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  • Fx-Managers Strategy Description

    OUR STRATEGY:

    We are using a proprietary algorithmic trading robot that uses two mathematical models:

    a) Bayesian Probability Model
    b) Machine Learning Algorithm

    It is a complex system that take into account more than 100 variables simultaneously and that has the capacity for self-learning, minimizing the risks the longer it is used.


    - On a daily basis:

    a) The system runs continuously and using a simple graphical interface it tells us what is the entry price for a specific instrument (currency pair) which direction (buy or sell) and how many pips are expected to be won on that trade.

    b) Separately, the system tells us what is the risk of the operation in a rank of 0 to 10. We use this rank to enter into the market with a specific volume. However, since this information is not static, it changes with ticks, sometimes we re-enter a new trade with same instrument and different or same volume, as you can see. Imagine that we BUY 0.5 lots of EUR/USD with our risk rank at 8. Then, 2 hours later the risk rank goes to 9, in that case we would had probably 0.2 or 0.3 more lots (the higher the figure, the lower the risk and more probability for the price to move in our favor).

    This is how we work. We read the alarms from our algo-trading system but we introduce orders manually, to avoid any algorithmic related issue or even any kind of broker-related issue (unfortunately not so uncommon).


    - Risk Management:

    With regard to your capital preservation, please be aware that we have a mid-low tolerance to risk and that we have limited our system to a maximal consolidated drawdown of 20%. So far, in 7 months, which includes BREXIT and US ELECTIONS, we only had a maximal drawdown of 14.45%. Please see our MT4 terminal report. Also, the profit trade ratio is always kept at 80% or aboveall the time, as you can see. We are approaching 90% in the last couple of months.

    For the floating drawdown, and only under very exceptional circumstances like BREXIT or US ELECTIONS, we allow the drawdown to go a big further, if and only if our system tells us that we are in a good scenario.

    Report Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByX...ew?usp=sharing

    We do FUND MANAGEMENT. You can contact us for that also.


    - About Our Trader:

    We've put here all the expertise from years of experience not only in the financial industry. My partner, Mustafa C. Boullra, who designed and implemented the algorithmic trading solution, has designed it following models and principles from aerospace, defense and telecoms. You can have a look to his background also here:

    - http://about.me/mboullra
    - https://es.linkedin.com/in/mboullra

    We deliver trading solutions to other Money Managers and to Brokers with our other business, MT4Software.com

    Our Signal Link: https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/...xManagers.html
    Our Website: http://www.fx-managers.com
    Last edited by fxsignalp; 12-17-2016, 08:13 PM.

  • #2
    Thanks for posting. I've subscribed to your signal for a month now – I like the way you trade and am happy to carry on subscribing.

    You mention above that “we only had a maximal drawdown of 14.45%.” Your myfxbook account has more than that. I've adjusted my risk setting (down) based on the myfxbook maximum drawdown. Could you address this discrepancy? Thanks

    Comment


    • #3
      @fxsignalp Hello, the system looks promising, but if you are confident it will bring long term constant results, why do you have only 2k on it? This doesn't give confidence to us investors. Also from January 2017 the min. required to be a signal provider will be 3k, so you will need to top up the master balance at least to that min. requirement.

      Could you please tell us what pairs are you trading and how many trades can be open at the same time? You mention 25% cut off, do you have EA that closes all trades if it reaches that level? Also you mention that you can go beyond that level if something like Brexit or US elections happen, but what if price doesn't return back? Than your max. DD is surpassed and loss will be bigger than mentioned, no? Or do you try to reduce it by hedging etc?
      Last edited by oportunis; 12-16-2016, 09:31 AM.
      My signal - ZuluTrade
      My signal - Myfxbook
      My signal - SignalStart

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by greenfield View Post
        Thanks for posting. I've subscribed to your signal for a month now – I like the way you trade and am happy to carry on subscribing.

        You mention above that “we only had a maximal drawdown of 14.45%.” Your myfxbook account has more than that. I've adjusted my risk setting (down) based on the myfxbook maximum drawdown. Could you address this discrepancy? Thanks
        Dear Greenfield,

        Thank you for your valuable comment. Let us explain what, at first sight, might look as a discrepancy. I am just copying-pasting here the same post about your question that we have published in other social trading sites. I hope it answers your question. Otherwise, please do not hesitate to keep asking/commenting. We love transparency and we are glad also to contribute to traders education and training:

        -------------------------------
        Dear all,

        First, we do strongly appreciate all the warm and encouraging words we have received in the last few months from you all. Thank you so much indeed.

        Some of the recurrent questions that we receive privately in our simpletrader message inbox is about drawdown, and we would like to clarify and give a detailed explanation on how it works.

