Market Outlook 22nd August 2016

Traders eye Yellen's Jackson Hole Speech

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD has been under pressure via the USD/JPY selling and the beginning's of a EUR/USD rally. The main catalyst has been a dovish shift by the market towards the FED's willingness to raise rate's this year. Interbank bond yields indicate chances of a September hike are down to 10% after the FOMC minutes from the July meeting showed most members looking to wait for more information before raising rates. Fedspeak has...

RBA Ahead, 60% chance to Cut, AUD on Backfoot

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) USD weakness retraced after the heavy falls on Friday after the weak Q2 GDP report. EUR/USD and USD/JPY were largely unchanged but the Dollar bounced against most other pairs. WTI/OIL was very weak down 4% to test $40 a barrel as over supply fears resurfaced on more rigs coming online in the US and Libya resuming the shipping of Oil.

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD was very quiet unable to break 1.1200 even...

Yen Strong as USD/JPY falls back below Y105

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) USD Strength continued into the new week ahead of the all important FOMC meeting Wednesday. OIL/USD weakness is helping the USD strength intensify against the commodity currencies. The FED is likely to remain on hold but many see risks that recent stock market gains and strong economic data will lead to a more hawkish tone. Doves argue the Brexit uncertainty will lead to a more cautious wait and see approach but the...

Dow Jones Rally enters 8th Day, USD Strong

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) US stocks eked out another day of gains albeit only small closing at fresh all time highs and helping to stabilize the rest of the market caught in risk off trade during the Asian and European sessions. Oil and commodities such as Iron Ore are under selling pressure and this is helping the USD gain against most pairs.

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD struggled in the strong USD environment and fell slowly...

Markets Sideways, NZD Sold as August Rate Cut odds Firm

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Risk remained on with a rebound after the failed coup in Turkey saw investors keen to resume buying. The USD gained against the JPY but was generally muted against most pairs. OIL/USD remained firm and this is a bullish sign given the rally on Friday on supply issues in the middle east did not reverse substantially.

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD traded sideways but the EUR/JPY saw a nice rally...

Turkish Coup Fails, Risk Back on Monday Morning

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) an overbought market finally got an excuse to pull back on Friday with news of a attempted Turkish Coup sending risk spiking higher into the close. News over the weekend that the coup has failed has seen a sharp rally in US futures this morning with UJ back above Y106 and Dow looking to open above 18500. The Turkish news sent Oil as well with strategic location prompting supply fears.

The Euro (E...

Fresh All Time Highs for US Stocks

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) The aggressive rally in Global stocks continued overnight without pause and some key levels were broken on the US DOW30 which broke to all time fresh highs above 18370. The USD as a safe haven was mixed gaining against the JPY and Gold but falling against more risk sensitive pairs such as the Australian Dollar. The Dramatic reversal in global risk appetite since the brexit has analysts questioning just how off the table FED...

USD/JPY Leads a Huge Risk On Rally

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a very strong NFP had limited impact on the Forex markets Friday but stock markets did rally and we opened the Asia session is positive mood Monday. Things kicked into high gear however after the Japanese elections sent the Nikkei on a 500 point surge on expectations of a major new government stimulus package. After some reluctance USD/JPY went on a sharp short squeeze from 100.80 to 102.80 and lifted all global markets and...

US NFP Looms as the Potential Game Changer

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) we stand on the edge with many pairs with EUR/USD eyeing 1.100 and USD/JPY flirting with the huge Y100 level in the Asian session Friday. Expectations for +175k are well above last months shockingly low +38k and this is seen as reasonable although still a little optimistic given the last months the trend has been lower. Revisions will be extremely important and a negative headline outcome may prove difficult to trade....

BOE Carney Promises Easing in Coming Months

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market has fully engaged in the rally with a third day impressive gains on the stock markets. The USD was able to gain however as the main catalyst for the further gains overnight was the promise of further action from the Bank of England and the rumors that the ECB was going to expand QE.

The Euro (EUR) The EUR/USD reversed from above 1.1100 as rumors swirled that the ECB was preparing to expand...