheless the example should still make sense because the focus is on the %gain)
    Last edited by klass; 02-27-2017, 04:50 PM.
    Trader Death Match

    Comment


    • #3
      Thanks klass.
      Very helpful.
      I see a major flaw though right? This doesn't reward RR ratios higher than 1:1.
      Correct me if I am wrong?

      Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
        Hello Nick and Will

        Could you please define this Std Dev. quantifier you have in your competition.

        It's a bit wishy-washy at the moment. No one (to my knowledge) in the chat room has any idea what it means.

        ...

        BRM
        Standard deviation can be viewed as "the average distance to the mean". In other words, standard deviation assess's how dispersed your gains(%) are, relative to all of them on average. The more dispersed, typically the higher the standard deviation.

        You can learn more here: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/...ddeviation.asp - there's also a video.

        Standard deviation is one of many basic tools to identify the risks involved from an investors perspective. If we know that there is an intrinsic relationship between risk and reward in general (meaning, if you take more risk, you should expect higher returns), then as an investor it is important we're able to measure this characteristic beyond simply looking at the gains.

        Although standard deviation has it's benefits, we are aware that people can be penalized for favourable volatility. If someone had made +1% and then the next trade made +10%, then the standard deviation would increase. We're looking to stop penalizing on the up-side and only assess the down-side. More on this very soon!

        Overall, our objective in this contest is simple: we want to encourage and get our community to start thinking about "risk adjusted returns". These are fancy words for: "maintain your risk management and make gains relative to the risk you start with".

        The reason why we're doing this is because Joe Bloggs may have a strategy that makes him 10% a year with a 2.5% draw-down. Sam on the other hand makes 120% a year with a 40% draw-down. Comparing the two, Joe Bloggs is far more exciting and interesting than Sam because if we made them comparative in risk, you'd have experienced less draw-down and higher returns. Of course as I've explained above though, we need to have another gauge to measure what's going on under the hood to get these gains and that's volatility.

        I hope this sheds some light a little?

        Moving forward we're going to improve the explanation on how this works for all to grasp more clearly!
        -"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today"-

        Follow me on Quora for Q&A on Forex: https://www.quora.com/profile/Dominic-Gilbert-2

        Comment


        • #5
          Standard Deviation gives you an indication of how confident you can be that the mean actually represents what you think it does. Say you have two scores, 1 and 10. Sum=11, Mean=5.5, SD=6.4. Take two other scores, 6 and 5. Sum=11, Mean =5.5, SD=0.7. Same mean, but you can see that the mean with the lower SD is a better summary of the actual scores.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Dom

            Standard deviation can be viewed as "the average distance to the mean". In other words, standard deviation assess's how dispersed your gains(%) are, relative to all of them on average. The more dispersed, typically the higher the standard deviation.

            You can learn more here: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/...ddeviation.asp - there's also a video.

            Standard deviation is one of many basic tools to identify the risks involved from an investors perspective. If we know that there is an intrinsic relationship between risk and reward in general (meaning, if you take more risk, you should expect higher returns), then as an investor it is important we're able to measure this characteristic beyond simply looking at the gains.

            Although standard deviation has it's benefits, we are aware that people can be penalized for favourable volatility. If someone had made +1% and then the next trade made +10%, then the standard deviation would increase. We're looking to stop penalizing on the up-side and only assess the down-side. More on this very soon!

            Overall, our objective in this contest is simple: we want to encourage and get our community to start thinking about "risk adjusted returns". These are fancy words for: "maintain your risk management and make gains relative to the risk you start with".

            The reason why we're doing this is because Joe Bloggs may have a strategy that makes him 10% a year with a 2.5% draw-down. Sam on the other hand makes 120% a year with a 40% draw-down. Comparing the two, Joe Bloggs is far more exciting and interesting than Sam because if we made them comparative in risk, you'd have experienced less draw-down and higher returns. Of course as I've explained above though, we need to have another gauge to measure what's going on under the hood to get these gains and that's volatility.