        First, please note that most social trading sites and reporting tools measures drawdown in a different manner. For the sake of simplicity, let us differentiate here between:

        - Floating DD: A loss that is alive in our equity, but with positions not closed yet (i.e. the balance is not reflecting that loss).
        - Consolidated DD: A loss that has already been consolidated and is final, already reflected in our balance since the losing positions have been closed already.

        Secondly, allow us to clarify how and when did we start using our ML-based trading system. Our system is the result of a work that started back in 2007 by myself (http://about.me/mboullra), when I got interested in Machine Learning algorithms and wanted to apply it to my own trading experience of 18 years so far in stocks, futures, options and CFDs. In 2015 I met Mr. Hitesh Arora, from India, my current business partner, and we started using the system in April/2016. That account already existed and was managed with another totally different system, with no really good success. We can deliver the real full report from MT4 Terminal also to those who requested it.

        With all this, we have the following:

        - The maximum consolidated DD shown of 37% corresponds to another system, not to this one. Please do check history for a full understanding of this. April/2016 is the baseline for our ML-algo trading solution. Actually, it can be easily noted that there is a gap of ‘no trading’ between Nov/2015 and Apr/2016.
        - The maximum consolidated drawdown since then has been lower than 10%, has shown in the attached snapshot (image) on this post.
        - However all this, during high-volatility moments on big news, such as Brexit and US Elections, we have to admit that we are not trading under normal circumstances. Not acknowledging this is the first source of losses for many traders. During Brexit and US Elections we traded managing DDs of around 30%. We had the trade limited to a 40% DD during this couple of days because that was the only way to yield profit under extremely-high-volatility. These situations rarely happen, but we had 2 this year 2016, and we succeed in both of them.
        Please note also that our system has 2 different modules: The ML-algo trading module and the ML-Risk-Management module. The latter gives us information in real-time about the risk of every single position in a rank between 0 – 10. That’s how we take decisions and perform the trade manually.

        We should have start this trading with a fresh new account, but now it's too late. That was our mistake.


        We certainly hope this sheds some light on what, how and when we deal with DD. We will keep posting with more interesting and big news in the next few days and will update in a more professional manner our signal description, signal news and signal FAQs sections.

        Keep an eye on our posts and thank you again.

        P.S: Please note that in MT4 Client report the peeks from last days are due to some withdrawals in order to arrange our move from MAM to PAMM by end of month.

        BR,
        Mustafa C. Boullra
        Founder & CTO
        www.mt4software.com
        www.fx-managers.com
        http://about.me/mboullra
        https://es.linkedin.com/in/mboullra
        Skype ID: mt4software
        -------------------------------

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by oportunis View Post
          @fxsignalp Hello, the system looks promising, but if you are confident it will bring long term constant results, why do you have only 2k on it? This doesn't give confidence to us investors. Also from January 2017 the min. required to be a signal provider will be 3k, so you will need to top up the master balance at least to that min. requirement.

          Could you please tell us what pairs are you trading and how many trades can be open at the same time? You mention 25% cut off, do you have EA that closes all trades if it reaches that level? Also you mention that you can go beyond that level if something like Brexit or US elections happen, but what if price doesn't return back? Than your max. DD is surpassed and loss will be bigger than mentioned, no? Or do you try to reduce it by hedging etc?
          Dear Oportunis,

          Thank you also for your interesting questions and comments. Allow me to answer your questions individually below:

          1. It is not the first time that our [potential] investors ask this question, since it may looks like we are not confident in our system. You are 100% right. The explanation is simple. Most traders only use a balance for social trading of an amount below $5,000. Since we are using a MAM instead of a PAMM (this is about to change next month), we prefer to have the master account with a balance that reflects the reality of our investors. Otherwise, volume division would make low balance investors not to get into some of the trades (mainly because some brokers do not allow microlots (multiples of 0.01), but only minilots (multiples of 0.1). However, we do direct Money Management for clients and we are copying this signal using our own Trade Copy technology. This total balance is not shown in our social trading pages. As a reference, we are targeting a total volume of $2.5M for 2017.

          2. Yes, we will increase the balance in order to meet new minimum balance requirements.

          3. We basically trade only majors, to be more precise: EURUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURCHF and only one metal, Gold (XAUUSD).

          4. We don't have a fixed maximum number of simultaneous orders, but a maximum volume which is determined by the level of risk provided by the algorithm. As far as I can remember now, the maximum amount of simultaneously open orders we had so far has been 7. But the average is always 3 or 4.

          5. We do not use hedging systematically, and we don't like that trading technique (it's a loser technique). Nevertheless, under certain high-volatility, big news scenarios, we might use asymmetric-hedging to minimize risk, and only for being closed the same day (e.g. during last FED Interest Rate decision last week, we had 0.1 lots in EURCHF long and then we entered with 0.07 lots short, since we expected a high-peek in some unknown direction for later consolidation. We ended profiting both sides.

