JoePro Hedge Strategy

[JoePro]

Hey guys I reduced another level on signal with a small loss of around 0.15% this is just for the case if price pulls back that our over all exposure is reduced. Just think of it as a pause. This is very easy recovered that it doesn't even require a "recovery" how tiny the loss is but it has a big effect should price reverse and head down down again.

Also, im fired up we just hedged our first time with the adaptive algo you can see it doesn't wait, the second it sees trend has changed on big TF it will open a hedge with an edge.

Working on the next video update.

EDIT: Total draw down paused with SL 0.5% and 1.84% in floating drawdown with 100 pips to TP

[KappuhH]

What are you basing this information on? Can you show me any stats where it says most are using martingale systems and holding? Regardless of what the strategies are that traders are using, most are losing and statistically it's better to go against the average retailer when bigger % is against the trend.

It is just an assumption. I see a lot accounts (also very succesfull accounts) that are using martingale or averaging. So every account that does not close losing trades will contribute to an outlook that shows most positions against the trend. So besides the fact that an average retail trader is loosing money, the outlook probably will also show against the trend for successful accounts...

And by the way: great to see you trade and very useful information in the videos!

[JoePro]

It is just an assumption. I see a lot accounts (also very succesfull accounts) that are using martingale or averaging. So every account that does not close losing trades will contribute to an outlook that shows most positions against the trend. So besides the fact that an average retail trader is loosing money, the outlook probably will also show against the trend for successful accounts...

And by the way: great to see you trade and very useful information in the videos!

Ah I see what you mean. Sure that can be a contributing factor for sure which is also the reason we are only interested in the numbers when it gets to above 70%. You can see here on EJ there are a lot of positions that are being held like you mentioned https://gyazo.com/998486e583fca2e44e7de2c5c94db579

Thank you for your feedback, really appreciate the engagement.

[Big River Man]

I very much like that you have reduced exposure. I was really h oping you would start to incorporate this. Mucho happio.

[JoePro]

I very much like that you have reduced exposure. I was really h oping you would start to incorporate this. Mucho happio.

Thank you, I am also very happy because it changes the whole dynamic of the dd volatility now. We just need more time and this will work out just fine with a soft landing like I promised.

The people who stick with me through the bad will be rewarded for it when the market starts trending. Just remember we are in it for the long run and not get rich quick. Real wealth is accumulated over time and not over night.

[Gunther]

Joe

Some very good trading choices over the last 24 hours reducing the risk and keeping everyone updated. Thank you

You still looking for EURJPY to the upside, looks toppy, but what do i know. Any news on the gold and other updates you where working on

Excellent work again, and love the Indicator, thanks

[JoePro]

Joe

Some very good trading choices over the last 24 hours reducing the risk and keeping everyone updated. Thank you

You still looking for EURJPY to the upside, looks toppy, but what do i know. Any news on the gold and other updates you where working on

Excellent work again, and love the Indicator, thanks

Thank you for your input. To answer your question, looking at everything it seems we could see price kind of stalling here until NFP. If it continued going up it wouldn't suprise me but I am not expecting a strong strong push up. This is really impossible to predict since we don't know who is positing what and where into the market in preparation for NFP numbers. We can just trade on statistics and let things work themselves out.

I will do a video update on the current status today after I come back from my work out. It will be a quick update. After this EJ hedge sequence is closed I will go over the details about my analysis of EJ as far as draw down compared to possible gains annually and why I don't like the trade off. Of course things could look different for EJ with the new algo because it never waits for 5% DD to reduce exposure anymore and it has the adaptive hedging instead of fixed and moving out of the range functions. All of the new functions are all done with a statistical edge to reduce DD volatility and exposure.

As far as gold, I will continue to run the strategy for a few months to tweak the functions to be able to take the most out of the potential gold gives us with the swings. If you watched my last "Get you to think" video you will understand what I am talking about.

[Big River Man]

Are we on hold with GJ and GA until EJ is closed?

[KappuhH]

Ah I see what you mean. Sure that can be a contributing factor for sure which is also the reason we are only interested in the numbers when it gets to above 70%. You can see here on EJ there are a lot of positions that are being held like you mentioned https://gyazo.com/998486e583fca2e44e7de2c5c94db579

Thank you for your feedback, really appreciate the engagement.

By the way a question: in your videos you are taking about patterns and flipping coins. I do understand that. That is the same concerning trends isn't it? You will never know when the trend ends. And you can have trends from different perspectieven. The yearly trend can be different from a daily trend. So, from your perspectieven, how do you define a trend? What 'indicator' are you using and on what period?

[JoePro]

By the way a question: in your videos you are taking about patterns and flipping coins. I do understand that. That is the same concerning trends isn't it? You will never know when the trend ends. And you can have trends from different perspectieven. The yearly trend can be different from a daily trend. So, from your perspectieven, how do you define a trend? What 'indicator' are you using and on what period?