            I hope this sheds some light a little?

            Moving forward we're going to improve the explanation on how this works for all to grasp more clearly!
            Yes to stop penalizing a trader that may let profits run but has a strict SL is more beneficial.
            Thanks

            Comment


            • #7
              Can the accepted brokers for the premium room be added to the Top Trader Contest broker choices?
              Citibank purposes government issued digital Currency on CitiConnect Blockchain. Atomic Swaps would eliminate Forex overnight. Are you ready to adapt?

              Comment


              • #8
                Hey Guys

                Just a quick question regarding your calculation for the volatility percentage on your top trader contest. I see one of the traders have closed 61 trades, but only has a volatility rating of 0.002%. Are you sure your calculation is working correctly?

                Thanks,

                C.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Drcdp View Post
                  Hey Guys

                  Just a quick question regarding your calculation for the volatility percentage on your top trader contest. I see one of the traders have closed 61 trades, but only has a volatility rating of 0.002%. Are you sure your calculation is working correctly?

                  Thanks,

                  C.
                  No need to worry Drcdp. Everything is under control, and the math is working just fine. Have a good day.
                  Trader Death Match

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by klass View Post

                    No need to worry Drcdp. Everything is under control, and the math is working just fine. Have a good day.
                    Thanks Klass. Well if the stats are working correctly, either you have had an amazing run of trade closures of near identical percentage gains and losses, or you are breaking up your trades, by partially closing them in MT4 at the exact same percentage size, to ensure that your standard deviation is as small as possible, thus increasing your ranking in the competition. Fair play, but I guess not quite in the spirit of the competition?
                    Last edited by Drcdp; 07-14-2017, 11:30 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Are the competitors at church or something? Where they have to be kind to each other?

                      I'm just asking sincerely, maybe religion is involved in the spirit of the competition.
                      Last edited by Sehter; 07-16-2017, 03:37 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Klass defo has a Std Dev that is as low as that. Just looking at his trading history over this month and his trades are very similar.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I am sorry to say I really think the current ranking formula is flawed. Even if winning trades are not penalized, people can manipulate the standard deviation by deliberately closing the losing trades close to each other, eg. for similar amount of lost pips.

                          My trading contest account currently has nearly 90% gain with less than 10% DD for this month, and yet it is ranked behind a system that only has 1% gain with an incredibly small standard deviation (which may be deliberately done to suit the condition of the contest)...this does not seem very fair
                          Jimmy’s Personal Account - Myfxbook
                          Jimmy's Personal Account - SimpleTrader Signal
                          SFE Price Action Autolot High Risk - Myfxbook
                          SFE Price Action Autolot High Risk - SimpleTrader Signal

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                          • #14
                            Sorry I know some of you are getting sick of me for bringing this up all the time...but I really can't believe I am only at second place this month with 120% gain and less than 10% DD - behind someone who has a 1.48% gain for the month just because he has a very low standard deviation.

                            Where is the balance in this? If someone can make his standard deviation as close to 0.001% as possible, then he can just win the monthly contest with 0.1% gain? I just feel this standard deviation based formula is getting a bit ridiculous...now the contest does nothing but to encourage people to close their trades as close to each other as possible, and it really discourages people who take the contest seriously only to find out that low standard deviation trumps everything, even if your monthly gain is over 100%!
                            Last edited by ccjhuang; 07-20-2017, 07:34 PM.
                            Jimmy’s Personal Account - Myfxbook
                            Jimmy's Personal Account - SimpleTrader Signal
                            SFE Price Action Autolot High Risk - Myfxbook
                            SFE Price Action Autolot High Risk - SimpleTrader Signal

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Well, the fact that your account is traded by other people like Steadycapture and the SFE EA's should really disqualify you for participating (and of course everyone else using signals and so on).

                              No offense to you at all, if it's allowed it's the rules of the contest that is flawed.

                              Comment

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