          6. The maximum DD that we mention is a consolidated DD, correct. As explained, floating DD can be higher during VERY SPECIFIC moments (the kind of news that happens once every year or every 2 years (big terrorist attack, one country leaving the EU, US Elections, Market intervention by central banks, etc...). If it happens that the price never get back to its entry point, we have to admit the error and close immediately. In any case, we still have the Risk Management algorithm in place, and if we enter the market under those conditions is because we have, at least, a 90% confidence of the trade (risk level from 0 to 10, as explained). Besides, we NEVER leave trading in full automatic mode. This is our job and we are 100% of the time monitoring the platform and our algorithm. Even more when big events are expected. And even moreover, all orders have SL (usually we don't use TP). We only removed SL in those two cases that we mentioned so far (Brexit and US Elections), and we made a good profit in both cases, where most managers and traders made a big loss.

          Please, keep asking if you are still unsure about any aspect of our strategy or trading model.

          Thank you,


          BR,

          Mustafa C. Boullra
          Founder & CTO
          www.mt4software.com
          www.fx-managers.com
          http://about.me/mboullra
          https://es.linkedin.com/in/mboullra
          Skype ID: mt4software

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by fxsignalp View Post
            1. It is not the first time that our [potential] investors ask this question, since it may looks like we are not confident in our system. You are 100% right. The explanation is simple. Most traders only use a balance for social trading of an amount below $5,000. Since we are using a MAM instead of a PAMM (this is about to change next month), we prefer to have the master account with a balance that reflects the reality of our investors. Otherwise, volume division would make low balance investors not to get into some of the trades (mainly because some brokers do not allow microlots (multiples of 0.01), but only minilots (multiples of 0.1). However, we do direct Money Management for clients and we are copying this signal using our own Trade Copy technology. This total balance is not shown in our social trading pages. As a reference, we are targeting a total volume of $2.5M for 2017.
            Thank you for your reply.

            I understand you can have more of investors funds, however those funds are not your own. Unless I missunderstood your reply you are basically trading with only 2k of your own money. Is that correct or do you have more of your own money in the system? I ask this, because we investors like to see that a signal provider has substantial money on the line, this gives them more credibility as you will trade more cautiously and not over trade or risk too much. Plenty of signal providers who had smaller balance ended up with margin call, they risked too much. It is easy to get back 2k especially if you got more from subscribtions, while if they would have 20k than this would be harder as getting that money would take more time, therefore they would be more careful with it.

            Originally posted by fxsignalp View Post
            5. We do not use hedging systematically, and we don't like that trading technique (it's a loser technique). Nevertheless, under certain high-volatility, big news scenarios, we might use asymmetric-hedging to minimize risk, and only for being closed the same day (e.g. during last FED Interest Rate decision last week, we had 0.1 lots in EURCHF long and then we entered with 0.07 lots short, since we expected a high-peek in some unknown direction for later consolidation. We ended profiting both sides.
            FOMC and rate hike was on 14th of December and on that date I don't see any EURCHF trades open or closed based on your history on myfxbook. However I see USDJPY that was closed at around -4% loss, which is OK as I see it had a visible SL. Have you calculated or considered also what would have happened if you had a GBPUSD pair open when flash crash happened on GBP pairs. In that case SL are not valid as liquidity providers do not execute orders and it can go down 2-3k pips in just few minutes. The same happened with CHF on black swan event in January 2015. In that cases what damage could we expect?
            My signal - ZuluTrade
            My signal - Myfxbook
            My signal - SignalStart

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by oportunis View Post

              Thank you for your reply.

              I understand you can have more of investors funds, however those funds are not your own. Unless I missunderstood your reply you are basically trading with only 2k of your own money. Is that correct or do you have more of your own money in the system? I ask this, because we investors like to see that a signal provider has substantial money on the line, this gives them more credibility as you will trade more cautiously and not over trade or risk too much. Plenty of signal providers who had smaller balance ended up with margin call, they risked too much. It is easy to get back 2k especially if you got more from subscribtions, while if they would have 20k than this would be harder as getting that money would take more time, therefore they would be more careful with it.