Again excellent point. I actually made my own algorithm to define trend. It's not a indicator and it allows me to see what my statistical chances are following the trend on a individual pair. Of course it will not be right all the time but if I can have a statistical edge of being right in the direction I trade through out the entire year, I can profit from that. All I can do is keep entering trades on signal with the trend. It's all about maximizing potential for profit and it's not about being right every time all the time. We are trading price movement and all we can do based on the available information to us is trade in a way that if repeated over and over again will give us an edge. Hope that makes sense

Also, if you combine all the information I have presented in my videos, it basically reveals trend to me is on much higher time frame because we are looking to benefit from the moves that are 50-100-200 pips in 1 direction which are usually with trend. We want to get the spikes and statistically the spikes happen with the trend not against it unless it's a trend change but again, the edge is with the trend not against it.

[JoePro]

Are we on hold with GJ and GA until EJ is closed?

I am about to record the video update and I will cover GJ EJ GA. In short GJ is not on hold GA is until EJ closes.

[KappuhH]

Again excellent point. I actually made my own algorithm to define trend. It's not a indicator and it allows me to see what my statistical chances are following the trend on a individual pair. Of course it will not be right all the time but if I can have a statistical edge of being right in the direction I trade through out the entire year, I can profit from that. All I can do is keep entering trades on signal with the trend.

That means you keep entering trades as the long term trend is holding but the short term is against the trade (you'll do that max 5 times isn't it?). So that sounds like sort of averaging or martingale (but you do not increase lotsizes).

It's all about maximizing potential for profit and it's not about being right every time all the time. We are trading price movement and all we can do based on the available information to us is trade in a way that if repeated over and over again will give us an edge. Hope that makes sense

Also, if you combine all the information I have presented in my videos, it basically reveals trend to me is on much higher time frame because we are looking to benefit from the moves that are 50-100-200 pips in 1 direction which are usually with trend. We want to get the spikes and statistically the spikes happen with the trend not against it unless it's a trend change but again, the edge is with the trend not against it.

So based on your trend indicator you have an statiatical advantage over the market. That's the reason you can do this?

Is it also possible to apply your strategy on smaller timeframes and movements? So on smaller trends of 5-10-20 pips? Or is that to risky?

[JoePro]

That means you keep entering trades as the long term trend is holding but the short term is against the trade (you'll do that max 5 times isn't it?). So that sounds like sort of averaging or martingale (but you do not increase lotsizes).



So based on your trend indicator you have an statiatical advantage over the market. That's the reason you can do this?

Is it also possible to apply your strategy on smaller time frames and movements? So on smaller trends of 5-10-20 pips? Or is that to risky?

I do it 5x because I take my 1 trade of 0.15 lots on a 15k account and divide it up by 5. I can inject pieces of my trade at different price levels if price goes against me & position my full trade at a over all better price. So where ever the breakeven point is of these divided up positions, you can just imagine it's the exact same as if I entered 0.15 lots on that price. That's far from martingale but I guess it could be considered some kind type of averaging if you're looking for a specific term to describe it. To me it's just "I split my trade up by 5, call it whatever you want" lol

5-10-20 pips is possible but not even worth doing. Markets are dynamic and price can move 50 100 pips in minutes and than reverse and go the other way.
20pips movement you can see on a single 1 minute candle on GJ how can anyone get an edge long term on such small movements when you consider slippage spread + commission. We want to have an edge on everything possible and small movement trading is a waist of resources (in my book)

[Drcdp]

I do it 5x because I take my 1 trade of 0.15 lots on a 15k account and divide it up by 5. I can inject pieces of my trade at different price levels if price goes against me & position my full trade at a over all better price. So where ever the breakeven point is of these divided up positions, you can just imagine it's the exact same as if I entered 0.15 lots on that price. That's far from martingale but I guess it could be considered some kind type of averaging if you're looking for a specific term to describe it. To me it's just "I split my trade up by 5, call it whatever you want" lol

Hey Joe, just a question regarding splitting your position size into five smaller units. I can see the logic behind this, however, would this not mean, that when you are right, most of the time you are just making a 1/5 potential profit, and when you are wrong, you end up with a full position in drawdown? Would it not make more sense to use a full position immediately, and if you are wrong, use your hedging sequence to get out? That way you won't end up with many small wins, and the eventual big loss? Instead, you will have many big wins, several break evens with the hedge sequence and the occasional similar size loss?

Btw, really enjoy the video updates, and other content, keep up the good work.

[JoePro]

Hey Joe, just a question regarding splitting your position size into five smaller units. I can see the logic behind this, however, would this not mean, that when you are right, most of the time you are just making a 1/5 potential profit, and when you are wrong, you end up with a full position in drawdown? Would it not make more sense to use a full position immediately, and if you are wrong, use your hedging sequence to get out? That way you won't end up with many small wins, and the eventual big loss? Instead, you will have many big wins, several break evens with the hedge sequence and the occasional similar size loss?

Btw, really enjoy the video updates, and other content, keep up the good work.

Thank you

Well you see this is where it gets tricky. If you have an edge on direction that doesn't mean you have an edge on positioning. Trading is multi dimensional. I enter the market on movement into direction with trend on signal but that doesn't mean price will continue with the trend from that point... price moves up and down as it goes with the trend. If you enter only on retracements you miss the chance when price just shoots through highs and continues 100s of pips without retracement. Basically I am trading both scenarios when I split my trades up.

You're right, splitting trades reduces potential profit when we place a position and price takes off but it's just 1 trade with 1 scenario, what about all the other scenarios where price doesn't take off on the first position and pulls back first and plays in a range? This is the only way to trade range and trend at the same time lol just woke up hope this makes sense