SteadyCapture Discussion (Archived)

[jprize]

There's a message I've been trying to get across for a while now with little success. There is only so much statistics can tell you. With statistics you know (or should I say expect) that on average you'll make money but you don't know which trades are winners and which ones are losers. Sometimes adding some logic can go a long way. Then you'll realize that some trades are just doomed from the start. You should know exactly what I'm talking about because I pointed one out specifically (not from SteadyCapture) very recently as an example. Somebody in your team should have the skills to look at individual trades and assess them. Statistics can hide trading logic flaws beautifully for a long time and we've seen enough examples of that by now. And subscribers are normally not capable of doing that themselves.

To make it clear I'm not talking about SteadyCapture here because so far I had zero interest in this signal and have not been looking at his trading at all except bookmarking myfxbook. But I'm also not saying it can't be relevant.

Primi, that sounds good on the surface, but if you have this ability to know absolutely which trades are "Doomed" , why don't you take the other side of those trades and start your own signal???

[shawntan]

Hey guys,

Just for clarification, I'm certainly not suggesting you guys increase your risk multiplier. What I do on my aggressive account is at my own peril, this is why I don't openly state how I run this account.

Taruh - I disagree with much of what you've said, however I do agree that if you look at these two trades in isolation it makes Jay look like a pretty poor trader. Fortunately we've done more due diligence than these two trades, and indications are that he'll almost certainly recover based on his track record.

We'll also leave the link open for a month to allow those of you on two month plans to receive the full benefit

I stupidly went to use the link so now I have 2 concurrent subscriptions that end in 2 months time. Is there a way around this? I initially thought the complimentary period would be added on top of my existing. I did not know that it was not possible to merge.

[primi]

Taruh - I disagree with much of what you've said, however I do agree that if you look at these two trades in isolation it makes Jay look like a pretty poor trader. Fortunately we've done more due diligence than these two trades, and indications are that he'll almost certainly recover based on his track record.

There's a message I've been trying to get across for a while now with little success. There is only so much statistics can tell you. With statistics you know (or should I say expect) that on average you'll make money but you don't know which trades are winners and which ones are losers. Sometimes adding some logic can go a long way. Then you'll realize that some trades are just doomed from the start. You should know exactly what I'm talking about because I pointed one out specifically (not from SteadyCapture) very recently as an example. Somebody in your team should have the skills to look at individual trades and assess them. Statistics can hide trading logic flaws beautifully for a long time and we've seen enough examples of that by now. And subscribers are normally not capable of doing that themselves.

To make it clear I'm not talking about SteadyCapture here because so far I had zero interest in this signal and have not been looking at his trading at all except bookmarking myfxbook. But I'm also not saying it can't be relevant.

[Nick]

Hey guys,

Just for clarification, I'm certainly not suggesting you guys increase your risk multiplier. What I do on my aggressive account is at my own peril, this is why I don't openly state how I run this account.

Taruh - I disagree with much of what you've said, however I do agree that if you look at these two trades in isolation it makes Jay look like a pretty poor trader. Fortunately we've done more due diligence than these two trades, and indications are that he'll almost certainly recover based on his track record.

We'll also leave the link open for a month to allow those of you on two month plans to receive the full benefit

[miro]

Most of us still have a month or so left on the initial subscription (before next payment). Can we subscribe a month from now, using the link in the email?

That's exactly what I'm wondering as well?

Steady what is the plan for recovery?

[jprize]

Hey guys,

You should have received the email about the 2 month complimentary subscription by now.

Keep in mind that Jay hasn't broken any rules here and every indication we have shows that he'll make a full recovery, it's just a matter of time.

I know losses hurt, but they're part of trading. Yes, this was a lot higher than we would like, but keep in mind that his max DD limit has been openly advertised as 30% with targeted returns in the 2-8% range per month. He's not obligated to trade for free, however he recognises the opportunity in being a part of this community and is committed to making money for all of us over the long term.