              FOMC and rate hike was on 14th of December and on that date I don't see any EURCHF trades open or closed based on your history on myfxbook. However I see USDJPY that was closed at around -4% loss, which is OK as I see it had a visible SL. Have you calculated or considered also what would have happened if you had a GBPUSD pair open when flash crash happened on GBP pairs. In that case SL are not valid as liquidity providers do not execute orders and it can go down 2-3k pips in just few minutes. The same happened with CHF on black swan event in January 2015. In that cases what damage could we expect?
              Dear Oportunis,

              Thanks again for your wise questions, they will surely help also other potential subscribers who read us. Let's go point by point:

              1. We do have our own money invested in the system, but not into the master account, as explained. The $2.2K is the balance of the master account, which is an account in broker FidelisCM where we started piloting our system in REAL mode back in April the 28th, 2016. That started with funds from investors that followed us from the past, when we were just a mere DEMO system, and that put their confidence in us since the beginning. That account actually started being traded in April with only $570, as far as I can remember (can check this for you). Not a single $ was from our own money, I must say. We just didn't want to lose the history, since potential investors don't trust "very young" accounts (and it makes quite sense, as we all know). So we've decided to keep this small account as the master. Besides, as mentioned, it help average traders to allocate trades easier, since we are MAM, not PAMM (this will change in January or February the latest).

              2. We do have our own money invested, absolutely non-sense not to do it considering history and robustness of our system. Mr Hitesh Arora and myself are business partners here and we risk our own money as our clients do. Our current balance in $16,739.32 and it uses a multiplier factor to what you see in our signal of x4.

              3. The risk in our small accounts' followers is controlled by means of our volume/balance ratio (please note this is not volume/equity ratio). This is stated in our trading policy / procedures which says that the total exposed volume will never exceed 1 lot per $1000 of balance (10% exposure) and that we will never trade using leverages above 1:200 (although this depends more on every client's account).

              4. With regard to the EURCHF trade, you are absolutely right. I was answering without double checking the report and I see that the EUFCHF trading was actually from a different day, when SNB reminded the market that they won't refuse intervention if needed.

              5. The trading on USDJPY with a -4% loss is a proof, in my humble opinion, of how we control and cut losses without any kind of fear. If we went wrong, we wen't wrong. Admit it. Close it. Do it better for the next time (for your information, that was a fundamental trade, not technical (we are mix), so it didn't use our ML-algo system, only our RM system.

              6. Finally, the gaps. We don't use to leave trades opened during such movements if we don't have some guarantees that we might succeed. The attached snapshot shows that we were not in into the GBP during election results. We just started trading after it happened. Avoiding any kind of gap. What happened to CHF is very well known. We were not trading on EURCHF by then, we are VERY aware of the SNB potential intervention and I am personally tracking SNB news every single day. We always enter EURCHF upwards (99% cases) and with tight SL at 1.06000.

              As a summary to describe where do we come from, where we are and where are we heading, just to mention part of our vision in one sentence: We are here to change the Fund Management industry.

              We are staying long and people start talking about us everywhere, so thank you for being with us since the beginning and for your helpful comments.

              BR,

              Mustafa C. Boullra
              Founder & CTO
              www.mt4software.com
              www.fx-managers.com
              http://about.me/mboullra
              https://es.linkedin.com/in/mboullra
              Skype ID: mt4software
              Attached Files
              Last edited by fxsignalp; 12-18-2016, 08:10 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by fxsignalp View Post

                2. We do have our own money invested, absolutely non-sense not to do it considering history and robustness of our system. Mr Hitesh Arora and myself are business partners here and we risk our own money as our clients do. Our current balance in $16,739.32 and it uses a multiplier factor to what you see in our signal of x4.
                fxsignalp , Hello, you mention you also invested in the system with the current balance $16,739,32, so this means that you're also copying from the master account, is it correct?
                Can you also please provide the myfxbook link of your own account with this balance ($16,739.32) as a proof?

                Thanks.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Is there anyone else besides greenfield following this signal?
                  The trades in the account of the subscriber match those on the master account?
                  What are the slippage?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I added them on Monday, so far I have same results, some trades were slipped by 1-2 pips, some had better entry so overall I have results close to the master. If trades are closed by more than 5 pips you shouldn't have any problem with slippage. But I would also like to see the 16k account they mentioned. It would give us investors more confidence.
                    My signal - ZuluTrade
                    My signal - Myfxbook
                    My signal - SignalStart

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      @fxsignalp

                      Hello, I would like to know if in periods of floating DD there are open trades in a grid or martingale, or if you use a basket only to mediate the open positions

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Ive put some capital into play as well...


                        Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Someone continues to use this signal?
                          The performance of the subscribers account match those of the Signal Provider account?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Yep, Im in and satisfied...


                            Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I also follow them, but last 2 weeks it has been no profit. Small loss for me. Those losing trades wipe out all profits. I would say 1 loss takes out 4 profitable trades. Trading before news release is not good. It would be better to avoid trading those days and continue after release is out when market is more calm and technical.
                              My signal - ZuluTrade
                              My signal - Myfxbook
                              My signal - SignalStart

                              Comment

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