I believe I understand this guy better than most traders we've had on this site, our due diligence has been extensive and nothing that's happened has changed our opinion that he'll get the job done for all of us.

Most of us still have a month or so left on the initial subscription (before next payment). Can we subscribe a month from now, using the link in the email?

[arkoon]

0.25 would be while "observation time". You can then run along others robots/signals/manual. Then you may up to risk 1 but you need to have mostly only him on your account.
Yes RR not so good but hard to find traders that constantly make say 5% per month with 10-15% DD so max 3 months recovery... Usually you find an average 3-5% per month for 30% DD.

[aheart]

Actually when i saw the that the statement last few month low drawdown, really tempted to up my risk. But then there's a 30 percent drawdown possibility as stated, so when we down the risk to 0.25, the ROI will average around 0.7 percent per month, is it worth it? The risk: reward is not great at all . I think trading at risk 1 is still very high though.

[arkoon]

Very seriously. I don't want to bash.

1 - loss is very within expectations. -10% vs -30% possible, but -30% a WCS. -10% a nice loss...
At least he used SL and protected the accounts. This is a very very very very very very very good point.

2 - bad point for me is, as he should take the less possible ever risk, he trades a new pair. For me it is better to do nothing than to do this. Sure probably bad luck did not help. But I would be a new signal provider here, I would so my best ever, so not trade a new pair, and take then additional risks.
Also we might think he did not let enough "space" between trades, but this is easy to tell after. It could also help us to exit quick...

3 - We have some history. But not so much as previous history is with Zulu, and Zulu has much more and different rules than here. So here trader has more freedom, but then a new style (example on Zulu it could be only flat stake). So it is worth observing more to get confident.

So overall. I think any serious trader should or set tiny risk, maximum .25, or continue to observe until they are confident. Market will be here tomorrow. Yes not being subscribed yet/observing you can miss a few months profit, maybe. But then you would be more confident, and if such a loss arrives, you will not turn off the copier.

So let's check if he recovers in say about 3 months. Any accident can happen but ideally it would be recovered in a correct period (thus RR is good).

[ste3fan]

For me increasing risk is martingale style...

[merau01]

Yeah, absolutely. I'm tempted to turn him up to 3x if I'm honest. A drawdown like this is more likely to result in accelerated gains than further losses.

Don't agree with this thinking at all. Passed losses have absolutely no bearing on achieving accelerated gains, and that seems to be the kind of mentality which is the reason most people never become successful in the long term.

I absolutely love this site, but I seem to see the same thing when a new trader starts about using increased risk because of such a long history, then new followers seem take what you say and get excited and then end up losing big. I know it's not financial advice at all, but I remember the same ting with HarborFx since his drawdown was so low it was advised that a bigger risk could be used, and then he hit a bad run then left due to personal reasons.

Anyway not really sure what my point was....

[Nick]

Will you still have him on 2x risk on your aggresive vip account?

Yeah, absolutely. I'm tempted to turn him up to 3x if I'm honest. A drawdown like this is more likely to result in accelerated gains than further losses.

[oandagut]

Hey guys,

You should have received the email about the 2 month complimentary subscription by now.

Keep in mind that Jay hasn't broken any rules here and every indication we have shows that he'll make a full recovery, it's just a matter of time.

I know losses hurt, but they're part of trading. Yes, this was a lot higher than we would like, but keep in mind that his max DD limit has been openly advertised as 30% with targeted returns in the 2-8% range per month. He's not obligated to trade for free, however he recognises the opportunity in being a part of this community and is committed to making money for all of us over the long term.

I believe I understand this guy better than most traders we've had on this site, our due diligence has been extensive and nothing that's happened has changed our opinion that he'll get the job done for all of us.

Will you still have him on 2x risk on your aggresive vip account?

[ste3fan]

I will still watch him. Maybe put some money again on him in january if I ll see something good.
Good luck Jay. Hope you will be still in the game for a long time